Swing states that will decide the US election
THERE are 50 states, but just a handful of them actually matter. These 12 battlegrounds will decide who becomes president.
THE historic US election is just two days away and Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have been ramping up their campaigning in the key battlegrounds.
America’s voting system may be confusing, but the result will hinge upon 12 “swing states”, where a narrow margin could mean everything.
Each state has a certain number of electoral votes, depending on how many representatives it has in Congress. There are a total of 538, so the winning candidate needs 270 votes to win.
US citizens vote for representatives from their preferred party, and the electors they choose vote in the president.
These are the states to watch on election day:
FLORIDA: 29 VOTES
The Sunshine State is the ultimate battleground, with the ability to decide the election. Trump sorely needs a win here to stay in the race.
The candidates are neck-and-neck in the polls, with the Republican nominee on 46.2 per cent and Clinton on 47.4 per cent, helped by a record number of early votes by Latinos.
Barack Obama won the state by the slimmest margin of less than one per cent in 2012 and it’s still all to play for, with the candidates ramping up their campaigning here over the weekend.
Clinton addressed a crowd in the rain in Pembroke Pines, telling them she wanted to be “the president for everybody” while Trump appealed to workers in Tampa, saying, “We will stop the jobs from leaving America,” to chants of “USA! USA!”
PENNSYLVANIA: 20 VOTES
The state has been Democrat in the past six elections, but Trump is fighting hard to galvanise the Republican parts of Pennsylvania, which could give him the overall victory.
Clinton is focused on urban centres Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, where the Democratic nominee needs to lure a large African-American population to the polls, as well as white voters in outer suburbs.
Clinton has 46.8 per cent to Trump’s 43.8 per cent, but is obviously concerned, with two appearances in the state in the closing days of the campaign and Vice President Joe Biden spending the weekend there campaigning for her.
She’s holding a massive rally there Monday night local time with Barack and Michelle Obama, husband Bill and daughter Chelsea.
OHIO: 18 VOTES
Trump has consistently come out ahead of Clinton in the polls in a mostly white, Rust Belt state where the economy is a major concern.
The Republican candidate is on 46.3 per cent and Clinton on 43 per cent. Trump really needs this win to have a shot at the presidency, and his supporters are confident, with strong backing for the real estate mogul from working class men.
His rival pulled out the big guns in Cleveland on Friday night, staging a musical extravaganza featuring pop power couple Beyonce and Jay-Z, and was back for a final time on Sunday, when she was introduced by another celebrity endorser, basketball player LeBron James.
But it may not be enough to win her the black vote and get her over the line.
GEORGIA: 16 VOTES
The southern state has been Republican at the last two elections and polls show Trump leading at 48.3 per cent to Clinton’s 42.7 per cent.
But the Democratic candidate is pushing for an upset, with a sweeping 89 per cent lead among black voters, particularly in Atlanta. She is also chasing the Asian American and Latino electorate, with the latter up in early voting.
Both nominees have stayed away from headline-grabbing appearances in the Peach State, but Clinton has been airing TV ads and her campaign team is working hard to quietly identify those who haven’t voted and get them to the polls on Tuesday.
The last Democrat to win Georgia was Clinton’s husband Bill in 1992 but the Left believe the state has the potential to be an consistent contender by the next election.
MICHIGAN: 16 VOTES
The polls show put Clinton in front in the traditionally Democrat Midwestern state with 46 per cent against Trump’s 40.3 per cent. But voters chose Bernie Sanders in the primary and could cause an upset again.
The Republican candidate’s promise to tear up free trade agreements has resonated with the industrial state’s working class electorate, who are suspicious of globalisation. He also has the advantage that the state is overwhelmingly white, with the Democrats often relying on their appeal to minorities.
Clinton will visit Grand Rapids and Obama will visit Ann Arbor on Monday. Both sides are airing television adverts in the state.
NORTH CAROLINA: 15 VOTES
The historically Republican state has never before been so important in an election campaign, after swinging back from Obama in 2008 to GOP nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.
Clinton is relying on an increase in college-educated professionals in the “super battleground state” as well as a large black demographic that turned out for Obama. African-Americans make up 23 per cent of the population, but early voting among the cohort has had a worryingly slow start, reflecting anger after the recent police shooting of Keith Scott.
Trump is focusing on rural areas hit by manufacturing losses, and has a knife-edge lead of 46.8 per cent to Clinton’s 46 per cent. He appeared in Wilmington on Saturday with wife Melania, where fans chanted: “Build the wall!”, “Drain the swamp!” and “Lock her up!”
