Dr Michael Lester believes Tasmanian voters becoming ‘more accustomed’ to minority governments

As Tasmanians wait for the final make-up of the House of Assembly, a Tasmanian political expert has advice for both major party leaders on who should form government. Read his thoughts.

Hobart Tasmania Wednesday 16th July 2025. Sky News / The Mercury Leaders debate. Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Leader of the opposition Dean Winter shake hands prior to the televised debate. Picture: The Mercury / Linda Higginson

Voter concerns about minority government stem in part from the historic two-party system but are “softening”, a Tasmanian political expert says.

Dr Michael Lester, who did his PhD on minority governments in Australia from 1989 to 2021, said there have been 25 minority governments in Australia including in federal parliament and every state and territory since 1989.

“Public concerns about minority governments stem partly from our two party system history and from the overuse of no-confidence motions as a gun-to-the-head approach by the crossbench to get their way on policy which leads inevitably to early elections,” he said.

“Often this is in response to the apparent inability of governments to properly engage with the crossbench.

“Despite that, concern appears to be softening.

“People are becoming more accustomed to them.”

Mike Lester was Jim Bacon’s senior political adviser.

Dr Lester, who was a journalist and adviser to the Bacon Labor government, said both the Liberals and Labor had “credibility problems” when it came to forming a minority government.

“Labor because they only have 10 seats and 25 per cent of the vote and the Liberals because their previous two minority governments have failed amid allegations of a lack of transparency and cooperation,” he said.

“Premier Jeremy Rockliff must convince the crossbenchers that this time he will make it work.

“In addition to convincing eight crossbenchers that he can form a stable government, Labor leader Dean Winter will face the same problem as (Former Labor Premier Michael) Field did in 1989 of convincing the Governor of a solid deal as well as the public he hasn’t reneged on pre-election commitments.

“While the Liberals have the advantage of incumbency and more seats than Labor, the only factor that the Governor needs to consider is who has the confidence of the Assembly – that is 18 votes – and can assure stability for a reasonable period.”

Former Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU) secretary Tom Lynch, Mike Lester, of North Hobart from Media Company CPR, and former Labor MP Scott Bacon

Dr Lester described moves to form a government by both parties as a “good thing” because it means “that both sides must engage the crossbench and negotiate an outcome”.

“If it is unclear as to who can govern and both Liberal and Labor claim they are better placed, then the Governor most likely will recommission premier Rockliff and instruct him to test his support in the parliament.

“To win the Opposition, Greens and crossbench independents would need to move a no confidence motion the Premier and a confidence motion in (Dean) Winter.

“All the successful minority governments in Australia have occurred when the premier fully commits to making it work and takes the lead to maintain openness and co-operation with the crossbench and where the crossbench recognises it cannot win on everything, hangs up the no-confidence threat and lets the government get on with governing.

“Whatever the outcome, it would be political suicide for the crossbench and opposition to send the next government to another early election.”

The Tasmanian Electoral Commission will on Tuesday update figures from Saturday’s election.

The make-up of the new parliament is still uncertain but the Liberals have secured 14 seats, Labor 10, the Greens five, four Independents with two uncertain.

Originally published as Dr Michael Lester believes Tasmanian voters becoming ‘more accustomed’ to minority governments