NT News election editorial: Labor’s four years in power has been a disappointment for the Territory

WHEN Labor won the 2016 election with a huge majority, some political commentators said the result meant Labor’s reign in the Territory would last at least eight years. But a day before the 2020 election, their hold on power is hanging by a thread.

Territory Alliance leader Terry Mills, CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro and Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner before the NT News/Sky News leaders’ debate

WHEN Labor won the 2016 election with a huge majority, decimating the CLP to just two seats, some political commentators said the result meant Labor’s reign in the Northern Territory would last at least eight years.

But a day before the 2020 election, their hold on power is hanging by a thread.

Under siege from a resurgent CLP and the new kid on the block, Territory Alliance, Chief Minister Michael Gunner and Labor are in for the fight of their lives to retain power.

The traditional two-horse race between Labor and the CLP has been turned on its head by a third player – former CLP chief minister Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party.

Labor is entering the election with 16 MLAs, the CLP has two, Territory Alliance three.

In any other election around the world, those numbers would usually set the scene for a comfortable Labor victory.

But Territory elections are different.

Given the small population in each electorate, magnified by our transient nature, huge swings are par for the course.

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The 2016 election result was an aberration.

Given how unpopular the CLP Government was, Mr Gunner and Labor simply had to turn up to win.

Despite their resounding victory, Labor won seven of its seats by margins of 5.2 per cent or less.

Three Labor seats – Braitling, Katherine and Karama – were won by less than 1 per cent.

The 2020 election landscape is vastly different to 2016 because no one really knows how tomorrow will play out.

The nearly 8000 extra Territorians who voted Labor four years ago compared to 2012 — which led to a 18.8 per cent swing away from the CLP’s primary vote — will ask themselves whether they made the right choice.

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Under Labor’s watch, even without the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, our economy is as bad as it’s ever been and we are a laughing stock to the rest of Australia.

Faced with a burgeoning debt, which will hit $8.2 billion next year, the economic credentials of Mr Gunner and Treasurer Nicole Manison are in the gutter.

Labor entered the 2016 election with a promise it would deliver a $62.85 million surplus in 2019/20 and net debt would be $3.075 billion in 2019/20.

While they have largely attributed their economic failures to the end of construction on the $50 billion Inpex gas plant in Darwin, the truth is Labor has had four years in power to plan for and fix it.

Given it was almost inevitable they would win power 12 months out from the 2016 election, you could argue Labor has had five years to get it right.

They have failed miserably.

The size of the debt Labor has created for a small jurisdiction is one we cannot sustain and they deserve to be punished at the ballot box for it.

We are the worst performing economy in Australia.

It wasn’t that many years ago we were the best.

During the past four years, we have witnessed a worst-in-nation population drain and hundreds of Territory businesses have closed their doors.

Across the Territory, particularly in the Top End, some of your favourite restaurants, retailers, cafes, manufacturers, financial businesses … gone forever.

The Gunner Government’s population campaigns have failed because, without a job to come to, it remains difficult to attract people to live in the Territory.

The only way to turn around our fiscal crisis and attract new people is to supercharge existing industries and create new ones.

Do voters really want to award Labor another four years and risk the next four years being as bad, or worse, than this term of government?

It is disconcerting that only three months out from this election, Labor announced the Territory Economic Reconstruction Commission to try and show it was doing all it could to get us out of our deep black hole.

One wonders where would be today had such a commission been established soon after Labor won power in August 2016.

In terms of jobs growth and building the economy, the Gunner Government sat on its hands for its first two years in power.

It took until November 2018 for it to establish the Fiscal Strategy Panel, chaired by John Langoulant, to provide an independent assessment of the NT’s fiscal outlook and develop a plan for budget repair.

Given their two significant cries for help and the loss of thousands of jobs since they took office, Mr Gunner and Ms Manison have proven they are incapable of managing the economy.

As the two most senior members in Cabinet, they have shown they don’t have the economic answers the Territory needs, particularly as we emerge out of the coronavirus crisis.

The Gunner Government has been walked over by senior public servants and there has been a distinct lack of accountability for department CEOs who have blown their budgets and missed targets.

While there is some light at the end of a long tunnel with projects such as the $20 billion Sun Cable solar farm near Tennant Creek, the $500 million Darwin City Deal and $400 million ship lift, the immediate focus needs to turn to the resources we have in our own backyard.

