Election 2022: What pundits, Gold Coast voters think
Political pundits have warned there is massive sentiment against the two main parties on the Gold Coast, leaving the potential for shock results.
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POLITICAL experts say preference flows will be key if Gold Coast MPs are not to see their margins slashed in Saturday’s federal election.
University of Queensland’s Dr Glenn Kefford said there was an “anti-major party sentiment” among voters which would likely see a strong vote for minor parties on the Coast.
“I think that’s going to depress the LNP primary,” Dr Kefford said. “The question is where does it go? Do they give Labor a chance or does it go to the minor parties and flow back? And in what proportion?”
A YouGov poll for the Australian predicted McPherson MP and Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews would have her margin slashed from 12 per cent to six.
Dr Kefford said such an outcome would not be a shock to political observers in Queensland.
“I think it would be a shock nationally. For people more in touch with the broader changes in Queensland politics it might be a surprise but not a huge shock,” he said.
“We’ve seen at state elections that the traditional strongholds of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast for the LNP have been eaten into a little bit in recent electoral cycles,” he said.
Sky News chief election analyst Tom Connell said any major slip in their vote would set off alarm bells in the LNP.
“I think it would be a definite warning signal,” he said. “You’re seeing a lot of potential for a lot of electoral boundaries to be redrawn across the place.
“There’s going to be a really strong look across the country at whether something is changing fundamentally.”
Mr Connell, who will analyse data live on Sky News from 5pm as results roll in on Saturday, said McPherson becoming a marginal seat would create major headaches for the party.
“The Gold Coast, if that is not a reliable area, if that has to be fought next time for the LNP, well that’s resources, that’s worrying about the seat itself,” he said.
“They would ask what’s changing about it? Is it is a one-off protest vote for the United Australia Party that doesn’t come back to the LNP, were voters frustrated about closed borders, because that’s obviously a big issue for the Gold Coast?
“The problem is sometimes once you turn voters off, you don’t turn them off for one election, they start to look around and they can park their vote elsewhere.”
Voters spoken to by the Bulletin at a pre-poll centre in Pimpama this week said they were unhappy with both the LNP and Labor.
Former Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey said she had also encountered similar sentiment among voters on the southern Gold Coast.
“People are just shaking their heads, throwing their hands in the air and saying ‘it’s a joke’,” Ms Stuckey said.
“They’re not impressed with either of the majors.
“I don’t think a lot of the people realise though that they’re still going to have to preference.
“They should be thinking that through, about which of the majors that they like less, about where they put them.”
Ms Stuckey said she was “really shocked” by Ms Andrews’ statement calling for federal funding for the light rail extension through Palm Beach to be blocked, saying it was a “blatant vote grab” that indicated she was under pressure.
“I’m really surprised at her outburst and all I can say is she must be scared that she’s going to lose some of her margin and therefore probably have the smallest margin out of her colleagues.”
‘BORING, TEDIOUS, CHILDISH’: VOTERS’ SAVAGE ELECTION VERDICT
BOTH the LNP and Labor are facing a backlash in the Gold Coast’s most hotly contested seat among voters fed up with both main parties.
The Bulletin spoke to voters from the Forde electorate as they arrived to cast early ballots at the Pimpama Community Centre Sports Hub on Thursday.
Forde, which encompasses Logan and northern Gold Coast suburbs west of the M1 including Ormeau, Upper Coomera and parts of Pimpama, is held by the LNP’s Bert van Manen on an 8.6 per cent margin.
However it came close to changing hands in 2016, when Mr Van Manen’s margin was just 0.6 per cent – making it a must-watch seat in Saturday’s Federal election.
Polling suggests Mr Van Manen will retain the seat, but sentiment on the ground suggests the outcome is highly uncertain.
Volunteers handing out how to vote cards for the major parties told the Bulletin they believed the race would come down to preferences, with many people indicating they would vote for minor parties first.
This was in line with what the Bulletin found when we spoke to voters in early April, and it was borne out again on Thursday when we spoke to people on their way into the early voting centre.
TONY BEAVER
I’m an ex builder.
I was always taught to build a good strong foundation.
Unfortunately they (the main parties) have been using foundations with no cement.
I was a Labor supporter in the past, but I realised both parties are very similar.
Maybe a hung parliament is not a bad idea. Keep them honest.
I certainly won’t be voting for the major parties this time.
NATALIE OLIVIER, UPPER COOMERA
I think I want it (the election campaign) over. It’s boring, tedious and childish.
We have real life issues – inflation, mandates.
I’ll be marking the main parties last and second last. ScoMo definitely last.
In the past I was mainly centre right, I went with ScoMo. But I feel we’ve been let down. There’s real life stuff going on. I’ve got adult children and I’m worried about them.
MARYANN WARREN, UPPER COOMERA
Roads and traffic are the biggest issue where we live.
You have no idea what it’s like. We have five schools in a small area – you don’t move between 7am and 9am and 2pm to five.
It takes so long just to cross over the motorway just to get to the side Dreamworld is at.
