Damning stat in radio ratings spells disaster for Kyle, Jackie O

Industry insiders say a sneaky stat in this week’s ratings could ruin Kyle and Jackie O’s plans to dominate national radio.

On the surface it appeared as if Kyle and Jackie O improved in the latest round of radio ratings from Melbourne.

But industry experts say that wasn’t the case at all.

They say the high-profile pair were actually dealt a crushing blow which could affect their plans to expand into more cities in the future.

Radio ratings 101

First, a quick explanation about how radio ratings actually work.

The main figure that tends to be reported on is each show’s audience share – that is, out of all the people listening to radio at a certain time, the percentage of people who are listening to each show.

A show’s audience share is determined through a combination of two key metrics.

The first is cume, short for “cumulative audience”, which is the total number of different people who listen to a station for at least eight minutes during any time period.

And the second is TSL, short for “time spent listening”, which is an estimate of the amount of time a station’s cumulative audience spends listening during a specified time period.

Kyle and Jackie O are a hit in Sydney, but they’ve had a slow start in Melbourne.

What happened in the latest ratings?

Kyle and Jackie O’s incredibly successful Sydney breakfast show started broadcasting into Melbourne on April 29.

Their expansion into the city meant that the previous breakfast show on KIIS 101.1, Jase and Lauren, was axed late last year.

In the last round of radio ratings, released July 9, Kyle and Jackie O came in as the sixth highest rated FM breakfast show in Melbourne (audience share), but picked up 48,000 new listeners (cume) who tuned in to hear what all the fuss was about.

However it was a different story when the latest round of radio ratings was released on Tuesday.

Kyle and Jackie O’s audience share went up a tiny bit from 5.9 per cent to 6.1 per cent, but they lost 11,000 listeners (cume), and it’s that stat that industry insiders say is damning and could spell disaster for the show’s future outside of Sydney.

“The initial trial phase where there may have been some general curiosity for the show is now over, and the audience that were likely to sample it have, and most have left,” Game Changers Radio: Melbourne Radio Wars podcast host Craig Bruce told news.com.au.

At the start of the year, Kyle boldly predicted his radio show would be number one in Melbourne by the end of 2024, but it’s currently ranked fifth (with an audience share of 6.1) and Mr Bruce doubts that’ll change anytime soon.

“I think this is going to be the high watermark for them this year,” he said on the latest episode of Game Changers. “I don’t think it’s going to get any better.

“There’s no indication of any kind of momentum around that show.”

All the momentum is with Jase and Lauren, who were picked up by Nova after they were axed by KIIS FM.

They currently have the number one FM breakfast show in Melbourne with a 9.9 per cent share, just ahead of Fox FM’s Fifi, Fev and Nick who have a 9.6 per cent share.

“I know it’s the Melbourne radio wars, but as Cold Chisel said, the war might be over now already,” Mr Bruce said.

Craig Bruce, a former radio executive, hosts the Game Changers podcast.

Why Kyle and Jackie O aren’t rating in Melbourne

Mr Bruce and his Game Changers co-hosts, Wade Kingsley and Irene Hulme, all agree that Kyle and Jackie O is “one of the world’s best breakfast shows”.

They’ve dominated Sydney radio for years, in fact Kyle and Jackie O have been the number one FM breakfast show for 45 ratings surveys in a row (there are 8 surveys each year).

But the Game Changers hosts say there are a few reasons why Kyle and Jackie O have failed to make a dent in Melbourne.

The first is that they’re up against much stronger shows down south than they are in Sydney.

“There’s usually two dynamics you need to happen when you’re trying to move consumers from one product to another in the same category,” former Nova and Southern Cross Austereo executive Wade Kingsley explained on Game Changers.

“One is you have to put out a superior product … (the other) is that people have to be dissatisfied with their current choice.

“Fox FM’s breakfast show and now Nova’s breakfast show have those bolted-on audiences and they really love what they’re getting,” he said.

“The trouble for Kyle and Jackie at this stage … sure, they put on a great show, but if no one’s in the market for one, they’re fighting over a small piece of pie.”

Nova's Jase, Lauren and Clint.

Fox FM’s Fifi, Fev and Nick.

Another problem for the KIIS FM duo is their extreme content.

“The Kyle and Jackie O Show is about porn,” Mr Bruce said. “I’m sorry, but it is.”

“Ideally, (their show) should be edgy (and make listeners think), ‘I can’t turn off the radio … I don’t want to miss a minute.’

“But right now, it (makes listeners think), ‘I can’t listen with anyone else in the car.’”

The third factor working against Kyle and Jackie is the fact they broadcast from Sydney and not Melbourne, meaning they can’t reflect what’s happening in the city anywhere near as well as their rivals do.

“The best way to gain quick cume advantages is ‘seize the moment’ style tactics,” Mr Kingsley said on Game Changers, referring to content about breaking local news events.

“Kyle and Jackie … are going to struggle with the ‘seize the moments’ because they’re not in the market.”

National dreams dashed?

For years, Kyle has been pushing for The Kyle and Jackie O Show to be rolled out nationally, meaning local shows in each market would suffer the same fate that Jase and Lauren’s did last year.

Kyle and Jackie O are currently broadcasting in Sydney and Melbourne, with rumours Adelaide and Brisbane could be next.

But the show’s lacklustre ratings in Melbourne may see those plans put on the backburner.

“They will have to network the show at some point to pay for their salaries,” Mr Bruce said on Game Changers, referring to Kyle and Jackie O’s mega $200 million 10-year deal.

“So what will happen in Brisbane and Adelaide? Well, (based on Melbourne’s results) we have a big enough sample size to know exactly what is likely to happen in those markets, which is not much,” he continued.

“It’s going to be hard work for them to grow any audience outside of Sydney, based on the sample size that we have right now … and that’s a win for local content.”

Originally published as Damning stat in radio ratings spells disaster for Kyle, Jackie O