Why Joe Biden’s China approach could be bad news for Australia

Australia has aligned itself with the US – at the detriment to its relationship with China. Now Joe Biden’s approach to Beijing could prove disastrous.

On Tuesday, Americans go to the polls for what some commentators are calling the most important election of the century so far. There is no doubt that the stakes are high.

On one hand, an election victory for US President Donald Trump would deliver another four years of the frenetic style of leadership that has dominated the billionaire’s time running the world’s most powerful nation.

On the other hand, an election triumph for former vice president Joe Biden holds the promise of a return to normal in Washington, with a more considered decision-making process.

And while Australia seems far removed from what’s going on in the northern hemisphere, in terms of global geopolitics, this US presidential election may be the most important to Australia in over a generation.

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The outcome of the Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden election could have a profound effect on Australia. Picture: Jim Watson and Saul Loeb/AFP

TRUMP, AUSTRALIA AND CHINA

Since the coronavirus pandemic began earlier this year, the Trump administration’s push to contain China has accelerated significantly, with Australia increasingly called upon to join these efforts.

Perhaps the most visible example of this increased co-operation is the Australian navy taking part in large scale multinational exercises in the South China Sea. A recent exercise saw American, Australian and Japanese naval vessels all sailing together, in a clear message to Beijing.

HMAS Arunta exercised with the United States Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force in the South China Sea. #YourADF pic.twitter.com/3qhNVrRfll

— Department of Defence (@DeptDefence) October 20, 2020

In recent months Australia, India and Japan have been working towards a new trilateral group to reduce their supply chain’s dependence on China and promote mutual trade.

Senior US State Department officials have also called on Australia to consider formalising the ‘Quad’ alliance of the US, Australia, Japan and India, into an Indo-Pacific version of NATO.

The Trump administration has asked a great deal of the Morrison Government in recent months and Canberra has responded by offering a strong level of support for Australia’s longtime ally.

If Mr Trump was to be re-elected on November 3, it’s likely that the United States’ efforts to contain China would continue and potentially escalate. With Mr Trump no longer facing the prospect of a re-election campaign, the gloves may well and truly come off, with the US pursuing an even more hawkish stance toward Beijing.

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US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have butted heads over a number of issues. Picture: Fred Dufour/AFP

In this scenario, the Morrison Government and/or its potential successor may face hefty pressure from the Trump administration to follow Washington’s lead.

With Beijing already targeting tens of billions a year in Australian exports to China, if Canberra does follow Washington’s lead, it’s likely Australia will continue to face Beijing’s wrath on the issue of trade and other diplomatic consequences.

CHINA’S DREAM SCENARIO

According to a report from the Office of the Director of US National Intelligence, the US intelligence community concluded that Beijing prefers Mr Trump not be re-elected.

It’s thought Beijing hopes the election of Joe Biden would lead to a more domestically focused US administration, and relations between Beijing and Washington would return to that amicable status quo of the Obama administration.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meeting when they were both vice presidents in 2011.

If a great reset of relations between Beijing and Washington was to come to pass resulting in the thawing of the brewing Cold War between the two nations, Australia may find itself placed in an awkward position.

China expert Professor Christopher Balding of Fulbright University Vietnam recently shared his concerns on Twitter, about how a prospective Biden administration may approach China.

“I am deeply worried about a Biden approach to China,” he tweeted. “They never took China seriously in office. This is Obama 2.0. No indication they really get it now.”

With the Morrison Government taking an increasingly assertive stance in its dealings with Beijing, if a Biden administration was to pursue warmer relations with China, Australia could find itself isolated as the superpowers change their diplomatic approach.

If this was to occur, especially now when global demand for Australia’s various exports is generally significantly weaker than pre-COVID, Beijing has unique opportunity to punish Canberra for its perceived misbehaviour with little cost to China.

Without the upside of enjoying some sort of dividend from backing the US, Australia may end up with the worst of both worlds if a Biden administration decided to pursue a great reset of relations with Beijing.

REALITY CHECK FOR BEIJING

Given the seismic shifts in attitudes towards Beijing from the average American in the street to decision-makers on US foreign policy, it’s unlikely Beijing’s wish of a return to amicable relations of the Obama era will come true.

While a Biden administration would likely pursue its foreign policy goals with a greater level of finesse and patience, when contrasted with the more chaotic assertive approach taken by the Trump administration. It’s probable that the more energetic stance of the US in its dealings with China and building alliances with nations throughout the Indo-Pacific region will continue.

Chinese President Xi Jinping may not get what he anticipates from a Biden presidency. Picture: Fred Dufour/AFP

However, Australia must continue to be mindful of how the relationship between Washington and Beijing evolves, as the highly uncertain and unpredictable 2020s continue to unfold.

As a global superpower, the US has the ability to completely change direction in its foreign policy in a nanosecond, often with remarkably little consequence. As a far less powerful and less globally significant nation, Australia does not have that luxury.

The coming years and decades are likely to be challenging for Australia, as it attempts to balance its trade ties with China and its security relationship with the United States. Ultimately, as tensions continue to rise between Washington and Beijing, there may be costs for Australia, regardless of who is calling the shots from the Oval Office.

Tarric Brooker is a freelance journalist and social commentator | @AvidCommentator