Matt Cunningham analysis of role independents will play in 2024 NT Election

Voters have grown tired of this Labor Government, but that’s not necessarily translating into a vote for the CLP, writes Matt Cunningham.

According to the pollsters and those who have commissioned their work ahead of the August 24 election, there are a couple of interesting trends that keep emerging.

One is the woeful primary vote for both the major parties.

Before voters are pushed to make a firm decision, support for Labor and the CLP is soft. Voters have grown tired of this Labor Government, but that’s not necessarily translating into a vote for the CLP.

This is translating into a stronger showing for independent candidates, and there are two names, in particular, that are resonating well with voters.

Member for Araluen Robyn Lambley at her office in Alice Springs. Picture: Jason Walls

One, Araluen independent Robyn Lambley, will come as no surprise.

The former CLP deputy chief minister quit the party during the chaos of its last term in government.

She works hard in her electorate, has held her seat since 2012, and will continue to do so for as long as she chooses to remain in the parliament.

But the other independent winning favour with his constituents is a little more unexpected, particularly for those of us who exist in the Darwin Bubble.

Mark Turner, independent Blain MLA. Picture GLENN CAMPBELL

Former Labor MLA Mark Turner looks increasingly likely to hold his seat as an independent. The man who was forced out of the Labor caucus due to the so-called “cocaine sex scandal” could provide one of the most interesting results on election night.

A senior CLP source says he is a certainty to hold, while a well-connected Labor man has been warning his own party for two years that leaving Turner in the sin bin was a mistake that might come back to haunt them.

Turner’s popularity proves a Territory politics truism.

In a jurisdiction where each seat only has about 5000 registered voters, hard work and incumbency are the key to electoral success.

An incumbent MLA who works hard has a huge chance of being re-elected.

It’s why in many seats, this election will be a referendum on the work ethic of the sitting MLA.

Those who have worked hard throughout the term will likely be rewarded, regardless of their political stripe.

Their cause is aided by a taxpayer-funded slush fund – also known as an electoral allowance – of more than $60,000 a year that can be spent however a member chooses.

Labor’s toughest holds will be in Port Darwin and Leanyer, where retiring MLAs Paul Kirby and Nicole Manison will see the party give up the advantage of incumbency.

The NT incumbency factor also means falling out with your party does not necessarily lead to political death, as is usually the case in federal politics.

Freed of the shackles of his former party, Turner has turned his political exile into an opportunity to put his head down and go into bat for his constituents.

He has been a tireless advocate for the owners of shoddily built homes in Bellamack when few wanted to know about them.

The former police officer has also repeatedly gone into bat for rank-and-file members of the Northern Territory police, an issue that eventually saw him expelled from the ALP.

Mr Yingiya (Mark) Guyula at Budget Estimates. Picture: Che Chorley

Turner, along with Lambley and Mulka MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula, now shape as potential kingmakers in an election that could see neither major party achieve a majority.

Who would he support in that scenario?

He’s not saying at the moment.

But the question raises another electoral possibility that’s being discussed openly in the more sensible sections of the Labor Party.

Eva Lawler has turned her party’s fortunes around since becoming chief minister.

But her focus on the top job has necessarily pulled her away from her own Palmerston electorate.

The two biggest issues at the election – crime and the cost-of-living – are biting even harder in Palmerston.

Could Labor hold enough seats to form a minority government but lose its chief minister along the way?

An election that looked like a one-sided affair six months ago is now throwing up all kinds of possibilities.