The numbers behind South Barwon’s mid-season turnaround after a six-goal loss to Leopold in June
South Barwon will face Leopold in a GFNL grand final, three months after the Lions upstaged their rivals in gale-force conditions. See the key numbers behind the Swans’ 9-0 streak ever since.
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South Barwon may have flipped its season on its head following a 36-point loss to Leopold on a cold, windy afternoon in June.
But new Swans coach Mark Neeld believes little has changed either or off the field for his team as they won the next nine games in a row and give themselves a chance to end a 10-year premiership drought.
“Over the back half of the season, we haven’t really changed our focus points from what they were at the start of the year,” Neeld said.
“It’s just a group spending more time together, practising and playing and you become a bit more familiar with each other.”
While some attribute Carlton’s mid-season revival to a fireside heart-to-heart at Ed Curnow’s property, Neeld can’t link the red, white and blue renaissance to one isolated thing.
“That’s why I’ve found this season fascinating, there hasn’t been a one off,” he said.
From that day in Round 11 at McDonald Reserve, South Barwon has taken the scalps of all the finals contenders in St Mary’s and Colac (both twice), St Joseph’s and Newtown & Chilwell.
From a statistics point of view, lot of things have stayed the same over the past nine games – compared to the Swans’ middling 6-5 first half of the year – including average scores for and against, overall tackle count and contested marks.
Andrew Boseley and captain Matt Caldow have remained consistent for inside 50 grabs, ranked third and fourth for the season, while the latter led the league for contested marks.
The Swans have only been marginally more accurate in front of goal over the past nine games, too.
Neeld said the 36-point loss clearly highlighted areas that needed to improve.
“There were so many. Leopold led from start to finish that day and certainly deserved the win,” Neeld said.
However, he also stressed it was a new-look team, after the departure of a few key players including ruck Luke Davis to Barwon Heads: “We haven’t been together very long.”
Neeld said he told Lions coach Garry Hocking after the game his team was the best they had faced to that point.
“They were terrific on that day, they beat us in all areas of the contest,” he said.
“It was a long time ago though ... and certain aspects got better.”
In some areas, that is definitely the case.
Since that Round 11 loss at home, the Swans have dramatically improved their disposal efficiency by six percentage points – from 68 to almost 75 per cent – plus healthy increases in intercept marks and inside 50s — their highest season tally of 56 coming in a qualifying final against Colac.
The Swans have not sunk below 70 per cent efficiency when disposing of the ball over the past nine games after doing it five consecutive times for the season up to Round 11.
While still conceding an average of 62 points a game over their unbeaten run – the same as their 6-5 start to the season – it also appears the Swans have improved their defence in other departments.
Their match count for the “effort spoil” statistic flipped from a 3-8 season scoreline in favour of the opposition to Round 11, to 7-2 over the past nine games.
The Swans have also bridged the gap with tackle count differentials in games, after several lopsided efforts (17-45, 8-31 and 10-44) in consecutive matches early in the season against St Joseph’s, Newtown & Chilwell and North Shore respectively — the first two being losses.
None of these numbers particularly interest Neeld, however, who puts the emphasis of a new team slowly beginning to gel.
“I’m not massive into the stats,” he said.
“For me … it’s an outcome.
“You cannot stand in front of a group and say be better, kick it better, kick it straighter.
“To change a skill, it takes a lot of time.”
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Originally published as The numbers behind South Barwon’s mid-season turnaround after a six-goal loss to Leopold in June
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