A hung parliament is looking more and more likely. Here is how it could weaken Australia

With multiple polls pointing to a razor tight election result on Saturday, the prospect of a hung parliament remains very real — but senior ministers are warning it could weaken Australia.

A hung parliament will cripple government decision making and weaken the country, a past Prime Minister and senior ministers from the major parties have warned in a stark election-eve message.

The threat of the Greens or other independents holding the balance of power and potentially forcing a minority government into policy deals in return for support, was spelt out by political luminaries Tony Abbott, Joel Fitzgibbon and Arthur Sinodinos, who said the result would ravage the economy.

Former Prime Minister Mr Abbott said a “minority Labor government would be an even worse result than a majority one” as it would be “even more dependent on the Greens”.

“The only good result would be a Coalition government, preferably with a majority because that would end the politics of climate and identity which is ravaging our economy and weakening our society,” he said.

Mr Fitzgibbon, a former minister in the Rudd Government, implored voters to put the Greens last to prevent the minor party dragging Labor to the extreme left.

“Peter Dutton can’t win the election and can no longer hope for more seats than Labor,” he said.

“Even non-Labor supporters yet to vote must now be thinking about doing what they can to help Labor secure a majority.”

Mr Fitzgibbon said the Greens would “again be trouble enough in the Senate” let alone the lower house.

“Gifting them any power in the House of Representatives will be a huge blow to our economy,” he said.

The warning comes as Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton made their final pitch to voters with a blitz of must-win seats on the last full day of campaigning, the latest published polls show Australians are poised to elect a minority government.

Mr Albanese, who has continually been pressed to rule out deals with the Greens throughout the election campaign, on Friday said a majority government would bring “certainty” to voters. Picture: Jason Edwards / NewsWire

The Prime Minister and Opposition leader will both begin polling day in Melbourne, having spent the final full day of campaigning wooing voters in Queensland and Tasmania, and South Australia and Western Australia respectively.

But with about a third of Australians indicating they will not be voting for either major party, former Labor and Liberal heavyweights have warned danger looms if the next prime minister is forced to negotiate with an unwieldy crossbench.

A mix of Greens, inner-city Teal and other independents, including long serving MPs like Bob Katter and Andrew Wilkie, would have the balance of power if neither side is able to win 76 seats and govern in their own right.

Former Abbott and Turnbull government minister Mr Sinodinos said a hung parliament created “greater uncertainty around decision making”.

“Australia faces an international environment that is more volatile than it has been for a long time,” the former Australian ambassador to the United States said.

Mr Albanese, who has continually been pressed to rule out deals with the Greens throughout the election campaign, on Friday said a majority government would bring “certainty” to voters.

“I’m working my guts out to ensure there’s a majority government,” he said, refusing to reveal how he would handle the crossbench if Labor did not secure enough seats.

The PM’s three-state blitz on Friday included meeting locals at a cafe in the northern Tasmanian town of Devonport, in the seat of Braddon, where he was heckled by Liberal volunteers as the TV cameras rolled.

“Where‘s (the) $450 million (spent) on the Voice,” a Liberal yelled.

The Greens have aggressively marketed themselves as the powerbrokers in a minority Labor government, with leader Adam Bandt listing dental in Medicare, no new coal and gas and scrapping negative gearing as among his top demands.

Mr Bandt said he expected Mr Albanese to pick up the phone if Labor didn’t win a majority.

“Just as the Prime Minister has negotiated with us during the course of this parliament, I expect that there will be discussions in the next one as well,” he said.

University of Sydney political Professor Rodney Smith said a large crossbench would present multiple avenues for a minority Labor government to pass legislation through, but at any given moment an independent might choose to make negotiations difficult.

“There is a danger if there’s controversial legislation it may get slowed down,” he said

“It’ll be a bit slower on some pieces of legislation, there’ll be some grandstanding by the independents and Greens, and probably stand offs.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Labor candidate for Dickson, Ali France, and volunteers at her office in Strathpine, Queensland. Picture: Tara Croser.

Meanwhile after struggling to cut through with last-minute policies announced during the campaign, speculation is mounting about how many seats Mr Dutton would have to secure to maintain the Liberal leadership.

Questions are already being put to senior Coalition frontbenchers about who might replace Mr Dutton, with finance spokeswoman Jane Hume on Friday refusing to be drawn, saying “you don’t read the entrails until you’ve gutted the chicken”.

Asked if he would remain party leader if he lost, Mr Dutton said his objective was winning.

“We’re not in this for anything other than doing the best for our country, and the best outcome for our country,” he said.

The Coalition is confident it will claw back seats in Victoria, with the Melbourne seat of Aston considered most likely to return to the Liberals, while McEwen and Chisholm are also a possibility.

Labor insiders believe the party will come out on top with preferences in the seat of Brisbane, and are also hopeful of poaching neighbouring Griffith from the Greens.

In NSW the Liberals are in danger in Bradfield, but hopeful of picking up Gilmore on the south coast, Bennelong in Sydney and Paterson in the Hunter Region.

In Tasmania both sides say the three northern seats of Braddon, Bass and Lyons are too close to call, but some strategists believe the seats will stay as they are with two held by the Liberals and one by Labor.

In Western Australia the Liberals are looking to pick up the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, as well as taking Tangney back from Labor.

What’s a hung parliament?

With 150 seats in the House of Representatives (that’s where your local federal MP sits), either major party needs to win at least 76 to form a government in their own right.

That means the ruling party of the day can pass the majority of its legislation and act as a functioning government.

But if neither side hits 76 seats, it doesn’t mean another election has to be called.

A hung parliament would cripple and weaken Australia, a former Prime Minister and senior Ministers from both major parties have warned, in a stern election-eve message. Picture: Adam Head / NewsWire

Instead, negotiations will take place with other elected MPs from outside of both major parties to garner their support to form a government.

If they can reach an agreement with enough minor players to form government, that is known as minority government.

What happened last time there was a hung parliament?

Following the 2010 election, Labor and the Coalition were locked at 72 seats each – instantly becoming a hung parliament, the first time in 70 years that’d happened in Australia.

The fate of the country’s governance was thrust into the hands of six independent or minor party MPs who had been elected as well.

It came down to the wire, with it only decided that Labor would form government when the last of those independents – Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor – declared they’d support Julia Gillard as Prime Minister to form government.

It took 17 days back then for that minority government to be formed.

What would a hung parliament look like now?

The potential of a hung parliament is looming large, with multiple polls suggesting a tight win for Labor which could result in them falling short of the magic 76 seats.

Increasing the likelihood is the ballooning vote for smaller parties and independents – in 2022, more than 30 per cent of voters backed those options, rather than Labor or the Coalition.

Despite Anthony Albanese repeatedly ruling out doing a deal with the Greens if he doesn’t have the numbers to form government, Labor may have to look to them to help them form government – despite everything the Prime Minister has said.

Labor and the Coalition have both declared at different times their belief they will win a majority government.

But if they don’t, the independents and minor parties will be rubbing their hands together with glee.

Minor players who do a deal to support the government can expect – and will demand – favours in return.

It’s frustrating for the government of the day, who can be forced into negotiating and changing legislation to keep their minor supporters happy.

For example, in 2010 the Greens – whose sole lower house MP Adam Bandt was a crucial supporter of Labor’s in the hung parliament – pressured the government to add childhood dental care to Medicare.

Again increasing the likelihood is how the crossbench has ballooned in recent years – there were six crossbenchers in 2010, compared to 19 now.

Originally published as A hung parliament is looking more and more likely. Here is how it could weaken Australia