NT Budget: Territory population forecast to grow by 5000 over four years

THE Northern Territory’s population is finally expected to slowly grow again after three years of decline and increase by 5000 people over the next five years, according to budget forecasts.

• Chief Minister Michael Gunner rejects federal government’s population forecast for the NT
• NT population gets a boost as more than 4000 interstaters relocate to the Territory in past two months

THE Northern Territory’s population is finally expected to slowly grow again after three years of decline and increase by 5000 people over the next five years, according to budget forecasts.

The 2020-21 Budget forecasts the Territory population, which was 245,000 in the March quarter, will increase by 0.2 per cent this financial year largely due to weaker interstate migration.

This growth is forecast to gradually improve over the coming years, with the population increasing by 0.4 per cent in 2021-22, 0.7 per cent in 2022-23 and 0.9 per cent in 2023-24.

The projections are a stark contrast to those outlined in the federal budget, which forecasts the NT population will decline by 7000 over the next three year.

Chief Minister Michael Gunner said he rejected the federal government’s assumptions when they were released last month and flagged the NT budget’s population projections would be noticeably different.

The NT Budget outlines that its forecasts are based on the assumption that Australia’s borders will reopen from late 2021, with a gradual resumption of migration and overseas travel.

“As the economy recovers from the negative impacts of COVID‑19 and new projects commence, population growth is expected to strengthen,” the budget papers read.

“The improved growth outlook is supported by a number of significant construction and resource projects commencing, including the Darwin ship lift, major defence projects, such as upgrade works at Larrakeyah, HMAS Coonawarra and Robertson Barracks, and the CDU city campus as part of the City Deals project.”

However, NT Property Council executive director Ruth Palmer said the government needed to be realistic with growth projections.

“Unfortunately we have seen committed projects disappear off the project list which has created a level uncertainty,” she said.

“Pre-COVID we saw 21 negative quarters of population. The NT Government’s population prediction is starting from a diminished base, 0.2 per cent of the NT population. This equates to 491 people.

“We will, and have already seen an increase from COVID-19 refugees for 20-21, however, many of these will be of a temporary nature and are likely to not stay in the Territory for the long-term.

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‘The key is to secure and realise major projects. Jobs equal people, sustainable economic growth equals people, we need to see population growth projections over a 3-5 year period as major projects and real reforms should lead to permanent and sustainable jobs.”

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