Kristina Keneally’s support collapsing in Fowler as Albo rushes in to help

Polling research has found the more locals hear about Kristina Keneally, the less likely they are to vote for the former premier who only moved to the electorate last year.

Kristina Keneally’s primary vote is collapsing in Fowler with polling revealing that locals have a deeply unfavourable view of Labor’s parachute pick candidate versus her opponent, independent candidate Dai Le.

According to research seen by this newspaper and conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns and Counsel, Ms Keneally’s primary vote has collapsed by nearly 13 points to 42 per cent.

The news comes as Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese prepares to visit the electorate Wednesday to shore up support for the former premier in what had been considered a safe Labor electorate.

In a further twist, the researchers asked participants a series of questions about Ms Keneally, the importance of living locally, her record as Premier, and their general impressions of both candidates before again asking them who they would vote for.

After pollsters raised these issues with participants, Ms Keneally’s primary vote fell by a further ten points to 32 per cent.

Independent candidate for Fowler Dai Le takes selfies with voters at pre polling at St Johns Park Anglican Church in Cabramatta. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

Overall, the poll suggests that the current two-party preferred state of play in Fowler gives Ms Keneally 45 per cent of the vote and Ms Le 38 per cent, still enough for her to potentially win.

However with a margin of error of four points, and 17 per cent of voters undecided, the researchers said they believed the seat had moved from safe Labor to “too close to call”.

Posters and pamphlets accusing Kristina Keneally of not being from the electorate of Fowler have been circulating around the area. Supplied

In 2019, retiring Labor MP Chris Hayes held the seat with a 55 per cent primary vote.

The poll also found deep ambivalence about Ms Keneally, who last year moved from her home on Scotland Island to officially became a local.

Among voters who had heard of either candidate, Ms Le had a net favourable rating of +18 per cent, with 28 per cent of participants feeling positively towards her versus 10 per cent with a negative view.

However Ms Keneally was found to have a negative favourability rating of -6 per cent, with a whopping 30 per cent of participants feeling unfavourably towards her.

Votes in Fowler have a big decision on their hands. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

While Ms Keneally has been at pains to emphasise that she has become a local fixture in the community, overall some 70 per cent of voters in the poll also said that it was either very or fairly important that their MP lived locally in Fowler.

Among supporters of Dai Le, that figure rose to 98 per cent, suggesting that the independent’s campaign to portray Ms Keneally as a blow-in is cutting through.

Support for Ms Keneally was also found to be soft, with less than two thirds of Labor supporters saying they were firmly supporting their party’s candidate.

A source familiar with the polling said that it showed that it showed that a “strong local campaign reminding voters of why they don’t like Ms Keneally is having a direct impact on her primary vote.”

The poll’s sample size was 618 voters, weighted to ABS statistics for age and gender, education, past-voting behaviour and voter language and was concluded three weeks ago.

Originally published as Kristina Keneally’s support collapsing in Fowler as Albo rushes in to help