Only way Scott Morrison can win Federal Election against Anthony Albanese

While the Liberals appear to have abandoned hope of a 76-seat majority, there is one path to victory for Scott Morrison.

Scott Morrison was up early and chasing a second election miracle in the outer suburbs of Melbourne.

While the Liberals appear to have abandoned hope of a 76-seat majority there is a path to minority government for the Prime Minister if he can flip enough seats.

That’s if he can offset expected losses in NSW, Victoria, WA and Queensland

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Jenny Morrison vote at Lilli Pilli Public school in the seat of Cook. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images.

In other words, if both the ALP and the Liberals end up in the early 70s seat count, but without enough seats for either side to nail a 76-seat majority.

One other wildcard to watch – the Greens in the Queensland seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith for all of the talk of independents they could finish ahead of Labor in one of those seats.

PM starts race with 76 seats, Liberal polling says primary lifting

The Prime Minister starts the race with 76 seats – there’s no fat there.

It’s exactly the number of seats he needs to form a majority in the House of Representatives.

The Liberal Party tracking poll has seen the primary vote for the Coalition lift in the final days of the campaign to 40 per cent. The Labor vote is down but they get preferences from the Greens.

The Labor Party reckon their tracking poll is up to 53-47 on a two party-preferred basis. They can’t both be right.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison starts the race with 76 seats. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images.

Follow our live coverage as Australia decides if Scott Morrison or Anthony Albanese will be our Prime Minister

Liberal losses

So what are the Prime Minister’s options? Let’s start with the seats the Liberals expect to lose but more importantly we will then take a look at the seats they can flip to offset those losses.

The Liberals expect to lose four seats: the NSW seat of Reid, the SA seat of Boothby, the Victorian seat of Chisholm and the WA seat of Swan.

There’s broad agreement on those seats from both sides of politics so if those seats don’t flip on election day the ALP is in big trouble.

That takes the Prime Minister down to 72 seats. But there’s other seats that he may also lose including Bennelong in NSW.

While the Liberals appear to have abandoned hope of a 76-seat majority there is a path to minority government for the Prime Minister. Picture: Jason Edwards

That takes him down to 71. There’s also Pearce in WA, if that falls he’s down to 70.

After campaigning with wife Jenny in the Perth seats of Swan, Pearce and Hasluck on Friday, the Prime Minister made a quick trip to the marginal seat of Cowan held by Labor MP Anne Aly on a 0.9 per cent margin. So even in WA, he’s still looking for seats to flip.

The Liberal seat of North Sydney, NSW could fall to Labor or the independent Kylea Tink.

Liberal gains

Here’s where it gets interesting for the Liberals and things get messy for Anthony Albanese.

Starting in the Top End, the Liberals are hopeful of flipping the seat of Lingari, NT which includes Alice Springs.

The Liberals are also hopeful that former NSW Liberal frontbencher Andrew Constance can take Gilmore, NSW from the ALP.

Then there’s Corangamite in Victoria, that could also fall to the Liberals. And there’s an outside chance in McEwen in Victoria a Labor-held seat in outer suburbs with a big UAP Clive Palmer vote.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have both cast their vote on election day. Picture: Toby Zerna

On paper this seat should not be in the mix but the Prime Minister visited it this morning which tells you something.

The seat of Parramatta, NSW is “line ball” according to the Liberal Party. It’s very marginal and wasn’t won by a big margin so that’s another Labor seat that could swing back to the Liberals.

“So my view is, we’re going to, we’re going to struggle in seats in New South Wales. In terms of Reid, Bennelong, North Sydney,’’ a Liberal source said.

“I think we’re going to hold on in Wentworth, but I think we’re going to win Gilmore we will retake that and I think Parramatta is line ball which offset the other losses.

“In Queensland people are saying we could lose Ryan and Brisbane but I don’t think so. I think our primary vote sits at 41 in parts of Queensland, not in Brisbane. Our primary votes are too high.

“I think Scott’s in minority government between 73 and 74.”

The PM was in the Victorian electorate of McEwen on election day morning before making his way to his own electorate of Cook by the afternoon. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images.

Then there’s the question of whether or not Labor’s Kristina Kenneally is in trouble in the Western Sydney seat of Fowler. 

She is being challenged by an independent candidate Dai Lee. 

“And then the interesting thing for me will be what happens in Fowler, NSW if she if she loses to Dai Le,’’ a Liberal source said.

“I think Scott forms a government with (SA independent) Rebekha Sharkie, (Queensland’s) Bob Katter and someone like Dai Le. I think Labor will be, you know, 70. At best, because I think they’re going to lose seats as well.”

It’s worth paying close attention to where the leaders are on the final day of the campaign.

On Friday, Anthony Albanese was in the SA electorate of Sturt, where the ALP is rushing in resources it believes Boothby is a lock.

The PM was in the Victorian electorate of McEwen and cancelled plans to visit Chisholm suggesting that’s gone, before heading to his own electorate in NSW to vote.

‘Great sense of responsibility’: PM outlines his legacy

Speaking in his electorate of Cook this afternoon, the Prime Minister thanked his constituents for their support.

“Well, there’s nothing like coming home,’’ he said.

“Nothing like coming home here to the Shire where Jenny and I have made our home and our family life, and for Abbey and Lily, who started school here a few years’ ago now, and obviously going elsewhere to school now.

“But I love this community. This community has given me so many opportunities, and our family, so many opportunities. And I’m very grateful to my local electorate here in Cook in the Sutherland Shire.”

Mr Morrison said his legacy, if he loses, would be for others to determine.

“What I know is that each and every day I’ve approached this job with a great sense of responsibility,’’ he said.

“On every day, I’ve sought to do it with a great sense of humility, out of respect for the Australian people who I serve. And that is the same spirit in which I continue to seek to do that job, and I’ve put myself forward for again today.

“I’m the first Prime Minister in a very long time that’s been able to go through a term and face the people for a second time. What Australia needs is someone who knows how to manage money, knows how to deal with our national security interests, knows how to be able to move forward and secure that strong economy, because a strong economy means a stronger future.”

Originally published as Only way Scott Morrison can win Federal Election against Anthony Albanese