Imbalance in Qld’s 30 electorate boundaries: 11 over, 19 under quota

Queensland’s booming population has triggered a looming electoral redistribution.

The electorates of southeast Queensland will likely be adjusted to take into account population growth in certain areas. Bowman, which was retained by the LNP with a smaller margin, may be adjusted to take into account changes in population in surrounding electorates. Data: ECQ

Queensland is facing a major redraw of its federal electoral map following the May 3 election, with experts and data pointing to significant population imbalances that will soon force a redistribution and potentially reshape boundaries of seats such as Bowman in Redland City.

Griffith University political analyst Associate Professor Paul Williams said Queensland needed another seat, given the size of the expanding population.

He said Queensland’s booming population had created unacceptable disparities across the state’s 30 federal divisions, with 11 electorates now over quota and 19 under.

However, under current rules, the Australian Electoral Commission cannot create a new federal seat in Queensland until a formal review a year before the next federal election, expected in 2028.

In the meantime, a redistribution of boundaries is set to begin within 30 days of the new parliament’s first sitting, but it must work within the existing 30-seat framework.

Griffith University’s Dr Paul Williams believes Queensland needs at least one new federal electorate to be created. Picture: The Courier-Mail

Dr Williams said the scale and speed of the population growth had caught even him off guard.

He identified Fisher, Ford, and Longman as electorates with unacceptably high populations, while Capricornia, Maranoa, Morton, Rankin, and Ryan were significantly underpopulated.

But he stopped short of suggesting the population imbalance significantly changed the outcome of last weekend’s election.

“There would have been no major or significant net advantage to either side if electorates were exactly the same size,” he said.

“You’ve got places such as Ford and Longman where there were massive population overreaches for those electorates, and where there were complaints from voters saying they never saw their local politician.

“If what voters perceived as a local member neglecting their seat was a cause in moving across to Labor, that would be partly attributed to the difficulty of a member managing a seat that’s 10 or 15 per cent above quota.

“The whole idea of the upcoming redistributions is to make it fairer.

“People say, ‘We’ve got too many bloody politicians’ — and then complain they never see one. It would be better government, better accountability and better representation for another seat.

“Everybody should really be interested because it’s going to affect the next election.”

While predicting exactly where a new seat might be drawn was difficult, Dr Williams pointed to southeast Queensland as the likely candidate.

He also said places including the Sunshine Coast, where the population was expected to grow by another 400,000 people in the next decade, would be considered.

Current AEC enrolment statistics back up Dr Williams’ concerns.

Longman now has more than 142,800 voters, 14.5 per cent above the state average of 124,692, while Blair was 13.9 per cent over, Wright 12.5 above and Fisher 11.6 per cent above the allowable margin.

Dr Williams said those seats would need to shed voters, triggering a ripple effect as boundaries were adjusted across the southeast.

Bowman, which covers all of Redland City, is just 1.4 per cent below the state average and well within the acceptable range but its strategic position means it’s unlikely to be untouched.

To the north, Bonner is underpopulated by nearly 9 per cent, while to the west, Griffith and Moreton are even further below quota.

Redland City mayor Jos Mitchell said she believed keeping the council city boundaries within one federal electorate created easier representation.

“It means we have one federal voice speaking on behalf on the local government area,” Mayor Mitchell said.

Electorates outside the southeast such as Capricornia have had changes in population. Images: AEC

If Bowman lost traditionally conservative areas while retaining more Labor-leaning suburbs, it could become a “notionally Labor” seat, a term used for redistribution modelling.

The AEC’s redistribution process will unfold over the coming year, beginning with draft boundaries, followed by public submissions and final determinations.

“The Queensland redistribution is scheduled to commence within 30 days after the first sitting day of the House of Representatives in the new parliament,” the AEC said in a statement.

“What constitutes a community of interests may sometimes depend on relatively subjective assessment.”

Any adjustment to Bowman could influence not only who represents Redlands but also what issues dominate local campaigns in future elections, Dr Williams said.

As a historically Liberal Coalition seat, even small shifts could prove politically significant.

Residents will be invited to have their say through the AEC’s Redistributions Hub once the process formally begins.

Originally published as Imbalance in Qld’s 30 electorate boundaries: 11 over, 19 under quota