US election 2020: Violent protests expected amid fears of new civil war
Less than two days from the US election, the nation continues to be gripped by violent protests with authorities fearing they could just be the start.
Less than two days out from what’s been called the most important US election in history, the severely divided nation is on edge.
There are fears the tense situation in the US could devolve into civil war following tomorrow’s election with Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade issuing a “Do Not Travel” warning for the entire country.
“Protests and demonstrations continue in several US cities. Avoid areas where protests are occurring due to the ongoing potential for violence,” the Australian government warned.
The most recent protests to rock the US occurred in Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, Washington following another police shooting of an African American man.
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Dozens of protesters marched through Portland on Saturday, smashing shop windows and chanting “No cops, no prisons, total abolition”.
A Starbucks, a real estate agency, a bank, two phone shops and a hotel were damaged, according to The Oregonian.
Police quickly cracked down on the protest, declaring it a riot and ordering everyone to go home.
“This has been declared a riot. Members of this group have been observed damaging multiple businesses along NE Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd,” Portland Police announced via loudspeaker.
“All persons must immediately leave the area.
“Members of the group have also thrown projectiles at police and pepper sprayed community member bystanders.
“Failure to adhere to this order may subject you to arrest, citation, or crowd control agents, including tear gas and/or impact weapons. Disperse immediately.”
The riot was triggered after Kevin Peterson Jr, 21, was shot and killed by police in Vancouver, Washington, just north of Portland.
Hundreds of people were holding a vigil for Mr Peterson on Friday when tensions boiled over and protesters began to clash.
Armed demonstrators, who claimed they were protecting buildings, also gathered nearby and clashed with Black Lives Matter supporters.
Police allege Mr Peterson Jr had “produced” a gun when he was approached by officers in a hotel parking lot.
Clark County Sheriff Chuck Atkins earlier alleged Mr Peterson had shot first at deputies earlier on Friday afternoon, with investigators saying they recovered a .40-caliber Glock gun near the 21-year-old’s body.
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Meanwhile, around the rest of the US, hundreds of National Guard troops have been stationed across the country in preparation for the election.
In Texas, 1000 troops are on the ground across five cities to help police “deter any civil disturbance”, National Guard Commander Major-General James Brown said.
Shops and businesses have been boarded up across the country and in cities where there was rioting and looting in the summer, among them Portland in Oregon and Chicago.
“It is widely believed there will be civil unrest after the election regardless of who wins,” Peter Newsham, Washington police chief, told The Times.
Much of downtown Washington has been boarded up over fears of violence after the presidential election on Tuesday. Shop owners - any many Americans we’ve spoken to - fear riots and disorder whatever the outcome. pic.twitter.com/7RcHyyv0YA
— Ben Kentish (@BenKentish) October 31, 2020
Chicago Police boss David Brown was also gearing up for a busy week.
“We are all in conversations with our counterparts across the country about what we might expect. But everything is uncertain. And so we’re trying as best we can to anticipate any hazard that might happen,” Supt Brown told the newspaper.
The damage bill from the rioting, looting and arson in the months after the May 25 death of George Floyd has already been estimated at up to $US2 billion, Axios reported last month.
More than 30 people died in the violent riots, which researchers said accounted for just 7 per cent of the “overwhelmingly peaceful” protests around the country.
In recent days there has been a fresh outbreak of Black Lives Matter rioting in Philadelphia, just to the north of Washington, where thousands of looters spent several nights ransacking large parts of the city after the fatal police shooting of an African American man.
Last Thursday, Walmart announced it was removing all guns and ammunition from its sales floors – the country’s biggest retailer sells firearms in about half of its 4700 US locations – to head off any potential thefts if its stores are looted amid civil unrest.
It came as a poll released by Suffolk University and USA Today found three quarters of respondents were worried about the possibility of violence on election day. In 2016, only 50 per cent of voters were concerned about violence.
People of all races and political stripes have been stocking up on weapons and military-style tactical gear as fearful Americans prepare to hunker down. Many gun shops have sold out of ammunition, and firearm stocks are running low.
Mr Trump sparked backlash last month after declining to answer whether he would “commit to a peaceful transfer of power” — bizarrely, the reporter asked if he would transfer power “win, lose or draw” — during a White House press briefing.
“We’re going to have to see what happens,” the President said. “You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster.”
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany subsequently sought to hose down concerns, insisting Mr Trump would “accept the result of a free and fair election”. “He will accept the will of the American people,” she told reporters.
It comes as two researchers, Peter Turchin and Jack Goldstone, warn America is on the precipice of a Second Civil War amid rising inequality and social division – and that the 2020 election is the potential “fire-starter” event.
Professor Turchin, an evolutionary anthropologist from the University of Connecticut, and Professor Goldstone, a sociologist from George Mason University, have developed a statistical model that connects inequality with political instability.
They argue that the political stress indicator, or PSI, currently predicts dire problems for the US regardless of the outcome. “If those trends continue after Trump departs, then the risks and the occurrence of violence will likely continue,” Prof Goldstone told BuzzFeed. “I’m worried about that no matter who wins. The social problems are the gasoline. Trump is throwing matches.”
In a recent article published by the Berggruen Institute think tank, the pair dubbed the upcoming period of chaos “the turbulent twenties”.
“Given the Black Lives Matter protests and cascading clashes between competing armed factions in cities across the United States, from Portland, Oregon, to Kenosha, Wisconsin, we are already well on our way there,” they wrote. “But worse likely lies ahead.”
As Profs Turchin and Goldstone explain in their piece, there are several outcomes of the election that could “trigger mass violence”.
“If Trump wins narrowly in the electoral college but loses the popular vote by a large margin, there will surely be massive demonstrations protesting the outcome, calling it illegitimate and demanding allegiance to the will of the majority of Americans,” they write.
“If Trump loses, he is likely to contest the outcome as a ‘rigged’ election. But that action will again lead to massive popular protests, this time to insist that the election results be honoured.”
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