Fierce contest: inside the battle for Corangamite
As the race for one of Australia’s most marginal seats enters the final leg, new polling has revealed one popular candidate is slipping in the popularity rankings. Here’s why.
Geelong
Don't miss out on the headlines from Geelong. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Polling prepared for the Labor Party in Corangamite shows the net “favourability rating” of Liberal candidate Stephanie Asher has dropped significantly since November.
A YouGov poll of 400 people completed in November last year found Ms Asher had a “relatively good” net favourability rating for a new candidate at plus 12 per cent which included a favourable rating of 31 per cent and an unfavourable rating of 19 per cent.
But polling completed by Community Engagement Survey of about 850 people between April 28 and May 1 following Ms Asher’s ANZAC Day “mistake” showed her net favourable rating was at -0.8 per cent which include a favourable rating of 28.4 per cent and an unfavourable rating of 29.2 per cent.
Polling completed by Community Engagement Survey of about 900 people between on May 13 and 14 showed Ms Asher’s net favourable rating was -3.6 per cent including a unfavourable rating of 31.7 per cent and an favourable rating of 28.1 per cent.
Polling conducted at the weekend, and prepared for Labor by Community Engagement Survey, showed the Liberal Party’s primary vote in Corangamite dropped from 42.33 per cent to 35 per cent while the Labor’s primary in Corangamite increased from 35.47 per cent to 37 per cent.
Meanwhile a YouGov poll last week predicted Corangamite voters were set for a cliffhanger at the federal election with comprehensive polling revealing the Liberals have an edge but the seat is too close to call.
Exclusive YouGov polling found Corangamite’s two-party-preferred vote was 50-50.
Ms Asher led Labor incumbent Libby Coker by seven per cent on first preference, the polling showed.
The polling prepared for the Geelong Advertiser found the first-preference vote in Corangamite gave 36 per cent to Labor, 43 to Liberals, 10 to Greens, three to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON), four to United Australia Party (UAP) and four to other parties.
The YouGov poll, completed between April 14 and May 7, drew insights from surveys with about 19,000 voters across all federal parliament’s 151 lower house seats, and demographic data in each seat.
PM hopeful skips Corangamite on campaign trail
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has failed to front up in Corangamite this election campaign, despite the electorate’s marginal status.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has visited the Geelong region four times since December – including twice during the campaign and once just before the federal election was called.
Mr Albanese last visited Geelong in November.
Corangamite Liberal candidate Stephanie Asher was present at a pre-polling station in Clifton Springs where rival MP Libby Coker was joined by high-profile senator Penny Wong on Monday.
When asked about Mr Albanese’s absence in the electorate Ms Wong told the Geelong Advertiser there was “a lot of ground to cover”.
She said senior Labor MPs went across the country, and deputy Labor leader and Corio MP Richard Marles had spent significant amounts of time in Corangamite.
“We know how important this seat is,” Ms Wong, who is Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, said.
Asked if Mr Albanese was expected to visit, she said: “We’ll see over the next few days.”
YouGov polling released last week found Corangamite’s two-party-preferred vote was 50-50.
It showed Ms Asher led Ms Coker by 7 per cent on first preference.
Deakin University senior lecturer in politics Dr Geoff Robinson said it was “interesting” Mr Albanese had not visited the area during the campaign, but did not think it would have much of an impact on Corangamite’s election result.
“I don’t think it’s a mistake in terms of priorities,” he said.
Dr Robinson said the Liberal party was paying more attention to the electorate because they wanted to the regain the seat they lost in 2019, despite a win being “very much an outside chance”.
“The Liberal party is giving it some attention because it is a classic marginal seat, but it does (now) tilt a bit on the Labor side.”
Mr Albanese was forced to isolate for a week after contracting Covid earlier in the campaign.
During the 2019 election campaign when Labor was pushing to get Ms Coker elected, then-Opposition leader Bill Shorten visited Geelong, with other senior Labor MPs including Mr Albanese and Ms Wong also coming to town.
Dr Robinson said it was “probably unlikely” Mr Albanese would visit the region in the campaign’s final days.
Liberal Senator for Victoria Sarah Henderson, who was the member for Corangamite before Ms Coker, said while the Prime Minister had visited our area twice during the campaign, Mr Albanese could not be bothered to come once.
“Corangamite deserves better than a party that takes them for granted and thinks they’re not worth their time,” Senator Henderson said.
Ms Wong said Corangamite always presented a “tough fight”, and Ms Coker was a great local MP.
A Labor spokesman said the party’s commitment to the seat of Corangamite was indisputable.
“The leader’s travel plans are not released in advance,” they said.
Inside the battle for Corangamite
If you have not noticed, there is a federal election next week.
The starter’s gun fired on pre-poll voting this week and 14,600 people in the region have cast their vote.
As the campaign heads to a climax, expect a flurry of spending.
On Saturday, it is $200m from the Coalition for the Barwon Heads Rd.
This week, Liberal candidate for Corangamite Stephanie Asher pledged $4.45m for sports clubs at Barwon Heads and Leopold.
The Liberals also committed $6.2m to bring the youth mental health service headspace to Bannockburn and upgrade the Corio headspace.
Labor has pledged $4.8m for headspace at Armstrong Creek. This week, it also pledged $10.34m to expand the Sport for All program to connect people with disabilities to sport.
The glaring omission from Labor’s Corangamite campaign so far is the presence of leader Anthony Albanese.
After Mr Albanese’s two trips to Melbourne in recent weeks shunned Geelong, voters are right to ask, “Hey Albo, where the bloody hell are ya?”.
Mr Albanese’s last visit to Geelong was in November where he announced Labor would pledge $125m to duplicate Barwon Heads Rd between Marshall and Connewarre.
In contrast Prime Minister Scott Morrison has visited the Geelong region four times since December.
On the ground, Labor supporters say Albo’s no-show is a sign of the strength of Corangamite MP Libby Coker’s campaign.
Albo seems to be hitting his straps after clinching victory in the third leaders’ debate.
But he will be faced with Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a self-described “bulldozer”, who will likely go to another level of campaigning next week. It seems Corangamite is in for a cliffhanger.
A comprehensive YouGov poll this week found the Liberals have an edge but Corangamite is too close to call.
According to YouGov, Corangamite’s two-party preferred vote was 50-50 while the Liberals were leading Labor by 7 per cent on first preferences in the seat.
The polling, completed between April 14 and May 7, drew insights from surveys with about 19,000 voters across all 151 lower-house seats, and demographic data in Corangamite.
The Addy’s exit poll of 100 people at Torquay on Monday found 50 voted Labor, 39 Liberal and 11 for minor parties.
If Corangamite is not decided on election night, it is likely the 21,096 postal votes that have gone out could have a say in the final outcome.
Originally published as Fierce contest: inside the battle for Corangamite
High profile Geelong sporting centre to close
A basketball training hub part-owned by an Olympic medallist is closing its doors, with management citing rising costs as the key factor.
‘My downfall’: Smith’s message to trade critics, reasons behind move
Bailey Smith has opened up on why he chose Geelong and thanked his former club. But he also had a pointed message for his detractors. Plus, he speaks for the first time as a Cat.