The bitter leadership fight engulfing Labor

A lot of names have been tossed up to replace Bill Shorten. But there is one other factor that could have a big say in the next Labor leader.

ANALYSIS

The Labor leadership search will throw up some fascinating combinations as everything from state to factions to personal appeal are tossed into the calculation.

For example, maybe we should stand by for a possible Albo/Joel leadership team representing the priorities of inner urban Australia and the anxieties of rural and regional voters.

That’s just one coupling among the possibles/probables now being considered within the Labor Party as it painfully hauls itself from the wreckage of its 2019 election campaign.

And as much as a few ALP sources might say factionalism won’t play a role in the final decision, they sure will. Again for example, Anthony Albanese is from the left and Joel Fitzgibbon from the right.

There is no rush to select a leader to replace Bill Shorten. There is time for a civil and constructive consultation with Labor rank-and-file members who will have a vote along with Caucus members.

It is the two-strand ballot which might put off some leadership candidates who are uncomfortable with the “beauty contest” of the rank-and-file ballot and believe Caucus should determine its leader.

Chris Bowen appeared to represent this view today when he formally announced his bid to become Opposition Leader, while ruling himself out as deputy.

“It used to just be Caucus. I would expect that if it was just a Caucus vote, I would do pretty good,” he told reporters.

“It’s not just that, it’s the party members vote.

“Albo, I’m sure, wouldn’t have it any other way.”

It was a reminder than when contesting the leadership against Bill Shorten in 2013 Mr Albanese won the membership vote but was rejected by Caucus.

Labor Party member Anthony Albanese.

But we still cannot be certain of that Caucus’ makeup, just as the vote count has yet to conclude for the entire Parliament.

There will be several factors guiding the ballot result.

One push will be for a woman candidate following Tanya Plibersek’s decision to stand aside from the leadership contest. One possible contender for the leadership of deputy’s post might be Victorian MP Clare O’Neil.

There is considerable dejection within the ALP that Penny Wong is in the Senate and not the House of Representatives.

Party managers also would be looking for a balance between the biggest Labor states, Victoria and NSW. And they would be keen for a Queenslander to be elevated to help placate the anger shown to Labor candidates on Saturday.

That means finance spokesman Jim Chalmers would be on their lists as leader or deputy. There is not doubting Mr Chalmers’ ability or his senior role in the party’s future, but he has not given a firm commitment to stand.

Others having the leadership run over them include Mark Butler in South Australia and

Tony Burke in NSW, who has yet to comment in public on his position.

And what of Mr Bowen’s chances?

If he were elected leader his first task would be to dismantle the economic policies which Labor found were so unpopular with the broad electorate. A hyper-partisan Morrison government would not credit Labor with heeding the electorate and reassessing policies. It would more likely accuse a Bowen Labor of hypocrisy.

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen.

Mr Albanese has solid credentials on not just “fighting Tories” from his inner Sydney seat of Grayndler but of fending off Greens.

And he can sell a policy with a searing line and cogent argument while not scaring voters.

But there is another constituency, beyond the progressive holdouts which backed it and independents on Saturday.

Certainly he would stand by the climate change philosophy – although perhaps not the detail – favoured by many urban voters.

Labor was rejected on Saturday by voters in rural and regional seats. The ALP holds just six rural seats nationally and nothing in Queensland north of Noosa.

Joel Fitzgibbon saw his vote in Hunter – the land of the coal fields - reduced by 10 per cent while One Nation had a swing to it of 22 per cent.

He knows acutely the resentment towards Labor from miners and ordinary workers generally as a result of election policies and their campaign marketing.

Whether or not Mr Fitzgibbon gets a tick on leadership, his concerns will have to be addressed by the person who does.

Originally published as The bitter leadership fight engulfing Labor