Cairns weather: Babinda cops 346mm of rain in 48 hours as tropical low likely to strengthen
Long-range weather modelling is predicting the convergence of two developing low pressure systems over the Gulf of Carpentaria, as the national forecaster comments on a potential superstorm forming. ROLLING WEATHER UPDATES
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Long-range weather modelling is predicting the convergence of two developing low pressure systems over the Gulf of Carpentaria, but the national forecaster has dismissed suggestion of a super storm forming.
By Thursday morning tropical low 13U is expected to be about 150km off the coast of Cairns and is predicted to head back out to sea.
But on Friday the system is expected to head back onshore and is a 25 per cent chance of reaching cyclone strength at the weekend.
At the same time on Sunday night, tropical low 12U, forming between Weipa and Kowanyama, is also 25 per cent of developing into a cyclone.
The power and direction of the 13U system is dependent upon the other systems including the 16U system currently hovering in Coral Sea skies, north of New Caledonia.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology this system is the greatest risk of becoming a cyclone, increasing to 30 per cent from Monday morning.
If the 16U system develops it is likely to track generally southward through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea from nextweek.
Severe Weather Update: Tropical low and heavy rainfall impacting the North Tropical Queensland Coast.
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) January 29, 2025
Video current: 12:00pm AEST 29 January 2025.
Latest forecasts and warnings: https://t.co/4W35o8iFmh or the BOM Weather app. pic.twitter.com/4vmHk19rYK
Bureau meteorologist Jonathan How said when two systems of low pressure come into contact with each other, one storm weakens while the other becomes more powerful.
“We don’t see tropical cyclones converge but what can happen is a cyclone can grow at the expense of one another,” he said.
“One system can become stronger at the expense of another.
“When systems get close to one another they interact, we need to see which system forms before we can talk about that dumb-belling.
“There is just such a variation in the modelling, the big question is if we will see cyclone strength at all.
“Regardless of whether it becomes a cyclone we are looking at heavy rainfall and flooding.”
The Bureau wouldn’t be drawn on the likelihood of downstream flooding of the Barron River delta.
“The flood team is assessing day-by-day, and once we have more confidence we will put the flood watch out,” he said.
According to rain accumulation models more than 500mm of rain could fall between Thursday the end of next week on the Cassowary Coast, while around Cairns more modest totals of up to 300mm have been predicted.
Coral Sea tropical lows
As a slow-moving tropical low off the Cairns coast strengthens in the next 48 hours along with two others in the Gulf and northeast Coral Sea, more heavy rain is forecast to batter the region, with many roads already cut by floodwater.
Flooding, landslides and trees falling on roads have resulted in delays for drivers heading to Cairns from the Atherton Tablelands and the south via the Bruce Highway.
National Route 1 between Ingham and Cardwell remains closed after the Seymour River broke its banks overnight.
Peets Bridge at Goldsborough and the Gillies Range road are also closed, along with a number of smaller road across Cairns’ southside.
The small town of Babinda south of Cairns copped 346mm of rain in the 48 hours to 6am, with more on the way.
While the low is currently hugging the coast and is slow moving, it is likely to drift away from the coast on Wednesday and Thursday before moving back towards the coast from Friday.
Strong to gale-force winds may develop south of the low on Friday or the weekend.
The risk of becoming a tropical cyclone increases to moderate on Saturday and Sunday.
Relentless rainfall across the region since Monday this morning caused a landslide on the Kuranda Range road, closing the highway for some time.
It has since reopened but drivers are warned there could be debris on the road and time delays, with some motorists reporting a travel time of up to two hours between Top of the Range and Smithfield.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonathan How said the rainfall, combined with the potential for a cyclone, is part of what’s known as a “monsoon burst”.
“It’s pretty common whenever you get a monsoon burst to see a pick-up of tropical activity,” Mr How said.
Although the official monsoon season has not yet started, he noted for Northern Queensland, it is significant because the first monsoon burst could also bring the first tropical cyclone.
“It’s all sort of connected.”
“We’re keeping an eye on whether we can declare a monsoon and then whether or not a tropical cyclone forms,” Mr How said.
