Charles Darwin academic Dr Rakesh Gupta has criticised the lack of ambition in the CLP’s first budget

Two consecutive years of forecast negative economic growth in this week’s budget has worried one observer. Read why he’s concerned.

Dr Rakesh Gupta at his desk in the Danala Building.

The CLP Government’s low-growth, high-debt budget has earnt a withering rebuke from a top Territory economist.

First-time Treasurer Bill Yan on Tuesday delivered a law-and-order budget that saw infrastructure spending projections revised down by $1 billion and negative economic growth projected in the next two years.

The budget projected higher unemployment, higher cost of living, higher debt and a larger deficit than forecast for 2025-26, as well as consecutive years of shrinking state final demand – a measure of economic activity.

In 2025-26 Treasury forecast unemployment would increase to five per cent, the CPI rate to 2.9 per cent, net debt would hit $12.2bn and the deficit would peak at $265m.

Last year’s budget forecast 4.8 per cent unemployment, 2.5 per cent CPI, $11bn net debt and a $31m operating surplus.

Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro and Treasurer Bill Yan.

In addition, interest payments, currently sitting at $579 million, will hit $911 million by 2028-29 and $1 billion by decade’s end.

In a blow for business, Treasury also forecast state final demand would drop from 4 per cent this financial year to minus 1.8 per cent next financial year and 0.6 per cent in 2026-27.

The budget revised and retained the HomeGrown Territory home-construction measure.

CDU Associate Professor of Accounting and Finance Dr Rakesh Gupta said it was disappointing the government had missed an opportunity to put its stamp on the budget by mixing law and order policy with a growth agenda.

He said other than the shiplift project, which he said faced a whopping 400 per cent cost blow-out, repairs and maintenance and revote, the budget’s infrastructure program focused on non-income generating activities like corrections.

“The budget looks very promising because it shows a large amount of infrastructure spending, but when you look between the lines you realise it is mostly maintenance, revote or cost overrun,” Dr Gupta said.

Dr Rakesh Gupta at his desk in the Danala Building. Picture courtesy CDU/Daniel Ratanapintha.

“The only major project we see is the shiplift, which is already in the making and it could have a cost over-run by approximately 400 per cent plus.

“I understand and accept that policing and crime prevention are an integral part of the Territory government’s budget and efforts, but that has to be done along with future investment to create jobs.

“If we don’t give people hope and we’re only policing, then we’re not going to make a huge dent on crime.”

No less concerning is that from 2026-27, interest payments would exceed the Territory’s tax take for the first time.

“This is a concern,” Dr Gupta said.

“I agree with the Treasurer that this is not the time for austerity, but it’s time for growth as well. We do need to invest in growth and promoting private investment.

“We need to invest in promoting an economic climate that is focused on reducing the risk factor for private investors to be drawn to the Northern Territory.

“I would call it a hugely missed opportunity for the new government to take a risk because they would have been judged on the future rather than their past.”