Future NT 2025: Mark McCrindle maps out pathway for population and economic growth

A leading demographer has detailed a pathway to population growth. Read his vision.

Despite net interstate migration numbers that have trended negative for most of the century, demographer Mark McCrindle believes the rest of Australia is open to a move to the Territory if there’s jobs, housing, liveability and citizens feel safe.

McCrindle acknowledges the challenges of growing and retaining population when, for much of the year, there’s stifling desert heat or tropical humidity, but said Australians were more mobile than ever, and were open to leaving comfortable - and mostly temperate - southern lifestyles to move north.

Demographer Mark McCrindle from McCrindles

“If we look at internal migration, the last census showed we had a higher number of people living in a new address than five years earlier than ever before, so there is mobility,” he said.

“With internal migration there are winners and losers and Queensland and WA, particularly Perth, have been massive winners as people go to where the jobs are, where the growth is and there’s better affordability than the southern capitals they’re coming from.

“That’s the big shift and the extent to which Darwin particularly can attract that across from the other capitals is a key factor for the future.”

Known for coining the snappy Generation Alpha tag, McCrindle will be a keynote speaker and panelist at the NT News’ Future NT 2025 economic forum, where his future-focused approach to demography will be heavily informed by the past.

Brigadier Doug Pashley CSC, Luke Gosling OAM, MP, Richard Marles Deputy Prime Minister of Australia and Brigadier Colin Bassett at Robertsons Barracks. Defence will have a major role in the Territory in coming years. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

“Firstly we’ve all got to be futurists,” he said.

“We’ve got to look at the possibilities and confront the challenges and trends and be data driven in decision making. I’ll be sharing some of the demographics and some of the forecasts around that.

“Secondly, I’ll apply a generational lens where we look at what the next generation is looking for, and what those opportunities are and thirdly, what are the key factors people look for beyond affordability, such as liveability and lifestyle?

“What are some of the basic building blocks in the Territory, such as high employment earnings, and how can that be built to mean population growth and retention?”

McCrindle will talk about the importance of government investment through Defence, health care, culture and education as well as the support it lends to private sector developments around onshore gas, rare earths and critical minerals endowed to the Territory.

Cracker night highlighted the differences between the NT and rest of Australia. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

Darwin, he said, must avoid the trap of thinking like a southern capital and plan for growth from the perspective of a regional city that will require a mix of government and private investment to grow.

“It’s government and the particular investments that it makes that is going to build the Northern Territory’s population base,” he said.

“Population growth leads to economic growth. It’s a virtuous cycle.

“And it doesn’t take too many people up or down when you’re dealing with a small population for property prices to drop or more ‘for lease’ signs to go up in the shopping strip. “So that volatility is a big challenge but it can be turned around.

“It comes back to those fundamentals of social cohesion and the benefit of a city’s brand really being built by the basics of people feeling safe, and knowing they live in an area where there’s a strong future there.

“As people decouple work from location, they’re able to move to where there’s the lifestyle, the affordability and have a new approach to life, and the Territory offers all of that.

“Cracker night last week was brilliant from a Territory branding perspective and it’s those things that can get people to nod their heads and say ‘okay, there’s an option there’.”

Tickets are on sale now for the Future NT 2025 economic forum which will be held at Mindil Beach Casino Resort from 11.30am on Friday, July 18.

Click here for more information and to purchase tickets.