Liberal Party, Nationals must change to avoid an ‘unhappy marriage’ if they reunite as a Coalition

There are several issues the Liberals and Nats must sort out before they reunite. Otherwise, the only thing worse than a messy breakup would be another three years of sniping, writes Clare Armstrong.

Analysis: The Coalition is (maybe) getting back together.

Nationals are calling it a “pause” on their break up with the Liberals, but the chances of a permanent reunion are reasonably high.

Notwithstanding the pressure from senior Coalition figures outside the parliament, the practical realities of a split and a genuine desire by some MPs to reconcile, a key barrier to reunification has lifted.

By dropping their request to be exempted from shadow cabinet solidarity, or rather claiming it was never a non-negotiable, the Nationals have paved the way for Sussan Ley to go back to her Liberal party room to work through the policy demands put forward by the rural party.

Despite the urging of past Coalition prime ministers for a swift resolution to mitigate the damage of the last 48 hours of bitter public and private mudslinging, rushing the process is a risk.

The only thing worse than a messy breakup would be another three years of sniping and undermining because both sides feel stuck in an unhappy marriage.

It will take time to work this one out on the remix.

There’s likely enough Liberals who will opt to back the Nationals’ policy demands rather than commence official divorce proceedings.

Of the four asks - nuclear, supermarket divestiture, a regional fund and telecommunications in the bush – the most contentious for the Liberals is supermarkets, though few would argue the issue was worth blowing up an 80-year relationship.

But an agreement is also dependent on the Nationals not shifting the goal posts, and there will be Liberals conscious of not appearing to capitulate to their junior partner.

There will also be hold outs within the Nationals who aren’t interested in crawling back just yet.

At one of its lowest ebbs in history, both the Liberals and the Nationals believe the other is more to blame for their situation.

Many Liberals feel their party has for too long been the “dog wagged by the Nationals’ tail,” which has decimated their ranks in Australia’s metropolitan areas.

While the Nationals, assured and confident in their identity, won’t no part in the dramas inevitably on the horizon for the Liberals as the humbled party tries to “eat, pray, love” a pathway back toward electoral relevance.

The fundamental problem neither side has been prepared to acknowledge, is that they are both currently on a sinking ship.

Can they work it out? Sussan Ley and David Littleproud during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

While it’s important to figure out what caused all the big damaging holes in the hull, moving to separate ends of the deck doesn’t actually protect anyone from getting wet.

So significant was Labor’s election victory that it would take an unimaginable series of huge political bungles and successive disasters for the party to lose the next election.

Knowing it’s a minimum six-year journey back to electability could be a freeing experience for the Coalition, it means they have the time to work through the problems that have plagued the parliamentary and organisational ranks for more than a decade.

But resisting the motivation-crushing inevitability of defeat in 2028 is not going to be easy.

For years, past Liberal leaders have essentially bought off the discontented flank of their junior Coalition partner with extra cabinet positions and billions of dollars in funding commitments for the regions.

Rather than rush down this path again, the Coalition needs to spend some time in therapy.

Like any couple on the rocks, the Liberals and Nationals to see things from the others’ point of view and find common ground upon which to rebuild.

Originally published as Liberal Party, Nationals must change to avoid an ‘unhappy marriage’ if they reunite as a Coalition