How Maribyrnong quiet Australians have swung Federal Elections

It’s a safe Labor seat, but voters in Essendon have a remarkable history of predicting federal election outcomes. Here’s what they are thinking.

It’s a safe Labor electorate held by former opposition leader Bill Shorten for the past 15 years, but voters at one polling booth have had a remarkable run picking election victors.

The Buckley Park College booth’s 1630 voters have correctly predicted the last six elections, serving as a bellwether of the Australian public’s political sentiment.

It’s a part of the seat of Maribyrnong, a 89 square kilometre inner metropolitan electorate with more than 160,000 residents.

Buckley Park College's 1630 voters have proven to be a consistent bellwether of public sentiment since 2004.

Consistently seen as one of Labor’s safest Victorian seats, the electorate has voted for the ALP in every election since 1969 and holds a margin of 10.3 per cent.

The seat underwent a shake-up in 2021, with redistributed electoral boundaries taking in parts of Kensington, Keilor Park, Tullamarine, Gladstone Park and Melbourne Airport and losing Maidstone, Maribyrnong and parts of West Footscray to the electorate of Fraser.

Bill Shorten will again contest the seat for Labor, while no candidate has yet been selected for the Liberals.

Bill Shorten. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

When Leader spoke to residents surrounding Buckley Park College, opinions were divided on what party people would vote for – or if they would even vote.

Lindy, a resident for about seven years, said she didn’t like either party’s choice for Prime Minister.

“Honestly I was talking about this with a few friends over dinner last night and we agreed this might be the first time we cast a donkey vote,” she said.

She said she was a few years off retirement and feared what would happen to her superannuation balance as global forces impact Australia’s economy.

“People are doing it tough, I’d say my biggest priority would be for a leader to ensure financial stability,” she said.

Hector, who was out spending time at a nearby park with his partner and granddaughter, said he was a lifelong Labor voter.

“What matters most to me is respect, showing compassion to people,” he said.

The local resident for a quarter of a century said it was “very easy” to criticise the Morrison Government but acknowledged they had “a difficult run over the past few years”.

Hector, a Essendon resident of 24 years, said he looked for respect and compassion in a political candidate.

Small business owner Cassie McKenzie shared his view, saying she thought some criticism dealt out at the current government was “unfair”.

“It’s been a difficult time for them to lead us through,” she said.

But the Liberal voter said her biggest concern heading into the election season was the pressures felt by the local economy.

“Everyone’s experiencing money pressures at the moment,” she said. “We‘re out of Covid and businesses are supposed to be recovering but I’m not seeing it.”

Swing voter Rosalee Toy, a resident of 25 years, said her vote would be won if she saw a “firm” commitment on climate change.

“I don’t like to stick myself firmly in one camp or another, my vote is influenced by what‘s going on at the time,” she said.

Originally published as How Maribyrnong quiet Australians have swung Federal Elections