FutureNT ‘23: Fyles confident speed-bumps won’t slow the road to $40bn economy

A year on from the Territory government laying out its path to reaching the ambitious $40bn economy, some hurdles remain – as does the confidence of success.

Since last November’s Future Northern Territory conference, the NT government has ticked off two key economic announcements in the ambitious pursuit towards hopefully ticking off a third.

During a busy few weeks in May and June, the government approved onshore gas development in the Beetaloo Basin and announced five future tenants for the Middle Arm sustainable precinct.

Potentially two of the biggest NT developments since Inpex built its LNG plant at Middle Arm, both are nationally significant projects that, if completed, are expected to have a profound impact on the Territory economy.

Anti-housing activists blockade the DHA site at Lee Point. Picture: Sierra Haigh

Predictions of up to 20,000 direct and indirect jobs are forecast if Middle Arm reaches capacity and up to 6000 if the Beetaloo is developed, bringing with it billions in investment.

The third, though not as straightforward, is why the government is risking political capital taking on its electoral base in the interests of economic growth.

Putting reality over ideology and economic growth over NIMBYism, Labor has adopted the ambitious target set by the Territory Economic Reconstruction Commission to grow gross state product to $40bn by 2030.

Without change the economy would have organically reached $35bn by 2030, and it currently sits at about $26bn.

To achieve the target, the Territory will need to sustain an average gross state product growth rate of 3.9 per cent. The 2023-24 budget forecast a 5.1 per cent GSP decline in 2022-23.

Development at Middle Arm is key to achieving a $40bn economy. Picture: Glenn Campbell

The government knows the challenge is real and has maintained the target despite the pandemic offering a plausible excuse to change the timeline.

Chief Minister Natasha Fyles said the NT budget’s forward projections only included projects that have reached final investment decision.

She said the $40bn target was meant to be ambitious.

“What’s the point of setting an easy target?” she said.

“I know we can achieve it because I see how hard people are working – across the public service and across the business community – to build the Territory’s future. We’re having a crack at it, I can tell you that.

“Budget 2023 forecasts we will reach $27bn by 2026/27, but this only includes projects that have reached final investment.

“Additionally we have over $36bn sitting in the pipeline waiting for final approval over the next few years which will well and truly help us reach that goal.”

The Middle Arm announcement is high on the Chief Minister’s achievements over the past year.

The Open Cut at the official opening of the Finniss Lithium mine last year. Picture: Glenn Campbell

“We are continuing to work to make our Middle Arm Sustainable Precinct ready for investors so they can create jobs as soon as possible,” she said.

“From power and water supplies, access roads, shared infrastructure, advancing precinct-wide environmental assessments and approvals.

“We’re working on this every day, and we won’t be slowed down by the baggers and blockers trying to drag it down.

“We already have agreements with five proponents, representing billions of dollars of investment and thousands of jobs, to progress their work at Middle Arm over the next 12 months.

“Saying no to Middle Arm means saying no to solar, green hydrogen, and critical minerals – well I’m saying a big yes to all of these things.”

Beetaloo and Middle Arm are the NT’s largest private infrastructure projects since Inpex.

Other highlights were Finniss Lithium opening its lithium mine in December and starting work on a second mine this month, signing off on the Pepper Inquiry into onshore gas development and $1bn in processed infrastructure payments across the NT including road upgrades, the State Square precinct, spending on health, land release and housing as well as the opening of STEAM centres at Dripstone High School and another under construction at Katherine.

The TERC identified several key shortcomings in the NT economy including falling private investment, population decline and a weak growth in living standards.

It recommended focusing on mining and energy, national security and defence, tourism, manufacturing and agribusiness to drive future growth.

Front cover of the TERC final report

It also recommended diversifying the economy, charting a path towards renewables and to focus on gas as a feedstock and power source.

“This is not business as usual; it requires a systemic shift in the role of government, from facilitating investment to one of actively pursuing and winning investment for the Territory,” the TERC warned.

Another key TERC warning – made more significant by recent events – was to actively de-risk investment to the Territory “to be better than its competition … It is time to take the red carpet to the investor”.

The red carpet might have been rolled out, but the pathway leading there is often unpassable.

Last September the Federal Court blocked environmental approvals previously granted by regulator NOPSEMA for Santos to develop the Barossa gas project, despite the company consulting TOs since 2016.

Chief Minister Natasha Fyles targeting Teals and trolls. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The project’s closest point is 7km offshore from Melville Island and a proposed processing facility is about 140km offshore.

Soon after, the Commonwealth intervened to suspend the Defence Housing Authority’s Lee Point housing project after the arrival of a migratory bird then, last month, on cultural grounds when Larrakia Elders protested.

In 2021 Traditional Owners also stalled a $200m hotel and apartment complex project at Little Mindil and Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has intervened in pastoral land clearing.

Darwin's Civic and State Square precinct is set to undergo a $88m revitalisation. Picture: Supplied

Referencing interstate politicians and organisations trying to block development as “teals and trolls” for interfering in the NT economy, Ms Fyles said investors nonetheless respect the processes and welcome the certainty.

“They want to do the right thing,” she said.

“Attracting investors to the Territory is incredibly important, but so is the protection of our community, environment and areas of cultural significance.

“I think investors and developers understand that with any project they want to undertake also comes a social responsibility to uphold important community values.

“This is not only the expectation of our government and the community, but it is also the expectation of their shareholders as well.”

FutureNT will be held on Friday September 8 at Mindil Beach Casino Resort between 11.30am and 2.30pm.

Tickets can be purchased from https://futurent2023.splashthat.com/