US midterm elections: Abortion concerns could impact Trump’s bid for fresh presidential run
It’s the hot button issue in the US that Donald Trump took credit for – now it could change the course of his presidential chances.
Make no mistake, Kathleen is against abortion. Just about any form of it.
Sipping a coffee in St Augustine, a picturesque town on Florida’s east coast, she told news.com.au that women who become pregnant but didn’t want the child shouldn’t abort – they should have the child adopted.
In the crucial midterm elections, held across the US on Tuesday, she’ll be voting for candidates who share her views.
But she’s also worried. Worried that the focus that’s been on the issue – which in June culminated in the Supreme Court stripping a woman’s constitutional right to have an abortion – will drive voters towards the Democrats.
“I do think abortion will have an effect at the election, I really do,” Kathleen said.
And that could cause problems for Donald Trump, who has supported, and indeed taken credit for the court’s controversial decision.
His road back to the White House involves the Republicans – and particularly candidates who he’s endorsed – triumphing in Tuesday’s poll.
Last week, he said he was “very, very, very” likely to run again and could make an announcement following the midterms.
But there are signs a substantial number of Americans fear the Republicans will try and ban abortion altogether. The issue could be the wildcard Democrats were hoping for to stay in power and keep Mr Trump at bay.
This week, Americans head to the polls for the Congress midterm elections, equivalent to Australia’s general election.
Both the US House of Representatives and the Senate are currently in the hands of the Democrats.
However, just a small swing could see the Republicans take the lower house and possibly the upper house too. That result could seriously hamper US President Joe Biden’s next two years in office.
Mr Trump’s not up for election, but you’d be forgiven for thinking he was, going by the number of candidates’ rallies he’s attended and dominated.
Election is about the economy – and abortion
According to multiple opinion polls, the number one issue for Americans going into the midterms is the economy – chiefly inflation.
The Democrats’ likelihood of keeping Congress seems to seesaw daily depending on gas prices.
But after the economy, abortion rates highly as a hot button topic.
“For me, abortion parallels the economy as the biggest issue,” Dawn, a retiree from Melbourne, Florida, told news.com.au.
“Why does your right as an adult trump the rights of a (unborn baby)?
“Put them up for adoption – there are other options.”
A Trump supporter, Dawn said she believed there should be restrictions on abortion. She was more circumspect if it should be outlawed in all circumstances, as many high profile Republicans have said, such as if a woman was raped or her life was in danger.
Like Kathleen, she could see the issue was divisive; that not everyone agreed with her or the most vocal candidates, many of who have Mr Trump’s seal of approval.
“I think it’s totally true that some people will vote Democrat because of that,” she said.
Mr Biden has said the Democrats will pass a law to ensure access to abortion federally if re-elected.
According to one CNN poll, for 15 per cent of people abortion was their top issue at the election. While 52 per cent said it was “extremely important”.
Of course, for some voters it’s banning abortion which is “extremely important”. But an NBC poll in October revealed pro-abortion voters had been galvanised on the issue more than those who were anti. Some 45 per cent said they viewed their vote as a push to defend abortion.
Abortion has become such a central issue because in June the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade. Since 1973, the Judgement in this case had ensured women in the US had the right to an abortion.
Now individual states can decide whether abortion is legal.
Trump takes credit for Supreme Court abortion decision
Donald Trump told Fox News in June that “God made the decision” on abortion.
“This is following the Constitution, and giving rights back when they should have been given long ago,” he said.
Arguably, it was three appointments made to the Supreme Court during Mr Trump’s presidency that paved the way for the right to abortion disappearing. Those appointments tipped the court conservative.
The overturning of Roe vs Wade was “only made possible because I delivered everything as promised, including nominating and getting three highly respected and strong Constitutionalists confirmed to the court,” Mr Trump said.
Following the Supreme Court ruling, former Vice President Mike Pence said Republicans should now aim for a nationwide ban on abortion.
“We must not rest and must not relent until the sanctity of life is restored to the centre of American law in every state in the land.” he said.
Yet, survey after survey has found a majority of Americans want access to abortion to be available, at least in some form. An ABC USA survey released on Sunday found 66 per cent of Americans said abortion should be legal in most or all cases; for women voters that figure rises to 74 per cent.
And many were none too impressed with the court’s decision on the subject or the crowing from many politicians about it.
In August, a vote was held in Kansas – a conservative state – about whether the Republican-controlled legislature should now go ahead and restrict, or even ban, abortion outright.
Kansans said no by 59 per cent. There’s now a real possibility a Democrat could become governor.
The result indicated many Republican voters did not share the same degree of anti-abortion views of the Republicans that represented them.
On election day, a further three states will also hold abortion referendums.
Petrol price worries could trump pregnancy
Some Trump endorsed candidates have now scrubbed mentions of abortion on their campaign websites. A number have even removed references mentions of Mr Trump, fearful he could turn off more voters than he attracts.
Key states have seen surges in women registering to vote ahead of the midterms. In Georgia and Arizona, some have said an energised female electorate could swing the state Democrat to keep abortion.
“Women’s enthusiasm for an issue like abortion can lead to consequential shifts in election outcomes through increases in their voter turnout and support for candidates,” stated an analysis by think tank the Brookings Institute.
“This can especially benefit Democrats,” it added.
But it’s not a given. Registering to vote is not actually voting. People in favour of abortion rights will still have to turn up to vote in a country where it’s not mandatory.
There’s also a concern that the anger among some over abortion may have peaked too soon to fully help the Dems.
“The number of families facing a decision on abortion is far less than those worrying about the economy at any given point in time,” said a White House official quoted by Reuters.
If petrol prices sway votes more than pregnancies, then Donald Trump will be rejoicing. It will keep his presidential comeback dreams alive.
And he may need that boost. According to an NBC poll, his popularity has been sliding for more than a year with only a third of Americans seeing him in a favourable light.
Some voters have told news.com.au that they thought his “time was done”.
A more complicated result will be if the Republicans do well in the midterms but Trump loyalists and antiabortionists less so.
But if the Republican over reach on abortion tips the scales even slightly back to the Democrats, then Mr Trump’s path to a 2024 election campaign may be fatally damaged.
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