Coronavirus US: Three scenario predictions reveal disastrous outcome

A new study for the CDC has outlined three possible scenarios – one with disastrous outcomes – for how COVID-19 will impact Americans until there's a vaccine.

US President Donald Trump might be ready to reopen America, but a study by the University of Minnesota outlining three possible scenarios for how COVID-19 will impact the public has shown there could be disastrous outcomes.

The paper, from a group of scientists for the university’s Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), was released last Thursday with recommendations for the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) next steps in the nation’s coronavirus pandemic response, until a vaccine is made available.

“The steps we will recommend will be based on our current reality and the best available data,” read the study’s preface from CIDRAP Director Michael Osterholm.

“Our goal is to help planners envision some of the situations that might present themselves later this year or next year so that they can take key steps now, while there’s still time.”

Based on past pandemic patterns like the Spanish influenza of 1918, the three scenarios involve a series of repetitive waves over a one- to two-year period; the “worst-case scenario” of a monster second wave between September and November, following the path of the Spanish flu epidemic; or a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission.

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The University of Minnesota’s CIDRAP have outlined three possible scenarios for how COVID-19 will impact the American public until there’s a vaccine. Picture: University of Minnesota

While no one is predicting scenario two, the Spanish flu-like second wave, it is a possibility considering when US lockdowns began and the President’s calls to lift them in the coming weeks, despite him acknowledging easing restrictions will cause more deaths.

“Now it’s time to open up our country. We’ve got to open up our country,” Mr Trump said during a meeting today.

“We have to be warriors,” he told Fox News when asked if Americans should expect additional deaths as the country looks to reopen. “We can’t keep our country closed for years.

“Hopefully that won’t be the case … but it could very well be the case.”

In the event scenario two did occur, the first wave of COVID-19 would be “followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021”, the CIDRAP explained.

“This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic.”

North America has recorded over 70,000 coronavirus deaths and 1.2 million confirmed infections. But researchers behind a widely-cited model from the University of Washington nearly doubled their projections of deaths in the US to around 134,000 through early August, in large part because of the easing of state stay-at-home restrictions.

“We’re risking a backslide that will be intolerable,” said Dr Ian Lipkin of Columbia University’s Centre for Infection and Immunity.

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A premature easing of restrictions in the US could see the nation hit by a monster second wave of the virus even deadlier than the first. Picture: Brendan Smialowski/AFP

The first scenario outlined by the CIDRAP would see the US in a state of persistent crisis, with the current wave of coronavirus followed by a series of repetitive waves over a period of one to two years, until the disease gradually diminished in 2021.

While the waves following the first wouldn’t be anywhere near as catastrophic, they would result in a cycle of lockdowns and disruptions on cities and regions – and always the chance of scenario two occurring.

“The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures are in place and how they are eased,” the scientists wrote.

“Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures over the next one to two years.”

The CIDRAP’s third possible scenario would see COVID-19 transform into a deadlier version of the seasonal flu, bringing a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence – and the increased chance of the hospital system becoming overwhelmed.

“While this third pattern was not seen with past influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19,” the study read.

“This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.”

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Going to keep beating this COVID herd immunity drum until it is widely understood... pic.twitter.com/3ZuU33Rt6l

— David Dowdy (@davidwdowdy) April 22, 2020

In other words, the third scenario would eventually see the US develop “herd immunity” against coronavirus.

“It’s enough people being immune that over time the number of infections goes down rather than up,” associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University David Dowdy told Time.

“There are really only two ways to achieve this level of immunity. One is through development and mass distribution of a vaccine, and the other is through a massive increase in the number of people who get sick.”

It’s a way out of the pandemic the Australian Government has long ruled out.

“This herd immunity, the idea that’s some sort of path. That’s a death sentence,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison told 2GB yesterday morning.

Mr Morrison said just six weeks ago, Australia could have been on a path to a much higher death toll.

“Thousands, thousands, if not tens of thousands, and certainly in terms of people contracting the virus, potentially hundreds of thousands,” he said.

“And this idea of herd immunity, nobody’s got herd immunity. I mean the United States haven’t reached it, Sweden haven’t reached it, the UK hasn’t reached it.”

With AP