D-Day for election, but wait ahead for government clear picture
Tasmanian voters look set for a long wait for the ultimate outcome of today’s unexpected and unwanted state election. All you need to know ahead of the vote count.
Tasmania
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Tasmanian voters look set for a long wait for the ultimate outcome of today’s unexpected and unwanted state election.
With neither side predicted to gain a decisive majority, who forms the state’s next government is likely to be decided in negotiations between the major parties, the Greens and the new crossbench well after polling day.
A clear picture of who will ultimately govern in Tasmania’s 52nd parliament may not become clear until the House reconvenes sometime in September.
More than 400,000 Tasmanians are enrolled to vote to decide who among 161 candidates will fill the 35 seats in five House of Assembly electorates at the state’s fourth election in seven years.
The Liberals currently hold 14 seats and Labor 10. Eighteen seats are needed to form a majority government.
Opinion polling points to only relatively minor changes in the makeup of the next parliament from the one elected just 14 months ago.
Should the polls prove accurate and the Liberals take 14 or 15 seats, the makeup of the crossbench will prove vital to their chances of a record fifth consecutive term in office.
Mr Rockliff was helped back into a shaky – and ultimately short-lived – minority government by deals with three Lambie Network MPs in 2024.
The firebrand Senator’s party isn’t fielding state candidates this time and the Liberals have pointedly condemned “radical left-wing independents”.
From its current position, Labor has an equally torturous path to power.
Opposition leader Dean Winter has repeatedly ruled out doing a deal with the Greens, although his party appears open to possibly accepting their support on the floor of parliament.
With a good result, the backing of the minor party and a handful of left-leaning independents — plus the will to govern the party didn’t display in 2024 — he might be able to bring down the curtain on the Liberals’ 11 years in power.
This is the scenario that the bookies are favouring: Sportsbet has Labor at $1.43 to form the next Tasmanian government, the Liberals at $2.85; Tab.com.au has Labor at $1.38 and the Liberals at $2.85; and Pointsbet has Labor at $2.60 and the Liberals at $2.60.
The 2025 election was sparked when Labor’s no-confidence motion was passed by the House of Assembly on June 5.
With Mr Rockliff refusing to step aside and Mr Winter unable to form government, emergency budget bills were passed and an election called.
A presidential-style campaign followed, with the party leaders front and centre; with Labor adopting the campaign slogan: “a Fresh Start for Tasmania”, while the Liberals offered to “Finish the Job”.
Health, cost of living, the stadium dominated. Labor leaned heavily on its TassieDoc health policy while the Liberals went with TasInsure.
Amid a debt and budget crisis, there was an absence of major spending announcements.
Election 2025 will feature a wealth of dethroned former federal politicians seeking to restart their careers.
Bridget Archer in Bass, Gavin Peace in Braddon and Brian Mitchell in Lyons are rated strong chances to join former federal parliamentarians Eric Abetz and Michael Ferguson in the House of Assembly.
Some sitting members will face stiff battles to keep their seats: Liberal Nic Street and Labor’s Meg Brown in Franklin and Liberals Madeleine Ogilvie and Simon Behrakis among the nervous locals.
Independents Peter George in Franklin, former Attorney-General Elise Archer in Clark and former Liberal-turned-National John Tucker are among those expected to cause headaches of varying intensity for the major parties.
If the polls hold true, the nearest recent precedent for a slow-brewing outcome of Saturday’s election is the 2010 election, which returned 10 Labor MPs, 10 Liberals and 5 Greens.
That election was held on March 20. Labor’s David Bartlett announced a deal with the Greens on April 19 – 30 days after the vote.
The 2025 vote count is expected to be part of the extended process.
Polling places close at 6pm Saturday. The first results should appear by 6.50pm, with counting to continue until about 10pm.
The 2025 election has been characterised by a record pre-poll turnout of 100,000 plus, around one-quarter of the electorate.
Under the current legislation, pre-poll postal votes cannot be dealt with until 6pm Saturday closes – those not added to the count on Saturday night are expected to be counted on Sunday, followed by an expected final total of about 8000 telephone votes on Monday.
Further counting and recheck will take place during the week.
The Hare-Clark distribution of preferences and allocations of quotas will not begin until the deadline for postal votes passes on July 29.
That process is expected to deliver its final results about Friday, August 1 or Saturday August 2, with the final declarations to be made the following Tuesday or Wednesday.
The election writs are due to be returned to Governor Barbara Baker on August 18 and under the Constitution Act, the Rockliff ministry can remain in place another week from that date – although an interim cabinet can be sworn in if no resolution has been reached.
Whatever the result, parliament is not expected to sit until well into September, where a minority government might face its first acid test of confidence.
This election will be the first conducted under the provisions of the 2023 Electoral Disclosure and Funding Act.
In addition to stricter requirements around donations, eligible parties and candidates will be able to claim reimbursement from the public purse for administrative spending and up to $6 per formal first preference vote for those who get more than 4 per cent.
It will be a boon for parties, likely to deliver hundreds of thousands of dollars on top of current donations and a handy boost for independent and minor party candidates who poll well.
Originally published as D-Day for election, but wait ahead for government clear picture
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