Chief Minister Michael Gunner’s job on the line in Johnston by-election

SATURDAY'S Johnston by-election is a vote on three important questions

Chief Minister Michael Gunner with Labor’s candidate for the Johnston by-election Joel Bowden

• Chief’s D-day: We’re underdogs for by-election, says Gunner

SATURDAY'S Johnston by-election is a vote on three important questions.

1. How on the nose are Chief Minister Michael Gunner and Labor?

2. Do people still have faith in the Country Liberal Party after their 2016 election drubbing?

3. How much cut-through has Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance had with the electorate?

It is for these three reasons why tomorrow’s vote is a crucial guide as to what will transpire in the August general election.

The reality is political experts have no idea how Johnston will play out. There’s a school of thought that Joel Bowden’s high profile, along with the big margin Labor won the seat by in the 2016 election, makes him the clear standout to win.

But, on the other hand, it is expected Labor will cop a huge backlash in the electorate given the performance of the Gunner Government over the past three-and-a-half years.

Just how big a backlash they will cop is unknown but Mr Gunner’s job is riding on it.

Ken Vowles won the seat for Labor with a huge 65-35 two-party preferred result in 2016.

While the fifth floor and Labor is playing down the Johnston result, if Mr Bowden doesn’t win it makes Mr Gunner’s chief ministership untenable.

Make no mistake, tomorrow’s by-election is the biggest test Mr Gunner’s leadership has faced.

If Labor loses the by-election suffering a 15 per cent or more swing against it, that would extrapolate to it being left with only three seats after the August election.

Those three seats would be Stuart (now held by ex-Labor MLA Scott McConnell), Wanguri (Nicole Manison) and Nightcliff (Natasha Fyles).

A 15 per cent swing in the August election would mean Mr Gunner would lose his seat of Fannie Bay.

Other ministers who would lose their seats would be Dale Wakefield (Braitling), Paul Kirby (Port Darwin), Gerry McCarthy (Barkly), Selena Uibo (Arnhem) and Eva Lawler (Drysdale).

More than 4000 Territorians are ready to tell Labor, the CLP and Territory Alliance what they really think.

It’s a fascinating contest.