Who will win federal election? Toowoomba suburb of Newtown considered bellwether for eventual winner

It’s the leafy Toowoomba suburb with a strong mix of character homes, working families and retirees. But in one of the most conservative seats in the country, this area has a knack for picking the next government.

Kirsty Dreier. Newtown residents share their thoughts on the upcoming election. Picture: Nev Madsen.

Newtown is easily one of Toowoomba’s most fascinating suburbs.

Perched just two minutes from the CBD and known for its strong mix of post-World War II homes, amazing schools and shopping centres, it was the first residential area to be subdivided outside of the city centre in 1865.

It has also has a knack for picking the next Federal Government.

Newtown is one of just three booths in the conservative seat of Groom to vote with the past five majority governments, according to new data from The Chronicle and NewsCorp.

Listed as a bellwether or “volatile” suburb politically, Newtown voters have shown a willingness to move with either party over the past 18 years and voting with the eventual government almost every time.

The area predicted the 2007 “Ruddslide” before voting with the LNP several times, only missing the 2010 minority Labor government.

While Groom has voted consistently with either Liberals or National party candidates over the course of its existence, areas like Newtown, North Toowoomba and Rockville offer a unique opportunity to learn from genuine swing voters.

The verdict from residents isn’t positive for the major parties, particularly Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Coalition.

Mother-of-two Kirsty Dreier said she wanted the next government to focus on cost of living, pointing to the sudden spike in fuel costs as an example.

“The rising cost of fuel and groceries is crazy,” she said.

“The cost of fuel has become an issue for me, I’m spending $200 a week on petrol (for work) and that’s jumped $100 a week, so it’s a big cost.

“I’ve got two kids and with work and travel I do 150km a day.”

Ms Dreier expressed considerable contempt for both the Liberals and Labor, saying she would explore other alternatives for her first preference.

“I’m a big fan One Nation, the Greens and all that, I like what they stand for – not Labor or Liberals,” she said.

“I like what they stand for, I just feel like the Liberals and Labor have their agendas not where they need to be.

“I feel One Nation and the Greens are more thinking about the little people.”

Terry Brown is among several Newtown residents sharing their thoughts on the upcoming election. Picture: Nev Madsen.

Mr Morrison’s management of natural disasters like the 2019 bushfires, Covid-19 and the recent flood events was also a point of contention among other residents, with all who spoke with The Chronicle unhappy with his handling of the crises.

“Scott Morrison is poor, I think he’s a disgrace to be honest,” Newtown resident Terry Brown said.

“He’s running the worst administration since (Joh) Bjelke-Petersen’s corrupt regime in Queensland, and I’ve never seen that at a federal level.”

Mr Brown said he wanted the next government to prioritise more health funding, cost of living, public transport and action on climate change.

Newtown mum Kristy Williams was also hesitant to praise Mr Morrison, adding she wanted a proper climate policy addressed by the winner of the election.

“The floods and the fires, he didn’t handled those very well, and that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence,” she said.

“On the other hand, with Covid and things like that, we got off a lot easier than other countries.

“Environmental issues is one of the big ones for me, around climate change.

“I don’t necessarily want to vote Greens, because they can be a little bit one-sided, but on the other hand they are driving the issue (around climate change).”

Pensioner Dawn Scott, who lives near the primary school in Newtown, said she was undecided on who would get her vote, but noted cost of living as a major factor.

“I’m on a pension and I live here on my own, and every time you buy the groceries, there are dollars added on. It’s mainly the cost of living (for me),” she said.

“I’ve always voted Labor, but I’m not sure this time.

“(Morrison)’s on a bit of a downer, I don’t think he’s as good as what he was when he first came in.”

Originally published as Who will win federal election? Toowoomba suburb of Newtown considered bellwether for eventual winner