Israel’s attack on Qatar is driving the Middle East royal families together
Israel’s attack on one of America’s key allies has stirred up a hornet’s nest, with six powerful nations making bold moves that threaten to ignite the Middle East.
Israel has stirred up a hornet’s nest.
Turkey has sent fighter jets to Qatar. Saudi Arabia has signed a nuclear defence pact with Pakistan. Egypt is reinforcing its border. And the loose affiliation of Middle East monarchies is contemplating a NATO-style defence pact.
All fear becoming the next target of Israel’s military.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Operation Fire Summit on September 9. At least 15 Israeli Defence Force (IDF) strike jets, supported by drones, bombed a Qatari embassy district. Hamas leaders had assembled there for renewed ceasefire negotiations with the United States.
Netanyahu insists Israel will strike Hamas leaders “wherever they are”.
Arab states believe him.
Qatar and other Arab mediators have halted their diplomatic efforts. And Israel has unleashed its long-threatened invasion of Gaza City - pushing the besieged strip’s population towards the Egyptian border.
Now the Middle East is reconsidering its position.
“Over the past two years, Israel has received remarkable support from its Arab partners. It could not have defended itself as effectively or conquered its adversaries so thoroughly without quiet assistance from Arab nations,” argues Atlantic Council think-tank analyst Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley.
“After the attack on a US ally, Israel’s Arab partners can no longer credibly argue that their positive relationships act as a moderating force. Their unanimous condemnation of the attack on Qatar shows that they understand their vulnerability to Israel’s definition of defence as well as popular domestic anger.”
Tangled web
The Hamas Political Bureau had gathered in its compound in Qatar to discuss a US ceasefire proposal.
Two days earlier, President Trump had told the world that this new iteration of a plan to release all hostages and end the war had already been accepted by Israel.
Immediately after the air attack, Qatar’s Amir - Shaykh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani - accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of “sabotaging” any prospect for peace.
Amir Tamim is demanding that Netanyahu provide compensation for the Qatari security guard killed in the strike, and a promise not to violate the nation’s sovereignty again.
“This is a paradigm shift for the whole region,” says Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Majed al-Ansari.
“We saw a chance for the Palestinian people to realise, finally, a state, and for the Arab-Israeli conflict to be resolved with diplomatic means. Sadly, that did not happen, and the situation got worse every day.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has waded into the crisis. He condemned Israel’s “brutal aggression” and promised his support for Doha was “without limit”.
He and the other monarchs of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) say they consider the attack a direct threat to their own security.
“Israel’s strike has served as a shock, compelling all six members to re-examine longstanding assumptions about the reliability of their US security guarantor,” argues US geopolitical risk consultant Giorgio Cafiero.
“They have been willing to help provide defence against Iran’s missiles, open airspace to Israeli jets, and maintain strong and increasing economic and investment ties throughout the war’s enormous cost in civilian life in Gaza,” adds Abercrombie-Winstanley.
But this rare window of support may be closing.
“Clearly, this attack puts every agreement in the region at risk,” Al-Ansari states. “There will be direct meetings with President Trump to talk about the dangers of an unhinged leadership taking such a unilateral decision in our region, throwing stability and the prosperity of the Middle East—and especially the Gulf Cooperation Council states—into chaos.”
United Arab states
Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence treaty with nuclear-armed Pakistan within eight days of Israel’s attack on Qatar.
“Any aggression against either country shall be considered an act of aggression against both,” the agreement states.
It’s widely seen as an attempt to counterbalance Israel’s own nuclear arsenal and impose a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) background to future diplomacy. Like Israel, Pakistan has missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads anywhere within the Middle East.
“We have not named any country whose attack would automatically trigger a retaliatory response,” Pakistan’s defence minister Khwaja Asif stated. This is an umbrella arrangement offered to one another by both sides…not an aggressive pact…We don’t have any plans to conquer territory or attack anyone”.
Indian defence analyst Rushali Saha says the timing of the agreement - days after Israel bombed Qatar - is not a coincidence.
