Territorians will judge Gunner Government on this Budget

NT Budget 2019 was supposed to be a triumph for Treasurer Nicole Manison and the Territory Labor Government

NT Treasurer Nicole Manison with Chief Minister Michael Gunner. Territorians will judge Gunner Government on this Budget, writes HAYLEY SORENSEN

NT Budget 2019 was supposed to be a triumph for Treasurer Nicole Manison and the Territory Labor Government.

They came to power in 2016 promising to return the Budget to surplus by 2019/20.

We all know what happened in the intervening years.

The Treasurer calls it a “perfect storm” of economic conditions.

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We know what happened in the intervening years. GST payments from the Commonwealth were lower than expected. The post-Inpex cliff hit hard.

It was a rough ride, and it wasn’t all the fault of the new Government.

The full scale of the problem was revealed in December, when former WA under-treasurer John Langoulant’s excoriating review revealed the Territory’s net debt would hit $35 billion by 2030 if spending continued at current levels.

The answer was to halve expenditure growth from 6 per cent to 3 per cent.

In her first Budget post-Langoulant, Ms Manison has tried to signal she is serious. The infrastructure spend will go backwards slightly. Recurrent expenditure is predicted to fall by 2 per cent, exceeding the Langoulant target.

But not all savings are commendable. Cuts to primary industries might end up costing the Territory more in opportunity in the long run than they will provide in short term budget relief. Now is the time to invest in the cattle, cropping and horticulture industries.

Ms Manison has done her best to put a positive spin on this year’s Budget. She says the worst is over and better times are ahead.

The positive rhetoric is understandable. The Government needs to start talking up the Territory economy after months of doom and gloom sapped business confidence and likely contributed to the decision of some business owners to shut up shop.

But the figures reveal we’re a long way from being out of the woods yet. State final demand will fall another 1.7 per cent, after tumbling 9.4 per cent.

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Small and medium businesses are, as politicians are so fond of saying, the engine room of the economy. But there’s little in this budget for them. The Territory is still relying on major projects to come online to revive the economy.

As the Inpex experience has shown, over-reliance on those big projects means we will be perpetually stuck in the boom and bust cycle. The Government needs to focus on improving the economy’s underlying growth to provide a sustainable path. Projects such as the shiplift, which will create an industry which previously didn’t exist, should be prioritised.

Ms Manison is right that there are better times ahead. But it will be a long and difficult wait for them to arrive.