The mining and manufacturing industries alone are worth $5.6 billion to the Territory economy, accounting for 22.7 per cent of gross state product, and they employ more than 6000 people.

With an array of untapped resources our minerals, renewables and onshore gas industries’ can be nation-leading, generating thousands of jobs for the Territory.

Red and green tape needs to be slashed so investment and approvals can be fast-tracked.

Other industries that need to be a focus over the next four years are tourism, agribusiness and water infrastructure development.

All these industries can be developed while maintaining our world-class environment and culture.

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Given 10 of the 16 seats it holds are in Darwin and Palmerston, it is not surprising the Gunner Government is seen as one which has neglected the bush.

Whoever wins power needs to make a concerted effort to develop our remote and regional areas because our economy cannot reach its full potential if we rely too heavily on the major business centres of Darwin, Alice Springs, Katherine, Nhulunbuy and Tennant Creek.

High-quality roads, existing and new, are essential for the Territory to fulfil its economic needs but it is an investment — with the help of the Commonwealth — that needs to be made.

As the economic reconstruction commission’s first report points out, it is crucial Aboriginal Territorians become leaders in our economic future, given 48 per cent of the land and 80 per cent of the coastline is owned under the Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Act 1976.

The Territory needs to build on its already powerful Indigenous leadership with our Aboriginal population sitting around 75,000 - or 30 per cent - of the NT’s overall population.

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The growing and expensive 21,000-strong public service is a significant drain on our coffers but none of the three parties have so far shown the foresight, courage and willpower to make significant reform to rein in unnecessary waste.

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In addition to a basket case economy, the Territory has also suffered a youth crime problem under Labor.

For too long, this newspaper has reported on crimes affecting law-abiding Territorians and business owners.

It is an issue driving people away from the Territory and the government has to shoulder the blame for the increased community safety concerns which have emerged in the past four years.

The problem has unsurprisingly slowed during COVID-19 but the government, police and justice system need to come together to create sustainable solutions for the future.

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While Mr Gunner has displayed moments of strong leadership during COVID-19, he and his government have to be marked on their entire term of office, not just the past few months.

In regards to his management of COVID-19 Mr Gunner, without question, deserves credit.

He has diligently followed the advice of health authorities and national cabinet, which was always the right course of action in the midst of a global pandemic.

In recent weeks, however, Mr Gunner has over-politicised the pandemic and put unnecessary fear into the minds of Territorians.

Voters need to ask themselves whether they genuinely believe Ms Finocchiaro or Mr Mills would ignore the same expert health advice if they win power.

It was only six months ago in the Johnston by-election, in its first real test since it took government, Labor’s primary vote suffered a 21 per cent hit, forcing Mr Gunner to apologise to the droves of voters who deserted Labor.

To believe their handling of coronavirus has turned a majority of those disgruntled voters back to Labor is wishful thinking.

Putting most, if not all, of their eggs in the coronavirus basket to get re-elected is a high-risk and untested political strategy.

It is a strategy that has been questioned behind closed doors by senior Territory Labor figures.

The fact they are not campaigning heavily on their achievements over the past four years and what they will do for the next four years shows Labor’s lack of regard for the democratic process of an election.

If the COVID-19 play works, Labor strategists will revel in the glory because prior to the pandemic, Mr Gunner and his government were as disliked as any Territory government in history.

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While Labor’s four-year reign has been a disappointment for the Territory, attention needs to turn to the alternative parties – the CLP and Territory Alliance.

Since Lia Finocchiaro became leader at the start of the year, the CLP has turned a corner.

While it also suffered a poor result in the Johnston by-election, the CLP enters the general election with a quality team of candidates.

Ms Finocchiaro has shown herself to be a political warrior who is smart, articulate and vibrant.

She is, however, battling questions from some parts of the community about her ability to be chief minister and we can’t help but think another year in the Opposition Leader’s chair would have made the CLP more electable.

If the CLP falls agonisingly short this election, they will rue not making Ms Finocchiaro their leader earlier.

The longer the election campaign has dragged on, however, many believe she has the attributes to become the most popular CLP chief minister since Marshall Perron in the 1990s.

If she can pull off a miracle victory, Ms Finocchiaro will become the party’s first ever female chief minister.

