Corangamite ‘key seat’ in election battle, big swing predicted

New research predicts a significant swing against Libby Coker in Corangamite, with backlash against Richard Marles also expected as a hung parliament looms.

A new poll reports a swing of more than 5 per cent against sitting Corangamite MP Libby Coker. Picture: Alan Barber

New research finds Libby Coker faces a swing against her well above the national average, but she remains favourite to retain the key battleground of Corangamite at the upcoming federal election.

Richard Marles is also facing a significant swing against him in Corio, but the deputy prime minister still looks set to comfortably retain the seat he has held since 2007.

Nationally, the YouGov MRP model, which combines survey data with electorate-level information, predicted victory for the Coalition in 73 of 150 seats – a result that would leave Opposition leader Peter Dutton best placed to form government.

In Corangamite, YouGov predicts a swing against Ms Coker of 5.2 per cent, which would see her retain the seat over Liberal candidate Darcy Dunstan by 2.4 per cent.

“We are currently projecting a hung parliament and Corangamite is a key seat for the Coalition to win the achieve a working majority,” YouGov’s Paul Smith said.

The YouGov result is more favourable for Labor than an Accent Research report in December that found the seat of a knife’s edge at 51-49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Liberal candidate for Corangamite Darcy Dunstan (right) with Opposition leader Peter Dutton during a visit to Zeally Bay Sourdough in Torquay last year. Picture: Alison Wynd.

Ms Coker, who is seeking a third term, currently holds Corangamite by 7.6 per cent.

Mr Dunstan, her key opponent, is a former SAS soldier who has not stood for parliament previously.

YouGov projected a four-point drop in Ms Coker’s primary vote from the 2022 election to 34.2 per cent, while the Liberal vote would rise 1.6 points to 35.7 per cent.

One Nation came in with a surprisingly high vote of 7.5 per cent, despite not yet announcing a candidate.

In Corio, an almost six per cent swing again Mr Marles was predicted, an outcome that would see the long-term MP’s margin cut to 6.9 per cent.

The projected swing against Richard Marles in Corio is no laughing matter. Well, at least for him, it isn’t. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman.

The Liberal Party, which received a quarter of the primary vote in 2022, has yet to name its Corio candidate.

YouGov projected a national swing against Labor of 3.2 per cent.

Cost of living looms as the key issue across the country, with Labor hoping an interest-rate cut could soon ease pressure on household budgets.

Speaking at Armstrong Creek Town Centre, where Ms Coker’s electorate office is located, Doug Baker said “grocery, gas, and electricity (prices] are out of control”.

Another sore point among voters was traffic congestion and road maintenance.

“My car was actually airborne the other day, I could not believe it,” Melissa Buchanan said.

“I travel every day … and it’s terrible.

“If somebody said ‘I’ll fix the roads’, I wouldn’t care about anything else, I’d vote for them.”

Speaking in parliament in November, Ms Coker said “it’s up to council and developers to work together and to be strategic when planning the building, maintenance and access to roadways”.

“As the federal member, I acknowledge I’m not in charge of local roads in the Armstrong Creek area, but I have a clear role to play in advocating to the City of Greater Geelong to get better outcomes for my communities,” she said.

The election must be held by May 17, but April 12 looms as the preferred option because Labor would avoid having to deliver another budget.

Originally published as Corangamite ‘key seat’ in election battle, big swing predicted