Shock poll: Greens could win second federal seat in this Brisbane suburb

The Greens claim shock polling reveals a veteran federal Labor MP is facing a wipeout so huge in this Brisbane seat it would deliver them their second Lower House MP, but Labor is playing down the results.

The Greens claim they are on track to oust veteran federal Labor MP Terri Butler from her Brisbane seat of Griffith next month, giving the party only its second Lower House MP, based on their analysis of the latest polling.

The Greens’ say their face-to-face polling technique, which so far has surveyed 25,000 voters in the affluent eastside suburb, revealed a mammoth 7.42 per cent swing to its candidate Max Chandler-Mather.

That would put him on par with the 31 per cent primary vote Ms Butler recorded in the 2019 election.

And if replicated in the nearby federal seat of Brisbane, the Greens would leapfrog over Labor into second place and challenge sitting LNP MP Trevor Evans.

But Labor downplayed the figures, saying it was not a true poll.

“This isn’t a poll. This is a Greens party hype campaign,’’ an ALP spokeswoman said.

“It’s part of their political strategy, but that doesn’t make it true.

“Terri and Labor volunteers across Griffith are working hard every day to take the fight to Scott Morrison and elect an Albanese Labor government.’’

Greens candidate for Griffith Max Chandler-Mather during a noise rally outside Brisbane Airport Corporation. Picture: Tara Croser

The Greens technique has, however, proved uncannily accurate in recent years.

It predicted Michael Berkman’s winning 41 per cent primary vote in the 2020 state election to within 1 per cent.

It also predicted Councillor Jonathan Sri’s historic 14 per cent swing in 2016, when he became Brisbane’s first Greens councillor, to an accuracy of 0.9 per cent.

And it forecast Greens state MP Amy MacMahon’s 2017 winning primary vote of 34 per cent, in former Labor Treasurer Jackie Trad’s seat of South Brisbane, to an accuracy 0.5 per cent.

“It’s so accurate because the sample sizes are so large,’’ Mr Chandler-Mather said.

“We have taken a snapshot of about 3000 people once a month this year, totalling just under 25,000 in the past 12 months.

“This would be a record primary vote for the Greens at a federal level in Queensland if it comes to pass.’’

Griffth MP Terri Butler has a high profile and has won her seat three times, but new polling suggests she might not pull off a fourth victory. Picture: Martin Ollman

Even more alarmingly for Labor, there appeared to be a significant trend to the Greens this year.

The January face-to-face polling revealed 24.14 per cent of people would vote for the party, growing to 26.81 per cent in February.

By March, that had increased again to 27.19 per cent, and the latest survey earlier this month revealed 31.12 per cent would choose the Greens first.

“That blew me away. We polled 3940 people this month,’’ Mr Chandler-Mather said.

“At the start of this year I was much less bullish about our chances.

“Many of these people are telling us it is the first time they will have voted Greens.

“They are looking for change but Labor’s small target strategy has not given them any other options.’’

Max Chandler-Mather speaks to local Liz Logan in Holland Park while doorknocking. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen/The Australian

The polling is even more concerning, if correct, for Team Albanese because Ms Butler has not put a foot wrong so far in this election campaign.

She is well known locally after winning three elections in a row and has a high media profile.

After winning the seat in 2014 following former Prime Minister and Griffith MP Kevin Rudd’s resignation, she went on to win again in 2016 and in 2019, when Mr Chandler-Mather achieved a 6.67 per cent swing to the Greens.

“We’ve run campaigns during the flood, on aircraft noise and the Bulimba Barracks (redevelopment) so we have a platform people feel they can connect with,’’ Mr Chandler-Mather said.

“When I was doorknocking in Balmoral, the aircraft noise was genuinely unbearable — people have had enough.’’

A Greens-organised rally outside Brisbane Airport Corporation. Picture: Tara Croser

The Greens are the only one of the three major parties to commit to all eight demands from community lobby group Brisbane Flight Paths Community Alliance, including a curfew and flight cap.

Labor has not promised a curfew, while the LNP recently unveiled a plan to overhaul the controversial flight paths and introduce a long-term airport operating plan — with the possibility of a curfew or cap if those actions did not address noise.

The Greens polling uses a conservative methodology where people who decline to take part are assumed not to be supporters of the party.

Those who do take part in surveys are asked if they have ever voted Greens before, and if they are thinking of doing so this time.

Respondents’ leaning is also ranked, from very unlikely to vote Greens to highly likely to vote for them.

Originally published as Shock poll: Greens could win second federal seat in this Brisbane suburb