Only the federal election will open the Aussie border

There will be no move to open Australia’s borders until at the very earliest, around 11pm, on the night of the next federal election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison at Parliament House, Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

EARTH to openers: read my lips. There will be no opening of the international border under a government I lead this side of the federal election.

Indeed, there will be no movement, such as a supposed “timetable”, to opening — although I’m totally mystified what such a “timetable” could be, as are indeed the clueless “openers” — until at the very earliest, around 11pm on election night.

Yes, two years ago the Prime Minister — or to use his formal title, ScoMo — announced he believed in miracles; but I doubt even he would trust an even bigger miracle if he opened the border before the election and the virus arrived and took off.

So to the question: when will the border be opened?

The answer is: tell me the date of the federal election, as the clock to reopening and indeed even any discussion of reopening starts ticking, as I wrote, about 11pm on election night.

And maybe this time — assuming he won — ScoMo would credit (his) good government as opposed to Divine Intervention.

I might have missed it, but I’m not aware that this very basic point has been made aggressively and emphatically by the commentariat.

More specifically, I’ve not seen the PM continually confronted by the media at every opportunity to deny that opening is directly linked to and will only be considered after the election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Parliament House, Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Two things should have made this obvious. First, the way state governments got huge political brownie points for closing their borders; and they were only closing them against fellow Australians in virtually virus-free contexts.

Secondly, ScoMo’s own actions in relation to India: delaying any returns for some weeks, and then only allowing returning Australians who had tested negative and still had to go into two-week quarantine.

So, the PM who saw the Liberals reduced to two seats in WA and personally signed off on the very controlled return of Australians from India, is going to announce “Open Sesame” for tens of thousands of non-Australians to start flooding back ahead of the election (and when we are still essentially unvaccinated)?

Oh sure, but I’d like to know on what planet in which alternative universe that ScoMo resides. In this reality, that would not even be a poor risk-reward trade-off; it would be all political suicide risk and zero beneficial trade-off. This is underwritten by the strength of the economic rebound, in a virus-free, walled-Australia context.

To most Australians we seem to be getting along very nicely thank you, without foreign tourists and 200,000-plus migrants plus back-backers, students and other short-term visa holders.

The business sector might want open borders but I haven’t seen too many massed demonstrations demanding it.

So the first and most important question is when is the election held? Tell me that and I’ll give you that precious timetable to reopening, maybe.

The election can be held from July and must be held before May next year. The short answer as to timing is that it will be when ScoMo is superconfident he can’t lose and preferably will win big.

Whether such an expectation translates to reality, assuming he gets to put it to the test, only time will of course tell.

Two very different things have erupted which play very potently into timing. The NSW state by-election in the Upper Hunter and the first community transmitted cases in Victoria for something like three months.

Having 78 per cent of voters voting against Labor must be very tempting. Strike while the (coal?) iron is hot. This is reinforced if the Victorian breakout fizzles out.

But a Victoria heading back to some sort of lockdown would be politically destabilising for ScoMo & Co even though it would be Victorian Labor’s fault.

Originally published as Only the federal election will open the Aussie border