Matt Cunningham: New data shows shift in NT crime statistics

New crime statistics reveal Northern Territory's tough-on-crime policies are showing early signs of success, with property crime down 11.6 per cent in Darwin.

The latest Northern Territory crime statistics, released last Friday, make for interesting reading. While it’s easy to get carried away with small data sets, there is a trend that seems to be emerging since the CLP began implementing its tough-on-crime agenda late last year.

And it’s a positive one.

For much of the past decade, crime rates in the NT have been rising at an alarming rate.

A perfect storm of events, allowed and supported by an NT Labor administration and a Federal Coalition government, led to the tripling of the number of incidents police were responding to in just five years.

These events included the implementation of recommendations from the 2017 Royal Commission into the Protection and Detention of Children, the onset of Covid-19 and the associated doubling of welfare payments and decision to allow early access to superannuation, the removal of mutual obligation for Centrelink recipients and the brief but devastating return of alcohol to Aboriginal town camps.

Having played the starring role as guinea pigs in a social experiment, Territory voters decided last year they had had enough.

The CLP was elected in a landslide victory and set about putting a stop to the runaway train. It’s faced stiff opposition along the way.

The Government’s changes to bail laws, the youth justice act, school attendance policies and public drinking laws were met with claims of racism and worse.

One of the more interesting claims has been that its policies go against the “evidence” of what works when it comes to reducing crime.

This is a slogan that seems to have developed into an incontrovertible truth without anyone seeming to bother if it’s supported by evidence.

But the evidence we’ve seen here in the Territory would seem to cast doubt on its veracity. There’s little doubt the “evidence-based” policies implemented following the Royal Commission coincided with an increase in the crime rate.

But these examples are not limited to the NT.

The damage left after youths with golf clubs smashed a window at Sky News reporter Matt Cunningham's Darwin home during a terrifying attempted break-in while he and his family were home.

In the 1990s, crime in New York City was out of control.

As many as 2000 people were being murdered every year and 11,000 crimes were being committed each week.

In 1994, new mayor Rudi Giuliani implemented a zero-tolerance approach to crime, including the “broken windows” method of policing, targeting minor crimes such as vandalism, loitering and public drinking.

By the end of the decade, the crime rate had halved, and the number of murders had fallen by 70 per cent.

It’s too early to get a clear picture of the effectiveness of the CLP Government’s policies.

But the early signs show the trend is heading in the right direction.

Last week’s crime statistics show there were 923 crimes against the person committed in July 2025, by far the lowest number for any months since December 2023, when police began collecting the data through their new SerPro system.

A comparison of the first seven months of 2024 to the same period in 2025 does show a slight increase (2.5 per cent) of crimes against the person.

But there is also a dramatic decrease from December last year (1305 offences) to July this year (923 offences) which coincides with when the Government began implementing its new policies.

Chief Minister and Police Minister Lia Finocchiaro said since coming to government, a total of 135 new police officers have joined the Northern Territory Police Force.

Property crime across the Territory is also down 5.4 per cent across the Territory and 11.6 per cent in Darwin.

The battle is far from won, but for the first time in a long time there are signs of improvement.

What should concern the government is that the gains being made in our bigger cities and towns are not being replicated in the bush.

This is not surprising given the reduction in police services, including the closure of some police stations, in remote communities over the past decade or more.

The Government’s next challenge is to ensure the offenders they have taken off the streets are properly rehabilitated.

The current situation in the NT’s corrections system in not sustainable.

Holding people in crowded cells in a police watch-house will do nothing to create a better society.

Some work has begun, but our prison system needs to be expanded and our corrections workforce increased so people sentenced to a period of incarceration are engaged in meaningful training and rehabilitation, not just racked and stacked.

This was happening a decade ago when the Sentenced to a Job program was in full swing, and incarceration rates in the NT were falling.

But the overall picture is an encouraging one.

If the trend in the crime rate continues, those accusing the Government of failing to take an evidence-based approach might need to find a new argument.