US Election 2020: Predictions, result, what if polls are wrong, Trump, Biden

If you still look at the latest US election polls, things only appear to be getting worse for Donald Trump. Can he pull off another miracle?

If you still believe in the accuracy of polling, after everything that’s happened over the past four years, things only appear to be getting worse for Donald Trump.

Overnight, a new poll from The New York Times predicted the Republican would lose in four key battleground states – Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a wide margin, in Wisconsin.

If that becomes a reality at the ballot box tomorrow, it would leave Mr Trump needing a miracle.

If Joe Biden can hold onto his apparent lead in three of the four states tested in the Times survey, it would almost certainly be enough to win.

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If 2016 has taught us anything, it’s that polls can be wrong. Picture: John Moore/Getty Images/AFP

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According to The Times, Mr Trump now needs a major upset to win.

“Mr Biden has consistently held the upper hand over Mr Trump across the electoral map in polling conducted by The Times since late last spring,” the paper’s experts wrote.

“While that advantage has varied over time, and has differed from state to state, he has at no point slipped behind Mr Trump in any of the swing states that are likeliest to decide the election.”

But what happens if the polls are wrong – like they were in 2016?

Well, let’s take a look at some of the scenarios based on polling errors.

This first map is taking the polling average in each state at face value. If the polls are completely accurate, this is what will happen.

Bear in mind that the goal for each candidate is to reach 270 electoral votes. Win a state, and they get its entire haul.

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This map, based on current polls, shows Biden with a lead of 351 electoral votes to Trump’s 187. Picture: 270 to Win

It’s a Democratic landslide. But are the polls going to get everything right? No, of course not.

So, this second map shows what will happen if the polls at state level are as wrong this time as they were in 2016. (Thanks to The New York Times for doing the actual number crunching here.)

Say the polls in Pennsylvania, for example, are underestimating Donald Trump’s share of the vote by 5 per cent, just like they did in 2016. What does the electoral map look like then?

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This map shows Biden with a lead of 335 electoral votes to Trump’s 203. Picture: 270 to Win

There’s actually not much difference. Mr Trump flips North Carolina and Maine’s second congressional district.

This scenario leaves Joe Biden ahead by less than 1 per cent in both Florida and Georgia. Out of curiosity, let’s give both of those states to Mr Trump.

This map shows Biden with a lead of 290 electoral votes to Trump’s 248. Picture: 270 to Win

He still loses.

Yes, the polls might be wrong again, and maybe by a significant margin. But it’s not enough for them to be as far off the mark as they were in 2016. Mr Trump needs the error to be significantly worse this time.

– with Sam Clench