John Howard’s heavy campaign workout

Campaign Confidential: John Howard’s ever-increasing role in the 2022 federal election. Plus: One Nation’s big printing blunder, and the marginal seat both leaders have been avoiding.

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Howard’s way

Former Prime Minister John Howard with Liberal MP for Higgins Katie Allen at a polling station in Malvern, Melbourne. Picture: Ian Currie

Blimey, John Howard’s getting a workout this campaign isn’t he? As one wag said: it feels like he’s doing longer days than Albo. While we might have expected to see Australia’s second-longest serving Prime Minister on his old turf in Bennelong, he’s been popping up all over: in Boothby, in North Sydney, in Ryan, in Brisbane, and on Tuesday alone he blitzed Kooyong, Higgins and Chisholm. He’s also been penning letters to voters in seats as disparate as Kooyong and Werriwa, imploring them to give the Coalition another go – although Campaign Confidential keeps hearing these letters are going only to the men in voter households. If it’s an oversight, it’s a weird one.

A letter sent by former PM John Howard to people in the seat of Werriwa.

The 'How to Vote' card for One Nation candidate Nick Suduk.

One Nation says vote informal

One Nation’s candidate for Hawke, Nick Suduk, has been left red-faced after issuing a How to Vote card that would have led to an informal ballot, if followed. With voters facing a choice between 11 candidates in the new seat northwest of Melbourne, Mr Suduk’s card urged supporters to give him their first preference, but managed to skip over an eighth preferenced candidate altogether, and suggested two other hopefuls should be put tenth, which is not something our voting system allows. The problem with the cards has now been rectified, after opponents had a field day with the mistake, of course. One Nation campaign headquarters declined to comment.

ScoMo gets his own bags

Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Darwin on Tuesday. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images

You’d think once you’ve made it to the Lodge, your days of staying anywhere that’s not five-star are over, but that’s not the case. Campaign Confidential’s spies noted Prime Minister Scott Morrison stayed with the travelling press pack at the Novotel Darwin on Monday night, which has a 3.5 star rating on TripAdvisor. Reportedly it’s a hotel the PM likes staying at, and just as well: he was observed doing his own bellhopping, taking his suit bag and luggage up to his room on the top floor.

Coalition’s women problem set to continue: SuperVoters

Bass MP Bridget Archer is one of the Liberal women predicted to lose her seat, according to punters on SuperVoter. Picture: Jason Edwards

SuperVoters are predicting a modest increase in the overall number of women in the House of Representatives after Saturday, but if they are right, that boost in numbers will come entirely from an influx of new female Labor and crossbench MPs, and none from the Coalition side of politics. SuperVoters are predicting women candidates will prevail in 54 of the 151 lower house seat contests, leading to a female representation of 35 per cent in the upcoming 47th parliament, which would be a slight increase on the 31 per cent we saw during the 46th parliament. If the SuperVoters have got it right, the number of Labor women in the lower house will go from 27 to 37, the crossbench will gain one more woman (Allegra Spender in Wentworth), and the Coalition will have 13 female MPs in the lower house (12 Liberal and one National), which is the same number as now. The SuperVoters are predicting Gladys Liu in Chisholm and Bridget Archer in Bass are both toast, but they reckon Jenny Ware in Hughes and Zoe McKenzie in Flinders will both get up.

A new Eden (Monaro)

Eden-Monaro MP Kristy McBain. Picture: Richard Dobson

Much has been made of the electorates Scott Morrison has not visited over the past six weeks, but it’s interesting to note neither he nor Anthony Albanese have called into the former bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro during the campaign. It used to be said that whoever won Eden-Monaro won government, but the spell was broken in 2016 when the people of the NSW south coast seat voted for Labor, while the nation voted for the Coalition. What’s weird about the lack of attention this time around is that the seat remains ultra-marginal: it’s held by Labor’s Kristy McBain on just 0.8 per cent. While Eden-Monaro has received little attention, the “new” bellwether of Robertson has received two visits from ScoMo and one from Albo. Incidentally, if Robertson does indeed go with the party that eventually forms government, by the time the next federal election rolls around (expected in 2025), Robertson will have eclipsed Eden-Monaro with a longer stretch as the bellwether. It’s currently racked up 39 years, just behind the record 41 years Eden-Monaro had that status.

It’s all about power (costs)

The rising cost of living has been front and centre in this campaign, and exclusive new data shared with Campaign Confidential reveals why. Research company Savvy surveyed more than 1000 Aussies to find out what expenses are worrying them the most, and the results are in: on average we’re now spending $137 per week on utilities alone. Voters across the country report they’re paying more for their electricity than they were a year ago, with the problem most pronounced in Tasmania and Western Australia (74 per cent and 72 per cent of respondents respectively) and lowest in South Australia (42 per cent). Gas prices are also proving a headache in voters, especially in Victoria where half the survey respondents said their bills had gone up in the past 12 months. Pollies: are you listening?

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Originally published as John Howard’s heavy campaign workout