Germany on eve of elections under shadow of US-European rift

Germany on eve of elections under shadow of US-European rift

Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, has held a stable lead in voter surveys

German politicians made a final scramble for votes Saturday on the eve of crucial elections in which conservatives are favoured to win despite the dramatic rise of the far right.

Sunday's vote comes at a time of upheaval for Europe and its biggest economy as US President Donald Trump has ended a united Western stance on the Ukraine war by reaching out to Russia.

"Tomorrow we will win the elections and then the nightmare with this government will be over," conservative leader Friedrich Merz confidently told a jubilant crowd in Munich, vowing to be a "strong voice" in Europe in turbulent times.

Trump's threats of a trade war spell more trouble ahead for Germany, after its economy has shrunk for the past two years, and as it faces bitter social polarisation on the flashpoint issues of immigration and security.

The mood has been inflamed by a series of bloody attacks, most recently a stabbing that badly wounded a 30-year-old Spanish man at Berlin's Holocaust Memorial on Friday, with the Syrian suspect thought to have an anti-Semitic motive.

Sunday's vote is being held more than half a year ahead of schedule after Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition between his Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business FDP collapsed in early November.

Centre-left Scholz took to the stage in his Potsdam constituency, just outside Berlin, to spell out his solutions to Germany's ills.

His Social Democrats are lingering on around 15 percent in the polls, while Merz's CDU/CSU bloc has held a stable lead in voter surveys with some 30 percent of support.

- Far-right rise -

The vote looks set to deliver a historic result for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been polling in second place on around 20 percent, boosted by anger over a spate of deadly knife attacks and car-rammings blamed on migrants.

Just 10 days before the election, an Afghan man was arrested for ploughing a car through a street rally in Munich, killing a two-year-old child and her mother and wounding dozens. 

The AfD has had strong support from Trump's inner circle, with tech billionaire Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance speaking out in support of the party.

Halting the rise of the AfD was a "central task" of the election, Scholz told constituents in Potsdam.

"Uncertainty about the future has increased and the answer to this must be to ensure that our country is still as far ahead in 10, 20, 30 years as we are today," Scholz urged at the campaign event.

The incumbent in the chancellor's office stressed his support for Ukraine and called for more spending to boost Germany's defences.

"We have not left Ukraine alone, that should not and must not happen in the future," said Scholz, whose three years in office have largely been defined by Russia's invasion.

"We must ensure that Europe is strong enough on its own so that we can use deterrence to prevent war in Europe."

- Coalition complications -

But Merz, appearing certain he will cruise to victory of Scholz and his allies, told supporters that "the left is over". 

"There is no left majority and no left politics anymore in Germany," Merz told a raucous beer hall, sketching out a plan to curtail benefits, cut red tape and tighten immigration.

With the conservatives heading the next government, Germany would have a "strong voice in the European Union" again at a crucial time for the continent, he said.

"Europe must become stronger again and Germany must become more involved in the European Union," Merz said.

And in the era of Trump, Europe needed to walk tall to be able "sit at the main table and safeguard our interests vis-a-vis Russia and China".

Even after an election win on Sunday, Merz could face numerous obstacles on the path to power.

He would need the support of at least one other party to form a government -- most likely Scholz's Social Democrats or the Greens, based on polls. 

"Forming a coalition is likely to be very difficult indeed," said Jacob Ross, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

"Nevertheless, it would be in Germany's interest to have people in place in Berlin who are capable of acting as quickly as possible."

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Originally published as Germany on eve of elections under shadow of US-European rift