Federal election 2025: LNP chances of regaining seat of Brisbane hurt by nuclear policy, polling shows

The Coalition’s hopes of winning the prized seat of Brisbane, and other key metropolitan seats, have been dealt a major blow by its own nuclear energy policy, new polling shows.

The Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton with Trevor Evans. Picture: NewsWire/John Gass

The Coalition’s hopes of winning the prized seat of Brisbane have been dashed by its own nuclear energy policy according to new polling by a breakaway Liberal-linked group.

But further collapse of the Liberal vote in the capital city seat won’t deliver a clear win for Labor or the Greens — with the vote expected to again come down to wire as it did in 2022.

Former MP Trevor Evans, who lost the seat in 2022, has returned for another tilt in Brisbane for the Liberals in 2025 with the Coalition hoping to extend its Queensland stronghold.

Peter Dutton’s $331bn nuclear policy stands in Mr Evans’ way — and all other Liberals in key metropolitan seats – according to new polling commissioned by breakaway group Liberals Against Nuclear.

The LNP Candidate for Brisbane Trevor Evans. Picture: NewsWire / Glenn Campbell

The UComms poll, of 1184 Brisbane voters on March 20, found just over half of voters (52.4 per cent) were less likely to vote for the Coalition in the seat due to its nuclear energy policy plan.

Another 16 per cent said their vote was unchanged and 31.7 per cent were more likely to vote for the Opposition due to its nuclear stance.

Among undecided voters 42 per cent said they were less likely to vote for the Coalition in the seat due to nuclear, while 30.9 per cent said their vote was unchanged.

Mr Dutton’s nuclear plan involves building seven sites across the country — two of which are in Queensland — at a cost of $331bn with the first to come online in 2036.

Labor candidate for Brisbane Madonna Jarrett. Picture: NewsWire/ Liam Kidston

The Coalition has pitched the plan as being significantly cheaper than the Albanese government’s renewables-only plan to get to net zero by 2050, with Labor in turn hitting back at the Opposition’s policy as unrealistic on cost and timing.

According to the Liberals Against Nuclear UComms poll Mr Evans’ primary vote in Brisbane sits at 31.2 per cent — a whopping 6.5 per cent lower than what it was in 2022 Liberal wipe-out when he suffered a 10 per cent swing against him.

Labor’s Madonna Jarrett has a primary vote of 23.2 per cent, while sitting Greens MP Stephen Bates would secure 24.2 per cent according to the poll — suggesting it will take days before a clear winner is known.

Australian Greens Brisbane MP Stephen Bate. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Liberals Against Nuclear spokesman Andrew Gregson, a former Tasmanian Liberal director, said the Coalition needed Brisbane to take government.

“To form Government, the Liberals must win Brisbane and seats like it across the country. To do that, candidates like Trevor Evans must attract undecided voters,” he said.

“The nuclear policy is pushing them away. The only way to fix this is to immediately drop the nuclear policy.”

Originally published as Federal election 2025: LNP chances of regaining seat of Brisbane hurt by nuclear policy, polling shows