Rainfall totals
From 9am on Monday to 6am on Wednesday, Cairns Racecourse had recorded 321mm of rain, while 236mm fell on Tully.
Gordonvale and Diwan, north of Mossman, both recorded 299mm within the past two days.
The highest overnight rain total was just north of Innisfail, which had 254mm of rainfall on the area while Cairns Racecourse recorded 195mm overnight.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonathan How said the downpour marked the highest rainfall so far this year.
“Between Cairns CBD down to Ingham, we’ve seen about 100mm to 200mm,” he said.
With a warning of heavy rains still in effect from Cairns to Cardwell Mr How said the big wet was expected to continue through Wednesday before easing slightly in the evening, though pockets of heavy rainfall may still occur along the coast.
“We are expecting heavy rain to continue over the next few days, but it could re-intensify over the weekend as the tropical low starts to move back towards the Cairns coast,” he said.
There will still be showers on Thursday and Friday and heavy rainfall could redevelop towards the weekend.
Cairns’ average monthly rainfall for January is 400mm.
King tides
King tides are occurring in Cairns from Sunday, January 26, to Sunday, February 2, peaking on Thursday, January 30.
Cairns Regional Council has advised motorists to avoid parking in low-lying tidal areas and not to drive through floodwaters, as tidal flooding can damage cars.
Local Disaster Coordinator, Rhys Newton, said council, supported by BOM through their Severe Weather Warning and regular updates on river height levels, was monitoring local weather.
“Yearly king tides are predicted to impact the Cairns region this week, and council crews have been out deploying road signs to advise of salt water inundation,” he said.
Associated road inundation is not expected to be greatly exacerbated by current rain, but please avoid driving and parking in affected areas.
“The Barron, Mulgrave and Russell River heights are currently below minor flooding,” he said.
“We do expect that localised flooding will impact some low-lying roads and bridges, causing interruption to localised traffic.”
Mr Newton said this was a timely reminder for residents to ensure they are prepared for severe weather.
“This includes having household emergency plan and kit, and being familiar with the Cairns Disaster Dashboard,” he sad.
The local disaster co-ordinator said the dashboard was an important tool, as a single point of reference during a disaster.
Visit disaster.cairns.qld.gov.au to view the dashboard.
Late monsoon
Looking further ahead, Bureau senior meteorologist Steven Hadley said a potential monsoon surge could increase rainfall again from the weekend onwards, and the possibility a tropical low could form in the Coral Sea.
“This has potential to develop into tropical cyclones,” Mr Hadley said.
“While it’s too early to determine exact details, people in cyclone-prone areas should be prepared and monitor updates from the Bureau of Meteorology.”
It comes as it’s officially confirmed the north is experiencing the latest monsoon onset on record.
The Bureau reported the monsoon is still yet to officially arrive, surpassing the previous late-onset record from January 25, 1973.
“The monsoon has been delayed because the broadscale weather patterns associated with a monsoon have yet to develop over northern Australia,” the Bureau said.
Despite receiving over 100mm in 24 hours – a typical wet season day for Tully – nearby publican Tish Ottone of Euramo Hotel described the deluge as “not too bad.”
“The Murray (River) Upper is getting some heavy rain so that’ll be getting close, but for now it’s pretty normal, pretty steady for us,” she said.
“Some schools have started sending kids home, but the (banana and farm) workers are still out there.
“Hopefully we don’t get flooding but for us it depends on what comes from the top (the Tablelands), and that can take normally take a day.”
Ms Ottone joked customers would start to panic soon if the heavy rain continued and do a bulk beer buy.
“They don’t want to get flooded out and run out of beer.”
The Euramo Hotel received national attention late 2023 after a photo it posted went viral, where floodwaters had reached its front door, and patrons used boats to cruise into the pub.
In the 24 hours to 9am, January 28, the Murray Upper alert had recorded 147mm and the Murray Flats alert had 183mm in the gauge.
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Originally published as Cairns weather: Babinda cops 346mm of rain in 48 hours as tropical low likely to strengthen
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