Election results of bush seats Namatjira and Gwoja seem clear-cut: Political expert
THE election results for bush seats ‘Namatjira and Gwoja seem clear-cut but the urban seats of Araluen and Braitling were too close to call, according to a political expert
Alice Springs
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THE election results for bush seats Namatjira and Gwoja seem clear-cut but the urban seats of Araluen and Braitling were too close to call, according to Alice Springs based Charles Darwin University academic professor Rolf Gerritsen.
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Prof Gerritsen said the Territory Alliance vote was “collapsing across the Territory” and the CLP (candidate Bill Yan) would win the hybrid seat of urban and bush voters known as Namatjira.
He said Labor would easily take out the “purely Aboriginal” seat of Gwoja.
Prof Gerritson said he expected Labor MP Chansey Paech to “easily win” the seat of Gwoja but Namatjira was “more complex”.
“In Alice the CLP is much more confident of winning these seats than they were two months ago,” he said.
“Historically from self-government until 2012, Aboriginal people voted faithfully for the Labor Party.
“In 2012, they reversed their historical voting patterns and actually voted CLP.
“In 2016, they returned (to voting Labor) because the CLP didn’t deliver on its promises.
But Prof Gerritson said remote polling numbers were very low this time around, which was a concern for Labor.
“Aboriginal people tend to vote Labor, but if they’re voting they’re doing it with no enthusiasm.”
Prof Gerritson said this pattern was revealed in the mobile polling voting rates where it appeared less than 50 per cent had participated so far this election.
“If the Aboriginal vote is down below 50 per cent of potential voters, that means Labor can’t win that seat (of Namatjira),” he said.
Prof Gerritson said the town seats of Araluen and Braitling were “too hard to predict”.
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