It’s so bad we’re thinking of selling up and leaving the Gold Coast.
Both of the main parties are hopeless. I previously went Labor. This time, I don’t think so. Neither are doing anything.
MARGARET O’BRYAN, ORMEAU HILLS
I’m so over politicians.
Transport is a definite issue, and absolutely the cost of living.
Rent has gone up so much. An elderly person or someone with several kids has no hope.
RAJPAL SINGH, ORMEAU
I drive a taxi. This time people are talking about change.
The main issue is drugs, it needs to be stopped.
JARED WILLIAMS, WILLOW VALE
It’s a bit difficult to know who to vote for. They’re both so similar.
There’s a lack of trust in both parties, which is disappointing.
I’m a small business person. My family has a Labor background. But I’ve lost a bit of faith.
Albanese seems a great guy but he’s a bit of an accidental tourist. He’s fallen into top spot.
I’m a big supporter of Tanya Plibersek. I think she’s a great politician. But we haven’t seen her in the campaign. Maybe she’d take the shine off him (Albanese).
I just don’t see a great deal of difference between the main parties. There’s a lot less difference at a federal level.
MATT GILLARD, ORMEAU
Mr Gillard said the campaign had been “like every campaign”.
He said “congestion, infrastructure and overpopulation” were the major issues in the northern Gold Coast.
Mr Gillard said he “usually goes for minor parties”. He said he wasn’t really fussed whether the Liberals or Labor won the election, but would “prefer a change”.
COLOURFUL ELECTION STUNT BESIDE M1
MINOR-party candidates for the seat of McPherson insist the winds of change are blowing through the electorate. But gusts of another kind brought a premature end to an election stunt in Robina on Tuesday.
Josh Berrigan from the United Australia Party, Andy Cullen from the Australian Values Party, Glenn Pyne from the Liberal Democrats and Kevin Hargraves from One Nation jointly launched a multi-coloured hot air balloon, trying to catch the attention of passing M1 motorists.
However the balloon, which carried a banner advising locals to ‘vote the majors last’, became another victim of the inclement weather that has plagued the Gold Coast, with winds forcing it back to ground shortly before nine o’clock.
Mr Berrigan has told the Bulletin he believes an election shock is on the cards and incumbent MP Karen Andrews can be unseated. By Saturday evening voters will know whether those claims have any merit, or are more political hot air.
BOMBSHELL CLAIM ABOUT GOLD COAST SEAT
AN election candidate has made the stunning claim an LNP “insider” has told her the ultra-safe Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff is “in play” in Saturday’s federal election.
But incumbent MP Angie Bell has dismissed it as a “desperate plea for attention”.
Liberal Democrat candidate Diane Demetre said an LNP “insider” reached out to tell her the race for the seat, held by Ms Bell on a 15.3 per cent margin, was too close to call.
“I was contacted by somebody within the party and their direct words were: ‘Moncrieff is in play’,” Ms Demetre said.
“I’m told what was once a David and Goliath contest is now neck-and-neck.”
Ms Demetre said she had encountered many disillusioned Liberal voters during the campaign who she believed would switch their vote.
“There are so many voters out there who are disenfranchised,” she said.
“They’ve been Liberal voters all their life and the last two years has shown them that in fact the Liberal party doesn’t have their best interests at heart.”
Ms Demetre’s claim is not supported by a YouGov poll published by News Corp last week showing only a small swing away from the LNP in Moncrieff. It predicts Ms Bell would retain the seat with a 14 per cent margin after preferences ahead of Labor’s Glen Palmer.
Ms Bell said she had not had any local polling done and was “overwhelmed by the positive response from voters” while campaigning.
“PR tactics by other candidates like (Ms Demetre) have been seen across the country in recent days in a desperate plea for attention,” Ms Bell said.
“I am not focused on the polls and have not had any internal polling conducted on a local level, so that alone busts the myth of the Lib Dems having an ‘LNP insider’.
“If their candidate wishes to focus on polls rather than the community she is seeking to represent, that is her choice.”
In 2019, Ms Bell was elected on the first count, however Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said that would not happen on this occasion.
“Even Angie Bell is going to be pushed to preferences this time,” Dr Williams said. “There will be a swing in Moncrieff as well.
“She was the only one who wasn’t pushed to preferences last time, she will be this time.”
The YouGov poll showed a bigger swing against Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews in McPherson, where candidates from smaller right-wing parties are also hoping to make gains.
United Australia Party candidate Joshua Berrigan said the Andrews campaign was “worried” and a historic upset could be on the cards.
“I’m telling you right now, we’re going to win,” he said.
“Our campaigning, when we’re alongside (Labor candidate) Carl Ungerer, when we’re alongside Karen Andrews at the PBC markets on a Saturday morning, it’d be ten to one people who stop and chat with us to the one that stops and chats to Liberal or Labor.
“... McPherson wants to vote for a conservative minor party. It’s not just hopeful it is absolutely possible and we will win.”
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Originally published as Election 2022: What pundits, Gold Coast voters think
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