US midterm elections: Barack Obama’s legacy could be ruined in one day

WHILE we’ve been fixating on a horse race, Americans have been preparing for a day that could leave Barack Obama’s presidency in tatters.

WHILE we’ve been focusing on a horse race, the US has been preparing for a day that could leave Barack Obama’s presidency in tatters.

The polls have opened in America’s midterm elections, which will determine who gets to control the Senate and House of Representatives in Washington, D.C. Mr Obama’s Democratic party is expected to lose its majority in the Senate.

That would leave the president facing a hostile, unified Republican Congress for the final two years of his term, severely limiting his ability to govern.

“I don’t want to point any fingers, but if you’re unhappy, you should blame the Republicans.”

WHAT ARE THE MIDTERMS?

Every four years, halfway between presidential elections, Americans vote for congressmen, senators and governors. This time, 435 House seats, 36 Senate seats and 36 governorships are up for grabs.

The Republicans, who already have control of the House and are essentially guaranteed to keep it, need to win six Senate seats currently held by Democrats to form a majority in that chamber as well.

They should be optimistic. Historically, the sitting president’s party has done terribly in midterm elections: the Democrats lost control of the House in 2010, and the Republicans conceded the entire Congress in 2006, when George W. Bush was president.

On top of that, most polls are pointing the right way for Republicans. FiveThirtyEight, the famously accurate blog run by statistics guru Nate Silver, gives them at least a 75 per cent chance of winning the Senate. Meanwhile, the Washington Post’s “Election Lab” gives them a 96 per cent chance.

The Capitol Building in Washington D.C. Otherwise known as a legislative house of horrors.

WHO ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS?

Mr Obama is the most recognisable Democrat alive, so you’d expect him to feature prominently during any campaign. But this time, the president has chosen to stay quiet. That’s a consequence of his unpopularity — Mr Obama’s approval rating, which was a stratospheric 67 per cent after his first inauguration in 2009, is now stuck in the low 40s.

“He has been a drag, you know. I’m just going to be honest,” Democratic Senator Tom Pryor said on Friday. While Mr Obama has popped up to support a few shoo-in candidates during the dying hours of the campaign, most of the president’s beleaguered colleagues are actively distancing themselves from him. That’s led Politico to call him “a sidelined pariah”.

“Come on guys, you used to be cool. Come to think of it, so did I.”

Another Democrat, Harry Reid, has been in charge of the Senate since 2007. In that role, he’s orchestrated the passage of Mr Obama’s signature policies, including the stimulus package and the endlessly contentious health care law, “Obamacare”.

The man who wants to take Mr Reid’s job is Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell. His real first name is Addison, and apart from that, he’s astoundingly uninteresting. That’s not just my opinion — New York Times columnist Gail Collins once accused Mr McConnell of having “the personality of an oyster”.

Harry Reid: “We need a steady hand in Washington.”

Mitch McConnell: “Wait. I’ll say something interesting. Just give me a moment.”

His Republican counterpart in the House of Representatives is Speaker John Boehner (pronounced “Bayner”, unless you have a sense of humour). Mr Boehner has spent the last four years or so trying to control his particularly strident colleagues. He’s also clashed with Mr Obama several times over the state of America’s budget, featuring prominently during the most recent debt ceiling crisis. And the one before that. And the one before that.

Mr Boehner isn’t exactly popular, but he’ll keep his job after the midterms. That means he will continue to be the most powerful Republican in Washington.

“Seriously guys, it’s pronounced ‘Bayner’. Stop saying it wrong.”

WHAT ARE THE BIG ISSUES?

Republicans are framing the impending result as a verdict on Mr Obama’s performance. Each candidate has different priorities, but the party’s leaders are promising to repeal the president’s health care reforms, lower the nation’s corporate tax rate, loosen regulations on coal power, cut spending on “entitlement” programs and increase it on defence.

“If we lose the Senate, I guarantee you they’re going to try to roll back health care legislation again,” Mr Obama said during a radio interview last month. Health care is easily the most-cited issue in Republican attack ads.

Quick. To the point. All it needs now is a lame pun.

On the other side, Democrats want to reform America’s immigration system, raise the minimum wage and make education more affordable.

“We know the Democrats are fighting for affordable higher education, dealing with college education costs,” Senator Ben Cardin said recently.

“We’re fighting to increase real wages in this country. We’re fighting for gender equity, equal pay for equal work.”

Of course, if all the high brow issues make your head hurt, you could always listen to Republican candidate Joni Ernst. She used to castrate hogs.

WILL THE MIDTERMS CHANGE ANYTHING?

If the Democrats manage to cling on in the Senate, the next two years will be much like the last two: perpetual gridlock. But with his allies still controlling one chamber of Congress, Mr Obama would at least be able to influence the agenda. He might even get a law or two passed.

The more likely alternative, with Republicans ascendant and crafting their own legislation, would be far more difficult for the president. He has the power to veto anything Congress passes, and he’d have to use it. Apart from that, Mr Obama could become little more than a bystander.

“The only way in these last two years that I’m going to be able to make even more progress on the economic front, putting people back to work ... is if I’ve got a Congress that isn’t just trying to block my agenda,” he said. “These last two years I want a Congress that does work.”

The president would like to spend the next two years polishing off his legacy, but if the midterms go badly for him, that will be virtually impossible.

“Ah, screw it.”

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

As soon as the last vote has been counted, America’s attention will turn to the next presidential election. Yes, it’s two whole years away. Yes, no one has officially announced they’re running yet. None of that matters, because Americans love to speculate.

One thing is fairly obvious: if Hillary Clinton wants to be the Democratic nominee in 2016, she will be the nominee. If she decides not to run, Vice-President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is best known for her outspoken criticism of Wall Street, are seen as the leading back-up contenders.

“I was always the best Clinton and you know it.”

The Republicans, meanwhile, have no idea what they’re going to do. There are plenty of conservative politicians who would love to be president, but none of them stand out.

Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, has a nasty habit of shouting at constituents. Ted Cruz, a senator from Texas, is considered too right wing. Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, was born into the wrong family. And Marco Rubio, also from Florida, has been called “the Republican Barack Obama”. In his circle, that’s generally not a compliment.

The situation is so dire that Mitt Romney, who lost the last presidential election to Mr Obama, is being hounded by suggestions he’ll run again. Mr Romney does lead the rest of the pack whenever he’s included in polling, and he has campaigned heavily in the lead-up to the midterms, but the former nominee insists he’s “not planning on running”.

“I’m baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack. Maybe. Or maybe not.”

Whoever replaces him in two years, Barack Obama is running out of time to add to his achievements. At best, he’ll be dealing with a divided Congress for the rest of his term. At worst, he’ll be surrounded by political enemies.

The president who was elected on a platform of hope and change could leave a viciously ironic legacy of frustration and stalemate.