Analysis: David Crisafulli is this LNP generation’s last hope of power in Queensland
While the polls suggest an easy victory for the LNP, October 26 will almost certainly deliver several unpredictable results, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.
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Conservatives are on the cusp of gathering on those unfamiliar government benches for the first time in a decade – but the election is anything but over.
While the polls suggest an easy victory for the LNP, October 26 will almost certainly deliver several unpredictable results.
The loss of Gaven and rising star minister Meaghan Scanlon to the LNP would be a brutal blow to Labor’s future.
Katter’s Australian Party could build its force to five members with a victory in Mirani and the far north and Torres Strait seat of Cook.
Don’t be shocked if Labor, with the help of LNP preferences, defends McConnel, Cooper and takes back South Brisbane from the Greens.
In central Queensland One Nation has its best – perhaps one of the last – chances of re-entering the parliament with James Ashby.
Uncertainty over future access to abortion services and uneasiness about David Crisafulli’s polished style could spoil the result in some six tight electorates the LNP needs to win off Labor.
Mr Crisafulli is this LNP generation’s last hope of grasping the levers of power in Queensland.
They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 state general elections.
Conservative hopes rest on Crisafulli’s ability to do what Lawrence Springborg, Tim Nicholls and Deb Frecklington were unable to: Win.
The LNP needs 13 seats to form a majority government – a mammoth task at any election.
Should the polls be wrong – like they were during the 2019 federal and 2016 US elections – the old wounds of the Liberal and National parties merger would likely reopen.
Behind Mr Crisafulli, there’s no potential leader waiting in the wings.
The next generation – Gold Coast MPs Sam O’Connor and Laura Gerber – are probably still two elections away from leadership.
This election will deliver anything but a uniform result.
If Tourism Minister Michael Healy holds Cairns, like both parties believe he will, the LNP will need to find a victory elsewhere.
It’s the same story in Aspley where some within Labor believe Transport Minister Bart Mellish is a 50-50 chance to hold.
For eight years Mr Crisafulli has been considered the LNP’s best hope.
As Annastacia Palaszczuk pushed ahead with her second term then opposition leader Deb Frecklington was being “bullied by the back room boys” of the LNP.
There’s no suggestion Mr Crisafulli was part of the bullying, yet his potential as a leader – intended or not – stalked Ms Frecklington during these days.
An ABC report on June 15, 2020 noted, the name “often mentioned as a potential challenger” was this Townsville-turned-Gold Coast MP.
Still, in less than one week, however, surviving Labor MPs will likely be left to – for the first time since 2012 – rebuild.
While Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick are almost certain to contend for the party leadership, The Courier-Mail’s YouGov poll indicates there’s merit in Steven Miles remaining opposition leader.
Name recognition – albeit as the 50c fare and TikTok guy – provides a strong base for Labor to mount its assault and retake One William St.
Choosing the right opposition leader is critical if Labor is to again contain the LNP to one term.
Critics wrongly argue Mr Crisafulli has no plan for Queensland.
He does, it’s just unambitious.
Though the LNP leader has outlined clear KPIs and pledged to hold his ministers accountable should they not be reached.
It’s noble in principle, but the shallow talent pool of his backbench will make sacking cabinet members a difficult task.
In a show of faith to the public service, Mr Crisafulli should consider leaving Directors-General in their posts for the first year of his government.
Do away with the traditional night of the long knives and instead give bureaucrats – perhaps even their nemesis Mike Kaiser – the chance to serve an LNP government in Queensland’s best interest.
This election campaign has offered two uninspiring visions for Queensland.
It’s been light on excitement, intrigue and interaction with ordinary voters.
Yet it’s largely been a civil contest of (mediocre) ideas.
As you enter a polling booth this week be polite to the political candidates putting themselves up for public judgement and the volunteers who deeply support them.
Stop for a second to appreciate the significance of the small numbers you’re about to write on a ballot paper.
Thank an Electoral Commission of Queensland worker for their time and buy a sausage or cake from the hardworking school groups.
This democratic ritual we have every so often is something Queenslanders, Australians, must never take for granted.
Originally published as Analysis: David Crisafulli is this LNP generation’s last hope of power in Queensland
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