James Morrow: Albanese government’s issues are not going anywhere fast

Policies that the Albanese government triumphantly locked in last year are already beginning to look like a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’, writes James Morrow.

One month into 2023 and the Albanese government’s honeymoon period is now as forgotten as a new year’s resolution gym membership card.

Instead, it’s all headlines about the appalling violence in Alice Springs, the Prime Minister’s anaemic fly-in, fly-out response, a predicted four more interest rate rises by August, happy talk about avoiding a recession as the Treasurer tries to re-invent capitalism and photos of the PM having a beer at the Australian Open.

But it’s not just bad headlines.

Policies that the government triumphantly locked in last year are already beginning to look like a case of “be careful what you wish for”.

Chaos in the energy markets, brought about by price caps and pushback from producers who feel that on the one hand they are being hounded out of business for sins against climate and on the other are asked to keep the lights on for less money, is just the beginning.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has had a week of bad headlines— but that’s not all Australians should be worried about, writes James Morrow. Picture: Gary Ramage

Australians should brace themselves for more of the same with Treasurer Jim Chalmers flagging more such interventions across the economy in sectors as diverse as housing, manufacturing and “data and digital”.

Having vaguely figured out that the long run of money printing that started with the GFC and reached its peak with Covid won’t cut it anymore, Chalmers now looks keen to tap our superannuation and perhaps even our property portfolios to keep things going in the name of “values”.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Picture: Gary Ramage

And of course there is the Voice to Parliament, which was supposed to pass handily on nothing more than the vibe of the thing and secure Albanese’s legacy as much as Paul Keating’s Redfern speech but which has crashed smack bang into the reality of the need for practical solutions to the dreadful problems within Indigenous communities.

The fact that we have already reached this point should come as no surprise.

The basic physics of politics were on Labor’s side going into last May’s election and the pent up anger among progressives who felt dudded by Scott Morrison’s shock 2019 win – and much of his subsequent behaviour – was always going to be an advantage for Albanese.

Yet Albanese made the mistake of understanding what happened at the last election not as a cautious transfer of power borne of a rejection of Morrison but rather as a mandate to remake the nation.

Federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese claims victory in the 2022 Australian federal election. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

More than that, the current crises facing the government – and by extension the nation – were all foreshadowed by the election campaign.

Media outlets such as this one, which pointed out the then-opposition leader’s left wing roots, were lambasted and lampooned by Albanese’s supporters.

Yet for those who followed the stories documenting Albanese’s long history on the left and noted the fact that in the Hawke government he worked as an advisor to Tom Uren, one of Hawke’s most anti-reform ministers, what has happened since should come as no surprise.

The man who on the campaign trail couldn’t have associated himself more with Bob Hawke if he lit up a Romeo y Julieta cigar mid-speech is instead now acting like a two-bit Gough Whitlam.

So if the honeymoon is over, does that mean the country is headed for divorce?

Not hardly.

Another basic rule of political physics is that it takes a long time for voters to publicly recant their choices.

Voters line up to cast their ballot at the 2022 election. Picture: Steve Pohlner

Like many who have married in haste but repented at leisure, voters swept up in the whole change of government Australians will still tell pollsters everything is fine … for now.

But that will be no consolation for a government whose whole plan was to hope the enthusiasm of last May would carry them through sweeping reforms and into a second term, likely after an early election.

Now that the momentum is gone, the Prime Minister’s challenge is that none of his problems can be solved simply by waiting out a news cycle or cynically trying to touch up former Morrison government ministers about their failings in office.

Instead they are deeply structural and not going anywhere – and in the case of the Treasurer’s attempt to undo the last three or four decades of economic reform, that is just the way they like it.

The longer chaos is seen to reign in Alice Springs and other remote Indigenous communities, the more signature agenda items like the Voice will look like the province of virtuous urban types who live in a world of PowerPoint slides and LinkedIn posts.

A cold winter or hot summer next year will expose a power grid that contrary to the promises of the renewables lobby is becoming less, not more, stable as new technologies fail to keep up with the dynamiting of coal stacks and nuclear remains a non-option.

And the big promises that a Chalmers’ mixed economy will somehow pay big dividends for ordinary voters – and not the big corporates and unions who will be cutting up the spoils of the economy with government – are a massive risk for Labor.

It is worth noting that New Zealand’s kinder, gentler, vibe was the thing former PM Jacinda Ardern ran for years on a very similar platform, promising 100,000 new homes to fix the housing crisis.

When she left office in January in the face of apocalyptically bad poll numbers, 1365 had been built.

All of which puts one in mind about the old joke about leaders throughout history trying socialism despite its proven record of failure: “I’m sure it’ll work … this time.”

Originally published as James Morrow: Albanese government’s issues are not going anywhere fast