Dave Wave raises hopes for Dutton’s Fortress Queensland

Labor’s vote collapse in outer Brisbane seats at the Queensland election has fuelled the Coalition’s hopes of gaining and holding critical ground in certain areas at the next federal poll.

Labor’s vote collapse in outer Brisbane seats at the Queensland election has fuelled the Coalition’s hopes of gaining and holding critical ground in suburban areas at the next federal poll, where cost of living will remain the number one issue for voters.

Senior ALP figures said the result on Saturday, where the Liberal National Party was elected to govern Queensland having spent 30 of the last 35 years in opposition, showed the importance of getting economic policy settings and messages right as voters struggling with soaring living costs are primed to turn against incumbents.

Despite regaining the state seat of Ipswich West after a by-election loss to the LNP, the swing of about 10.5 per cent against Labor compared to the 2020 Queensland election combined with the 8 per cent swing in the seat of Ipswich has put the corresponding federal electorate of Blair in play for Opposition leader Peter Dutton, according to Coalition sources.

But Labor insiders said they remained confident they would retain Blair, held by Labor MP Shayne Neumann with a margin of 5.23 per cent, with one source saying it was likely only being touted as a Liberal target due the party being on such a high water market they have limited options to pick up.

Now Premier-elect David Crisafulli (left) with federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton at the LNP convention in July

Meanwhile a senior Liberal source said the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held on a margin of 3.44 per cent, would be the No.1 defensive seat in the state at the next federal campaign, with long-serving MP Warren Entsch retiring.

They also expected Labor to target the Brisbane seat of Bonner, but said federal MP Ross Vasta had always been prepared for a tough fight given the electorate’s similarly slim margin of 3.41 per cent.

The Liberals were positive about a 4.6 per cent swing toward them away from Greens MP Michael Berkman in Maiwar, which overlaps with the federal seat of Ryan which Mr Dutton is trying to regain from the minor party.

Defeating Elizabeth Watson-Brown, who holds Ryan by just 2.65 per cent, was seen as a more likely prospect than the Coalition coming out ahead in a three-corner race with the Greens and Labor in the federal seat of Brisbane.

The Greens vote backsliding was Anthony Albanese’s silver lining from the Queensland result, with ALP sources saying it had put the inner south seat of Griffith more in play for Labor and further bolstered their chances in Brisbane.

Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said the challenge for the Prime Minister and Mr Dutton would be who can sufficiently realign themselves as representing the economic interests of the voters in suburban seats who had now had years of personal economic decline under both parties.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with outgoing premier Steven Miles

Mr Samaras said while there has historically been a separation between state and federal voting patterns, the weekend’s Queensland result fed into an emerging “consistent trend” across elections in multiples states that Labor’s primary vote was falling in the outer suburbs.

“Whenever presented with an opportunity, the lower-income constituents Labor has relied on in this areas will grab it with both hands, and if there’s no independent or other alternative the vote goes all over the place,” he said.

“They’re in the departure lounge, but they’re not sure where to go.”

Mr Samaras said while many of these once-safe Labor outer suburban communities were still saying they could not vote Liberal, the current trend would also make outer west Melbourne and western Sydney difficult for the Albanese Government.

Mr Albanese will visit Brisbane on Monday where he will deliver a speech at the Mining and Energy Union Convention, telling the members only Labor would deliver higher wages for Australian workers.

“As we speak, there are pay rises in the pipeline for thousands of mining workers in New South Wales and Queensland,” he will say.

Labor’s “Same Job, Same Pay” laws are due to come into effect on November 1, which Mr Albanese will warn would be under threat if Mr Dutton won government.

“He wants to rip up every new right workers have negotiated,” he will say.

“And wants to cut every pay rise your members have earned.”

Originally published as Dave Wave raises hopes for Dutton’s Fortress Queensland