Bureau forecaster predicts an early and active cyclone season in FNQ after two years of weather respite
The Far North has dodged cyclones and a big wet in recent years but this season we’re being told to brace, and there’s a surprising summer twist in the forecast to the delight of a Tablelands farmer.
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THE Far North is set to cop a drenching with La Nina predicted to make its third straight uninvited visit to the east coast this summer.
The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a big wet for the November-to-January period and warns the tropical north to brace for “three times the average chance of unusually high rainfall”.
It even has the Queensland’s premier urging residents to expect cyclones as “early as November”.
Bureau forecaster Jonathan How said Cairns could expect the typical wet season to return after a hiatus in 2021 to 2022.
“Very much the next three to four months will be the main wet period,” Mr How said.
“Cairns, and pretty much all the way up and down the Cassowary Coast, we’re looking at 70 to 75 per cent chance above average rainfall, increasing to above 80 per cent chance inland from Mareeba.”
Redhill Farming owner Anthony Trimarchi said it was always good to have more rain for his crops.
But too much and the ground could get waterlogged, he said.
The company have the Tolga Sunflower Farm and Mr Trimarchi said it could harm the flowers if too much rain came at the wrong time around harvesting in November.
“Right now it wouldn’t worry us if the sunflowers had a bit of rain,” he said.
“It would actually help us but when we are harvesting it could be an issue.”
Mr Trimarchi said he was pleased to hear the rain was forecast to stop by about March/April, around the time of the peanut harvest.
Mr How said maximum temperatures seemed to be above average along the Tropical Queensland Coast.
“Last summer we did see drier conditions,” Mr How said.
“Generally speaking, the conditions are now there for more rainfall.”
But the questions swirling in forecasters’ minds seem to concern the likelihood of cyclones, especially as FNQ has been mostly spared of such calamities in the past two wet seasons.
“The waters off Queensland are very much warmer than usual … coupled with that is not just an expected earlier start to the tropical cyclone season, but also a more active cyclone season,” Mr How said.
This year’s model of La Nina is, however, expected to be different to previous editions, according to Mr How, but in a way that is likely to be a relief for Far Northeners.
“This particular La Nina will be different because we are expecting it to weaken off early next year,” he said.
“Last summer we did see La Nina continue into … March – all that rainfall coming into Autumn. But in this particular one we are expecting it, at this stage, to weaken.
“From there, it is looking to be a little bit more of a drying pattern late summer to early autumn.”
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Originally published as Bureau forecaster predicts an early and active cyclone season in FNQ after two years of weather respite
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