Shock poll lands another blow to Peter Dutton’s election campaign

Fresh polling has shown the damage done by Peter Dutton’s shaky start to the federal election campaign — but voters are not behaving how you’d think.

• Albo’s been rubbish but Dutton, stop the Grim Reaper act

A shaky start to Peter Dutton’s campaign has seen a drop in the Coalition primary vote since February but most of the movement has been to minor parties and not Labor, according to the latest RedBridge-Accent tracking poll of 20 marginal seats.

The third wave of the exclusive tracking poll of key marginals in NSW, QLD and Victoria has found the Coalition’s average primary vote has dropped 5 per cent since late February to be now only 36 per cent.

But only one per cent of the primary vote movement has gone to the Government with the rest going to ‘other parties and candidates’ – aside from the Greens, who were stable 12 per cent.

Labor’s support also remains much softer than the Coalition’s, with more than half of its voters – 57 per cent – saying they were only soft or leaning towards Labor compared to 38 per cent of the Liberal and National Parties’ vote.The movement away from the conservatives appears to have been largely driven by a drop in Mr Dutton’s net favourability rating which deteriorated five points from -11 to -16.

In contrast Mr Albanese’s net negative rating improved slightly from -11 to -8 and is now much better than the -16 he had in the first tracking poll in February.

Across the 20 seats RedBridge estimates Labor now leads the Coalition 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent compared to March when the Coalition led 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent and February when it led 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

In these seats the Government is also now polling better than it did at the 2022 election and according to Accent’s Dr Shaun Ratcliff is now close to winning a majority in its own right.

The poll, which was conducted just as President Trump was unveiling his tariff plans, showed an 8 point jump in the percentage of voters who said the ability to get on with him would influence how they decide to vote with 67 per cent of people now saying it is either very or somewhat important.

And on that question Mr Dutton still leads Mr Albanese 27 per cent to 23 per cent but the lead has narrowed from March when he led him 31 per cent 22 per cent.

On the other hand voters marked down Mr Albanese’s performance on handling the tariffs with only 18 per cent viewing it favourably, compared to 40 per cent who gave it a thumbs down.

Labor now leads the Coalition 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

The Government is also now polling better than it did at the 2022 election and according to Accent’s Shaun Ratcliff is now close to winning a majority in its own right.

Dr Ratcliff said the Coalition primary vote was bleeding off to minor parties and independents.

“However, due to preference leakage, this is benefiting Labor, which is now polling better in these key battleground seats on a two-party basis than it did at the 2022 election,” he said.

He said the change had been driven by an improvement in voters’ perceptions of Mr Albanese, and the performance and policies of Labor, particularly on housing and healthcare.

“Although voters still rate Labor poorly on most salient issues, the trajectory is one of improvement,” he said.

“On the other hand, there has been a decline in voters’ favourability of Peter Dutton, who started the year slightly more popular than Albanese but now appears to be a drag on the Coalition’s support.

“This is especially with younger voters and women, who are more likely to report seeing or hearing something recently that made them feel less favourably to Dutton and the Liberal Party.”

The Coalition primary vote is bleeding off to minor parties and independents. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

RedBridge director Tony Barry said Coalition had been “following Labor’s campaign plan” which is now translating into an improved vote share for the government.

“The danger for the Opposition is that these numbers are now putting scoreboard pressure on the Coalition, and they respond through panicked announcements or positions that are tactical and not strategic,” he said.

“If the Coalition are going to pull back these numbers they need to stop chasing the noise and start focusing on owning the economic narrative with some salient ideas that offer voters hope.”

But he said with a continued high soft vote there was still a chance the Coalition could get back into the election.

“These soft voters are looking for real change not loose change and at this point they can still be persuaded by either party if they present a stronger economic offering,” he said.

The poll of 1,003 voters was conducted online between April 4 and April 9.

Originally published as Shock poll lands another blow to Peter Dutton’s election campaign