Fear of change, not voter satisfaction, gets incumbent politicians re-elected at pandemic polls
TERRITORY Labor’s election strategy of ‘remember we kept you alive’ – unheard of before this election – was potent and one others widely replicated, writes DENISE CAHILL.
Opinion
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THE incumbent leader has so far been kissed with the winning stick while challenging parties have been left playing catch up.
That’s been the case for the Northern Territory, Queensland, ACT and New Zealand over the past few months.
But it’s not a show of support for how that incumbent party has dealt with the pandemic.
It’s a fear of change.
There was no way to know, for certain, how an opposition party would have reacted to the global pandemic – if they would have closed borders, shut down the economy, hired security guards for mandatory quarantine.
Life has changed remarkably, too much, for everyone this year and being able to choose the status quo in voting for the incumbent government no doubt influenced voters at the recent Australian and New Zealand polls.
Coronavirus was the only change the majority of voters could handle in 2020.
And you better believe the incumbents played on that during election campaigns.
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They listened to the vocal majority on borders, opening or closing the economy, and coronavirus restrictions.
Governments around the nation, and across the ditch, were combing through NT Labor’s election strategy, as the once unpopular incumbents became the first election victors during the pandemic in August.
This was an election fought and won on convincing voters they should re-elect the government that kept them safe, through hard work and luck, during a pandemic.
As it turns out, the strategy of “remember we kept you alive” – unheard of before this election – was potent and widely replicated.
There has been a fear of the “new” this year and NT Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro was a victim of that.
Not only would her CLP government be new for the Territory, but she’s a new leader.
In four years, Ms Finocchiaro will have dropped that “new” tag and the NT election will be a more even playing field.
Queensland leader Annastacia Palaszczuk also enjoyed the spoils of incumbency in a pandemic election, winning a historic third term with Labor recording a 5.2 per cent swing across the state.
Ms Palaszczuk’s popularity soared during the pandemic with Queenslanders backing her border closure, as fear over COVID-19 drove voters into her arms.
In the ACT, Chief Minister Andrew Barr retained power and secured a sixth parliamentary term with support from the Greens.
Jacinda Ardern secured a thumping victory in New Zealand’s election, with the Prime Minister framing the election as a referendum on her government’s handling of the pandemic and on who New Zealanders should trust to lead the economic recovery.
While electors in the NT, Queensland, ACT and New Zealand have voted for the status quo, it will be a more even playing field in three or four years when, fingers crossed, coronavirus will be something we live with but doesn’t dictate our lifestyle.
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West Australian incumbent Mark McGowan might just slip through on the coronavirus-induced victory trend, with West Australian voters going to the polls in March next year.
As the Premier who kept his border closed the longest and ultimately kept community transmission at bay, there’s a good chance voters will want to avoid change as the state’s economy recovers.
South Australians, Victorians and Tasmanians head to the polls in 2022 and the NSW election will be in 2023.
So far, US President Donald Trump appears to be the first leader who the coronavirus didn’t benefit during an election.
Denise Cahill is the Head of News at the NT News.
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