The Northern Territory 2024 election is shaping up to be an interesting contest with one person the likely kingmaker

After two Northern Territory elections held in unusual circumstances, journalist Matt Cunningham says we can expect to see things return to some kind of normal in 2024.

The Member for Blain Mark Turner among Darwin unionists as they celebrate the eight-hour day with a march through the Darwin CBD. Picture Glenn Campbell

The 2024 Territory election will likely be close.

After two elections held in unusual circumstances - one on the back of four years of CLP chaos resulting in a Labor landslide, and the other at the height of the worst health crisis in a century - things will return to some kind of normal in 2024.

(If that’s ever possible in the NT).

As it tries to win a third term, every seat will be crucial for Labor.

And one seat in particular is shaping as a major headache.

The Palmerston electorate of Blain has perhaps provided more controversy than any in Territory politics.

It was held by Terry Mills, who was rolled after just seven months as the CLP Chief Minister, then won by Nathan Barrett in a by-election after Mills resigned, before Barrett became embroiled in one of the more bizarre sex scandals in the Territory’s political history (a significant achievement).

Mills won the seat back as an independent in 2016, then lost the seat to Labor four years later when his new Territory Alliance party capitulated.

Within six months Labor’s new MLA Mark Turner was caught up in a sex scandal of his own and was kicked out of the Labor caucus after losing the trust of then-chief minister Michael Gunner.

That might ordinarily have spelled the end of Turner’s political career.

Territorians could bring in a change of government at the next election. Picture Katrina Bridgeford.

But rather than retreat to the wilderness, the former police officer has turned his exile into an opportunity, and in the process, he has created a big problem for Labor ahead of the 2024 poll.

By early next year Labor will need to make a decision about what to do with Turner.

He remains a member of the party but it’s unlikely he’ll be welcomed back into the caucus.

Labor will need to pre-select another candidate.

That will be no easy task given the understandable reluctance of most sensible people to go into politics.

But even if they find one, Labor will have a tough time winning Blain.

There’s nothing more important in Territory politics than incumbency, and Turner has made the most of his since being sent to Labor’s naughty corner.

Freed from the constraints of party discipline, he’s been able to speak out on issues concerning his constituents.

Crucially, Turner has been a vocal support of our police and defence force personnel - a certain vote-winner in Palmerston.

While the government has been a defending a police force that’s clearly in crisis, Turner was calling for a Royal Commission.

While the Veterans Affairs Minister Paul Kirby was on leave during the Darwin sittings of the Royal Commission into Defence Suicide – forcing the Chief Minister to make a last-minute dash to keep up appearances – Turner has been voicing his support for our troops.

Most importantly he’s been out and about in the community, turning up at everything bar the opening of an envelope (even, at times, when he hasn’t been welcome).

Mark Turner could be a kingmaker in NT politics. Picture GLENN CAMPBELL

And when you’re Mark “Tiny” Turner’s size you’re hard to miss.

Over four years Turner will have had a chance to meet most voters in Blain and make an impression.

He’ll have to overcome the stigma of the so-called “cocaine sex scandal”, but people are more likely to make a judgement based on personal assessment, than a newspaper headline that will be three-and-a-half years old by the time the election rolls around.

When Labor pre-selects its candidate for Blain, Turner will almost certainly quit the party and stand as an independent.

A subsequent preference deal between Turner and CLP (not a certainty but a certain possibility) would make life very hard for Labor.

If Labor can’t find 13 seats without Blain, thing could get even more interesting.

Could the man whose political career looked dead and buried become the parliament’s kingmaker?

Stranger things have happened.