“While it may have been in the making for a long time … the signing was definitely accelerated by Israel’s military targeting of Qatar, which has thrown West Asia into turmoil,” he writes. It’s just one sign among many that Arab states are considering banding together, argues Atlantic Council think-tank analyst Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley.
“The countries within the region are starting to understand that they have leverage to constrain Israeli violence,” she argues. “The summit’s communiqué made clear that they still hesitate to use it.”
Sisi’s proposed alliance is yet to take form. But the Gulf states are already exploring alternatives to their US partnerships.
“With no alternative global or regional power both capable and willing to replace Washington in this role, the Gulf monarchies may … revive aspirations for a more autonomous, NATO-style security framework,” argues Cafiero.
“While Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories, and Yemen have become routine, Gulf states are united in their determination to prevent any GCC member from being added to that list.
“There is a growing consensus across the Gulf that Israel must face consequences for its actions to deter any future attacks on Gulf monarchies.”
True colours
“I view Qatar as a strong ally and friend of the US, and feel very badly about the location of the attack,” President Trump lamented after the Israeli air attack.
But confusion persists as to whether or not Trump knew of the attack before or after it was launched, and if he had given Netanyahu his blessing.
This has highlighted the tenuous nature of the relationship between Washington and the Arab-Islamic states, argues Bilal Saab, an analyst at British think-tank Chatham House.
“Despite being close US partners, the Gulf states only have informal security agreements,” he writes. “These are not ratified by the US Senate, and in this case did not prevent Israel from striking the Qatari capital.”
The White House has this year used its assets deployed in the region to defend Gulf states - and Israel - from Iranian drone and missile strikes.
But the US Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar did not react to Israel’s attack.
“It raises serious questions about the US commitment to Gulf security. The US failed to prevent an attack by Israel on an important regional ally,” explains Chatham House analyst Ahmed Aboudouh.
Mixed messages are only making matters worse.
Some US and Israeli officials have contradicted claims by the White House that President Trump was only notified of the strike after it had been launched.
“Regardless of the timing and which version of events is accurate, Doha’s key lesson is that the American security umbrella failed to prevent this unprecedented attack from occurring,” Cafiero adds.
“This incident has also prompted similar concerns among other GCC members, who are now asking what protections, if any, they have that Qatar did not.”
Who’s next?
“If Israel is willing to carry out such an operation with apparent impunity, what would stop it from targeting individuals deemed “terrorists” by its government elsewhere in the Gulf—such as a Houthi representative based in Muscat (Oman)?” asks Cafiero.
Turkey has already experienced several Israeli assassination attempts on its soil.
An advisor to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly responded to Israel’s attack last week by calling Netanyahu a “dog of Zionism”, adding that only Israel’s “erasure from the map” would bring peace to the region.
Hamas leaders are also accommodated in Cairo as part of longstanding mediation processes.
“Egypt’s sense of threat … has been entirely reshaped by the Israeli attack on Doha – and the subsequent warning by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel may strike Hamas again – in Qatar and other countries ‘wherever they are’,” warns Aboudouh.
Both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have expressed desire for Palestinian residents of Gaza to be “resettled” in Egypt’s Sinai.
Cairo has rejected the proposal, labelling it “ethnic cleansing”.
“Displacement is not an option and it is a red line for Egypt, and we will not allow it to happen,” Egyptian foreign minister Badr Abdelatty stated earlier this month.
Now, President Trump’s “favourite dictator”, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, has proposed a new regional alliance at an Arab-Islamic emergency summit.
He wants “an Arab-Islamic mechanism for coordination and cooperation” to present a unified front against “major security, political, and economic challenges”.
“It’s not a question of if, but when new diplomatic and military arrangements emerge in the Middle East to balance Israel’s hegemonic moves,” argues Aboudouh.
Cairo, he adds, ”fears … a broader plan to force Palestinians out of Gaza into its territory. Indeed, some Egyptian diplomats think Netanyahu may actively be seeking regional escalation in service of a ‘greater Israel’ project”.
Prime Minister Netanyahu last month told local media he is on a “historic and spiritual mission”.
“(I am) on a mission of generations — there are generations of Jews that dreamt of coming here and generations of Jews who will come after us.”