Heading into tomorrow’s election, she is surrounded by experienced business and community leaders including former Cattlemen’s Association CEO Tracey Hayes (Fannie Bay), former Tennant Creek mayor Steve Edgington (Barkly) and former Alice Springs mayor Damien Ryan (Araluen).

An issue for the CLP is their star candidates are running in seats which will be extremely tough to win and there is no guarantee that Ms Hayes, Mr Edgington and Mr Ryan will get over the line, given their opponents in each electorate.

The CLP’s policies on the economy, youth justice, crime, energy, health and education are likeable and a Finocchiaro-Hayes leadership team is appealing to the electorate.

Aligned to the federal Coalition, a Finocchiaro Government would have a much healthier working relationship with the Morrison Government in Canberra, which will be in power until at least 2022.

Given the Turnbull Government played no part in the 2016 Territory election campaign, it was significant that Prime Minister Scott Morrison this week publicly endorsed a vote for Ms Finocchiaro and the CLP.

Ms Finocchiaro and Ms Hayes are highly regarded in Canberra and, if elected, they would get a gold pass inside the offices of Australia’s most powerful decision makers.

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For a party established in November last year, Territory Alliance has made significant inroads with the community.

Led by Mr Mills, the party has given people who are disenfranchised with the major parties a genuine alternative.

But as a former CLP chief minister, Mr Mills enters the election with a baggage problem.

As much as he would like to confine it to history, he is forever tarnished with the fact he increased power prices by 30 per cent soon after he became CLP chief minister in 2012.

But as time has gone by and judging by the party’s result in the Johnston by-election, Territory Alliance remains a player despite the gloss seemingly wearing off in recent weeks.

Mr Mills’ backflip on fracking – now saying the party would ban the practice if elected – threw caution to the wind.

Tomorrow night’s results will determine whether or not his backflip will go down in Territory electoral folklore as a genius or dunce political move.

Another ideological issue for Territory Alliance is, from the outside looking in, they do appear to be a party led by people with axes to grind.

Mr Mills, who is in for a huge fight to hold onto his own seat of Blain, has former CLP treasurer and health minister Robyn Lambley as his deputy.

Former Labor leader Delia Lawrie, who was replaced by Mr Gunner, and Mr Mills’ former chief-of-staff from his time in Opposition, James Lantry, are two key policy advisers.

The Mills-Lambley-Lawrie-Lantry leadership team has already sparked friction within the party and its team of candidates.

If they did form government, how could such a team with diverse backgrounds and beliefs be trusted to agree on a way forward for the Territory?

Mr Mills’ backflip on not providing costings for his election promises made a trust issue for him and his party even larger.

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On the numbers alone, it is difficult to see a path to majority government for the CLP.

But given all the momentum appears to be with them, it is not out of the question.

For Territory Alliance, the task seems impossible.

However, given the way preferences will fall in a majority of seats, there remains a real prospect that the CLP and TA will win more combined seats than Labor does on its own.

Under this scenario, a coalition government made up of CLP and TA candidates is still a possibility.

Given the three-horse race, the Territory’s first-ever election hung parliament looks increasingly likely.

If a party fails to win a 13-seat majority, negotiations will take place and the new government will likely be made up of a complex group of individuals from differing backgrounds and political ideologies.

If there is no clear result tomorrow night, keep a close eye on the independents.

If some get elected, which is a high chance in Yingiya Guyula’s seat of Mulka, Kezia Purick’s seat of Goyder and Beverley Ratahi in Nelson, they could become the unlikely kingmakers.

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Given their performance over the past four years and lack of policies during the election campaign, Labor does not deserve your vote.

If Labor somehow manages to cling to power, it won’t be because of their overall record in government.

Of the two opposition parties, the CLP has a higher quality group of candidates and a more comprehensive and workable plan for the Territory’s future.

Its leadership team of Lia Finocchiaro and Tracey Hayes has more political, economic and social appeal than Territory Alliance’s team of Terry Mills and Robyn Lambley.

The next four years are critical for the Northern Territory’s future and your vote is extremely important.

Like everyone, we want to see the Territory prosper.

Whichever party wins government, they are in the privileged position to lead us until 2024.

After eight years and two poor governments for different reasons, whichever team is elected can’t afford to stuff it up again.

Their number one and most important priority has to be rebuilding the economy.

If they get that right, everything else will fall into place and the Territory can finally get on the road to prosperity.

It is a road we have promised to be on for too long.