Jon Bon Jovi headlined a Sunday concert for Clinton in Charlotte, Obama campaigned in North Carolina twice last week and her running mate Senator Tim Kaine will visit Charlotte and Wilmington on Monday.
VIRGINIA: 13 VOTES
Obama took the state in 2008 and 2012, but as the polls have tightened during this campaign, both candidates have reinvigorated their TV campaigns.
Clinton is on 46.6 per cent and rating well with Latinos and suburban college-educated women, while Trump has 41.4 per cent and is concentrating on rural voters and Virginia’s high proportion of soldiers and veterans.
Kaine, who was born in Virginia, will spend Monday in Washington and Richmond, where he was once mayor. Trump appeared at a rally in Leemington on Sunday night for one of his last rallies of the election, am unpredictable move that confused pundits who expected him to choose a state where he has a better chance.
The state is also home to the town of Grundy, where Trump performed best of anywhere in America in the primaries.
ARIZONA: 11 VOTES
Trump leads Clinton by 46.3 per cent to 42.3 per cent but Democrats are banking on increased Hispanic voter registration and claiming an edge in early voting.
Clinton’s campaign team believe the second-highest Native American population in the US could also tip the scales in her favour, since the cohort often votes as a bloc.
Controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a Republican with hard line views on immigration, has caused concern with his plans to station his deputies at polling places in what some say amounts to voter intimidation.
Fears of election day chaos in the state have grown after massive lines formed for early voting on Friday. Polling places ran out of ballot papers and voters waited up to five hours in the hot sun, with some fainting and many giving up and leaving.
COLORADO: 9 VOTES
The once solidly Republican state has shifted left thanks to a growth in the Latino population and an increase in younger voters in the Denver area.
It is now one of the most dramatically swinging states in America, voting in George Bush in 2004 by more than the national average and doing the same in 2008 for Obama.
Clinton leads at 42.8 per cent, with Trump on 40.2 per cent and both have repeatedly visited the state — the Democrat with her husband and daughter and the Republican with running mate Mike Pence.
Sanders courted the student vote in Colorado Springs on Saturday, while an indefatigable Trump headed to a Denver rally straight after he was bundled offstage in Reno, Nevada, after a security scare. He urged supporters to hand-deliver their ballots, insisting the state’s “vote-by-mail” system could be rigged.
IOWA: 6 VOTES
The state voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but Trump has performed strongly in the polls throughout the campaign.
The Republican nominee has the edge in the polls with 41.7 per cent to Clinton’s 40.3 per cent and is hoping to capitalise on his popularity among white, non-college-educated voters in a mostly white state.
The Democrat has not made many personal appearances here while Trump and Pence have made several visits to the must-win Midwestern state and the billionaire businessman has a secret weapon in political star Eric Branstad.
A Des Moines Register poll of likely voters released Saturday night put Trump a massive seven points ahead at 46 per cent to Clinton’s 39 per cent.
Latinos don't vote? Don't tell that to NV Latinos. The line at Cardenas keeps on growing. Voting goes til 10. #JuntosSePuede #NVTogether pic.twitter.com/1nivjcwoPz
— Jennifer Molina (@JenMolina_v) November 5, 2016
NEVADA: 6 VOTES
Trump has had a slight lead in the Silver State throughout the campaign and remains just ahead in the polls on 46 per cent to Clinton’s 44 per cent.
But the Democrats currently have the lead thanks to high early-voter turnout on Friday, with previously under-represented Latino voters again giving Clinton the edge.
On Friday, voters in Las Vegas waited two hours to vote, even after the polls were kept open to 10pm. Trump slammed the extended opening as evidence of an attempt to rig the election by allowing people of “a certain group” special voting privileges.
The Republican candidate was rushed off stage by secret service agents in dramatic scenes at a rally in Reno on Saturday amid fears there was a gunman in the crowd. But he returned shortly afterwards to vow: “Nobody said it was going to be easy for us, but we will never be stopped.”
NEW HAMPSHIRE:4 VOTES
It may only have a few votes, but that could be vital in this close-fought election.
Trump hopes to flip the state, which voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, and is just ahead on 43.5 per cent to Clinton’s 42 per cent.
“Whoever wins New Hampshire is going to win,” Trump told a rally on Friday before returning to the New England state on Monday night.
Clinton isn’t backing down, however, adding a stop there to her schedule on Sunday, and sending Obama there on Monday.
Her top aides believe the state’s large proportion of independent voters could be swayed by last-minute news, so the new letter from FBI boss James Comey revealing the latest emails did not provide enough evidence to charge her could be a vital boost.
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