Cunningham: Darwin may just be about to come out of the doldrums

The fact there still appears to be some doubt about the outcome of today’s election suggests the scars inflicted by the CLP’s last, brief, period in power might still be healing, writes Matt Cunningham.

The Cavenagh St Shade Structure as of June 17, 2021 Picture: Glenn Campbell

If you’ve taken a drive down Cavenagh St lately, you might have noticed an unusual sight. The much-maligned vines are just starting to creep over the infamous shadeless shade structure.

This expensive piece of infrastructure has been something of a metaphor for the Gunner/Fyles/Lawler Labor governments.

The previous incarnation of ALP rule delivered what seemed like boundless economic development.

The Darwin LNG plant, the Darwin Waterfront and then Inpex were all delivered under Clare Martin and Paul Henderson.

But in the past eight years, getting anything off the ground – even a creeping vine – has proved almost impossible.

The Project Sea Dragon prawn farm fell over, Santos’s Barossa offshore gas project was tied up in knots for years by the dubious claims of environmental activists, the owners of the giant proposed solar farm Sun Cable fell out over the future direction of that project, development of the Beetaloo Basin was delayed by a moratorium on onshore gas development, the Tiger Brennan Drive overpass is more than $100 million over budget and still unfinished, the Aboriginal art gallery planned for Alice Springs remains unbuilt and the plan to build amphibious aircraft in Darwin still looks like a triumph of hope over reality.

The government’s biggest achievement of the past eight years is probably the Darwin Laksa Festival.

Chief Minister Eva Lawler voting in the 2024 Northern Territory general election. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin.

That says more about the government than the festival.

The urgency to get anything done only seemed to arrive eight months ago, when Eva Lawler took over a ship that seemed on a one-way collision course with a massive electoral iceberg.

Under these circumstances – and amid community alarm about rising rates of crime – the Country Liberal Party should be a certainty to win today’s Northern Territory election.

The fact there still appears to be some doubt about that outcome suggests the scars inflicted by the CLP’s last, brief, period in power might still be healing.

That’s why today’s election will effectively be a referendum on the CLP.

Even voters who are dismayed by Labor’s performance since 2016 will have to ask themselves: “Do we trust the CLP to be a stable and effective government?” It would be an exaggeration to say everything is nice and rosy behind the scenes on the CLP side, but Lia Finocchiaro has managed to hold on to the leadership for an entire term.

The only other person to do that this century was Terry Mills between 2008 and 2012, before he won 16 seats at the 2012 election.

Meanwhile, Labor has churned through three leaders in the past two years.

If it loses today, it might regret its failure to orchestrate a smooth transition when Michael Gunner resigned in May 2022.

One thing is certain about today’s poll.

This is a good election to win.

Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro has cast an early ballot in the 2024 NT general election.

For just like the vines that are starting to creep over the top of the Cavenagh St shade structure, the Northern Territory’s economic fortunes look like they might be about to improve.

Santos will begin producing gas from Barossa next year.

Empire Energy is expecting to produce its first gas from the Beetaloo Basin in 2025, and Tamboran Resources soon after that.

Mike Cannon-Brookes has won the battle for Sun Cable and the project was granted environmental approval from the Federal Government just this week.

Meanwhile Defence investment continues to ramp up.

Last week, US Republican congressman Michael McCaul said Australia’s Top End would become “the central base of operations” for America’s military to deter Chinese aggression. We should expect more US Marines in the Top End and more infrastructure to accompany them.

A slowdown in the rest of the country might also work in our favour.

The Territory’s economic cycles have often run counter to the rest of Australia.

When the post GFC-bust hit the rest of our country, Darwin experienced its biggest ever boom.

If jobs are being cut on the east coast as we head into a possible recession, there’s a good chance people will head north to find work, particularly if our next government can get on top of crime.

Darwin has been in the doldrums for a decade, but there’s an optimistic view we might be about to wake up.

If the CLP doesn’t win this unlosable election, it will have much to regret.

And if Labor loses, it might wonder why it didn’t do more to foster economic growth at a time when it was desperately needed.