YouGov poll reveals Labor ahead in federal election and who stands to lose their seat
A new poll shows the “most likely” result and which seats are set to see major changes. SEE WHO’S IN DANGER
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A new poll shows the “most likely” election result is Anthony Albanese falling one seat short of a majority government, as momentum builds behind Labor and threatens to knock two senior Liberals and a high-profile Greens MP out of their seats.
The YouGov MRP - a type of poll that uses a large sample size to model results for individual seats - released on Sunday has a central projection of Labor winning 75 seats, the Coalition picking up five overall to hold 60, the Greens losing two to then hold only two, and the remaining 11 seats to make up the rest of the crossbench.
SEE THE MPs MOST IN DANGER BELOW
Though this is considered the “most likely” outcome when Australians vote on May 3, the YouGov model projected a range of results, finding Labor was on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats, the Coalition taking 55 to 68, the Greens winning between one and three, while independents expected to end up with seven to 12.
To form majority government a party must hold at least 76 seats, meaning the latest result has put Anthony Albanese in a much better position to do so than his opponent Peter Dutton.
Despite the strong result for Labor, the Prime Minister is still expected to take a hit in five seats, with the ultra-marginal Sydney seat of Bennelong held by first-term MP Jerome Laxale, the NSW south coast seat of Gilmore held by Fiona Phillips, along with Anne Stanley in the south west Sydney seat of Werriwa, Gordon Reid in the central coast seat of Robertson and also former Tasmanian state Labor leader turned 2025 candidate for Lyons Rebecca White all forecast to lose to the Coalition.
Picking up these must-win seats will help Mr Dutton, but the Opposition’s gains are projected to be offset with losses in two Victorian seats and a NSW seat.
Nationals MP Pat Conaghan is projected to lose his regional NSW seat of Cowper to an independent, while senior Liberal Dan Tehan is on track to lose his regional Victorian seat of Wannon to an independent challenger and his frontbench colleague Michael Sukkar is projected to lose his outer Melbourne electorate of Deakin to Labor.
Labor’s losses are also potentially going to be offset by two wins against the Greens in Queensland, one in the three-way contest for the city seat of Brisbane and another by knocking out first-term Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather in the nearby electorate of Griffith.
The YouGov MRP, which was based on 38,629 interviews undertaken earlier this month, showed Labor has achieved a 10-seat turnaround since a similar survey was conducted in February.
In that time Mr Albanese has announced a raft of health initiatives, which the Coalition then matched, including $8.5 billion to lift GP bulk billing rates, more than $500 million for women’s healthcare and also slashing medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme to $25 from January.
YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said Labor was now only one seat short of a majority in a “notable change” from the previous MRP in February.
“This is a decisive change in the Australian political landscape – from a likely Coalition government in February to a likely Labor government now,” he said.
“The turnaround is because of a 1.3 per cent swing to Labor which sees the Coalition fall behind in 10 key marginal seats that they were projected to win our previous projection.
“As the election nears, the data points to a very dynamic campaign.”
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