Shock poll shows Donald Trump surging back in front of Kamala Harris in key swing states
Donald Trump has not just stopped Kamala Harris’s momentum, but has overtaken her, according to one of America’s most highly rated polls.
Donald Trump has not just stopped Kamala Harris’s momentum, but has overtaken her to lead in a series of key swing states, according to one of America’s most highly rated polls.
These latest survey results from The New York Times/Siena, drawn from more than 2500 likely voters, buck the trend of other recent polls, which have near-universally shown the Democratic presidential nominee growing her lead over Mr Trump since their debate a fortnight ago.
It’s a reminder that, whatever any one poll says, the race remains on the proverbial knife-edge.
The Siena poll considered three of the key swing states: Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. The vice president doesn’t necessarily need any of these three states to win the election – her easier path lies elsewhere – but they are a fair indication of where the race stands.
None of it is good news for the Democrat.
In Arizona, which Joe Biden won in 2020, the poll has her trailing Mr Trump by 50 per cent to 45 per cent. In North Carolina, narrowly won by Mr Trump last time, he leads 49-47. And in Georgia, which Mr Biden won, Mr Trump leads 49-45.
The previous Siena poll, a month ago, had Ms Harris ahead by 5 per cent and 2 per cent in Arizona and North Carolina, respectively. The margin in Georgia hasn’t changed. So in total, these results represent a significant shift in Mr Trump’s direction.
Plug this latest poll’s results into the electoral map and you have Mr Trump on the cusp of victory, but not quite there. He would still need one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania to vote his way to push him over the winning threshold of 270 electoral votes.
The counterpoint to Siena’s survey is the latest, extremely contradictory one from NBC News, which has Ms Harris leading Mr Trump 49-44 at a national level.
That is the first NBC survey since July, when Joe Biden was still the Democratic Party’s candidate, and Mr Trump led him 45-43.
Other national polls taken since the debate, with their margins, have included: ABC/Ipsos (Harris +6), Reuters (Harris +5), YouGov (Harris +4), TIPP (Harris +4), The Times/YouGov (Harris +4), Data For Progress (Harris +4), Angus Reid (Harris +4), The Economist (Harris +4), FAU (Harris +4), Fox News (Harris +2) and Atlas (Trump +3).
So the Siena poll is an outlier. But that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate, as American polling guru Nate Silver stressed today.
“When pollsters publish results like these, you should take that as a sign that they’re doing good and honest work,” Mr Silver said.
“There’s frequently a lot of conventional wisdom baked into the polls, with pollsters either file-drawering seeming outlier results or massaging the data until they produce a number that’s socially acceptable. There’s clear statistical evidence of herding in the publication of polling results, meaning that pollsters tend to cheat by peeking off their neighbours and hedging toward whatever the polling averages say.
“After all, it’s not fun to get yelled at by partisans on Twitter, who frequently have an amateurish understanding of statistical variation in polling.
“For instance, the Times polls of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina had a combined margin of error of 2.5 percentage points on one candidate’s vote share - meaning the margin of error is closer to 5 points on the difference separating the candidates.”
In fewer words: polls are fallible, and we have no idea which of them are correct until the data from the actual election rolls in. That is still more than a month away.
It is particularly difficult for polling companies in the United States, because voting is not compulsory there. It’s not just a matter of determining whom voters prefer. The pollsters also have to figure out who is actually going to show up on election day.
Miscalculate the make-up of the electorate, even by a slim margin, and even a respected pollster’s results could end up being way off the mark.
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