Chance of cyclone forming this week to increase to 20-50 per cent

Up to 200mm of rain could fall over Darwin and the western Top End this week as a tropical low, which sits in the Arafura Sea, has a 20 to 50 per cent chance of forming into a cyclone the Bureau of Meteorology has said.

A tropical low has formed over the Arafura Sea. There is a moderate chance it could form into a cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. Picture: BOM

Up to 200mm of rain could fall over Darwin and the western Top End this week as a tropical low sits in the Arafura Sea.

The likelihood of the low forming into a cyclone off the NT coast will increase from tomorrow.

There is also a low north of Broome, which could also develop into a cyclone and with the NT low, is pulling the long awaited monsoon over the Territory, said Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Sally Cutter.

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a 20 to 50 per cent chance of the low forming into a cyclone tomorrow or Wednesday.

The chance of a cyclone forming on Monday is low – at a five to 20 per cent chance.

Ms Cutter said forecasters were closely monitoring the situation.

“It depends on how long it stays over the water as to whether it becomes a cyclone,” she said.

“At the moment the environment is not unfavourable.”

Tropical activity is on the increase across northern Australia. A tropical low has formed in the Arafura Sea and could develop into a #TropicalCyclone this week. Find our TC Outlook at https://t.co/pjLAaYhKSO. We will keep you informed with the latest information. pic.twitter.com/OOSdWDTJt7

— Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory (@BOM_NT) January 5, 2020

The NT low formed over the Arafura Sea several days ago and is predicted to develop as it moves slowly east through the Arafura Sea during the next day or so before moving towards the southwest, according to the information on the BOM website on Sunday afternoon.

“Although the movement and intensification of the tropical low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a tropical cyclone developing increases slightly from the middle of the week.”

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Ms Cutter said residents in the western Top End should expect rainfall totals of up to 200mm in the coming days.

Territorians in the Top End but further afield could also expect some storms and rain.

Ms Cutter said the low could cross along the north coast of the NT and move west across the Top End.

Since the beginning of the wet season, Darwin has received between 200mm and 300mm.

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Ms Cutter urged people to be prepared in the event a cyclone does form later this week.

“We are in the cyclone season and with any time we have a monsoon trough developing over the water there’s a risk we will see a cyclone,” she said.

“It’s that time of year that you need to be prepared.”

If the cyclone does form it will be the first tropical cyclone this wet season for the NT.

Today there is a 40 per cent chance of rain, tomorrow and Wednesday that increases to 60 per cent and on Thursday, 70 per cent. For more weather info head to bom.gov.au